839
FXUS63 KOAX 131108
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
508 AM CST Thu Nov 13 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Unseasonably warm Friday with the potential for record-
  breaking temperatures.

- Very high fire danger in northeast Nebraska Friday afternoon.

- 40-50% chance of precipitation Monday. This will most likely
  be rain, but there is about a 10% chance of accumulating snow
  in the northern reaches of the forecast area.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 211 AM CST Thu Nov 13 2025

Today and Friday:

Mid-level heights will build over central North America today
ahead of an intensifying trough, which will move into central
Canada and the north-central U.S. Friday into Friday night. At
the surface, a ridge is shifting away from the region to the
east early this morning with a deepening lee trough over the
High Plains. Light winds associated with the departing ridge may
allow for some patchy fog development prior to daybreak along
and east of the MO River. Otherwise, a fair amount of high-level
cloudiness is expected to linger this morning, before decreasing
by afternoon. We`ll see warmer temperatures today (compared to
Wednesday) with highs in the 60s to around 70.

A more moist boundary layer currently located across the Ozark
Plateau into ArkLaTex will be advected into portions of southeast
NE and southwest IA this afternoon into tonight with dewpoints
increasing well into 40s. That moisture increase will combine
with decreasing surface winds to support of fog development in
those areas late tonight into Friday morning.

On Friday, surface winds will switch to more of a southwesterly
direction in response to a vigorous low pressure system moving
through central Canada. As a result, a drier and warmer low-
level air mass will overspread the region with temperatures
warming into the 70s at most locations. There is a good chance
that the record high temperature at Norfolk (72/2001) will be
broken with the records at Lincoln (75/1990) and Omaha (76/1964)
also being challenged. The dry and warm conditions will also
contribute to very high fire danger Friday afternoon in
northeast NE, mainly west of a line from Norfolk to Hartington.


This Weekend:

The mid-level trough mentioned in the previous section will
continue into eastern Canada and the Great Lakes with northwest
flow developing across the northern and central Plains. A
surface cold front associated with the Canadian system will move
through our area Saturday morning with no precipitation
expected. Highs on Saturday will be cooler than those on
Friday, but still above normal with readings in the 60s.

Surface high pressure will build into the mid-MO Valley
Saturday night into Sunday with highs on Sunday into the mid 50s
to low 60s.


Monday through Wednesday:

The primary feature of interest this period is a short-wave
trough, which is forecast to move from the Rockies into the
central Plains Monday. That system will bring increasing
precipitation chances (40-50% PoPs) to the region at that time.
Model differences continue in the track and intensity of that
mid-level system and the associated surface low. The 00z GEFS
maintains a more southern track compared to the EPS/EPS-AIFS
and CMCE, which results in comparatively more members (GEFS)
showing minor snow accumulations in northeast NE. This forecast
update will continue to indicate mainly rain with areas of a
rain-snow mix in northeast NE Monday morning and Monday evening
when temperatures will be cooler.

The models depict the next storm system potentially moving into
the Great Plains Wednesday or Wednesday night, which would
bring another chance of precipitation to the region.

Highs on Monday will be a function of the storm track with
readings in the 50s currently indicated. Slightly cooler
temperatures are forecast Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 508 AM CST Thu Nov 13 2025

VFR conditions will prevail through most of the forecast period
with decreasing high-level clouds (FL200-250) today. During the
last 6 hours of the forecast, there is a consistent model signal
for fog development across portions of southeast NE and southwest
IA with KOMA the most likely terminal location to be affected.
Otherwise, south winds are expected to strengthen to 11-14 kt by
16z before diminishing to less than 12 kt by 14/00z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Mead
AVIATION...Mead