204
FXUS63 KOAX 012005
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
305 PM CDT Sat Nov 1 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry and breezy conditions are anticipated for Sunday with
  highs in the mid 50s to mid 60s.

- Dry weather continues for much of next week until late
  Thursday into Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 305 PM CDT Sat Nov 1 2025

A 541dam H5 low remains spinning over central Iowa this
afternoon. It`s diving south quickly: embedded in the NNW jet.
The low clouds and sprinkles associated with that low are now
primarily found in central Iowa and points south and east. IR
imagery shows skies slowly clearing this afternoon as the
surface high builds in behind the departing system. Winds will
become light and variable this evening before developing a
southerly procession after dark.

Sunshine will be abundant on Sunday and with the benefit of
southerly winds, temperatures will be notably warmer than they
were on Friday and Saturday. The western fringes of the forecast
area should manage lower 60s with mid-50s in western Iowa. Based
on expected deeper mixing and momentum transfer, have pushed
NBM`s winds a bit higher than its 50th percentile. Expect
occasional gusts to 30 mph. All this is expected ahead of
another weak cold front that will push through late on Sunday
night / Monday morning. Cold air advection is meager leaving
high temps in the low 60s and just above seasonal norms. A sfc
high will leave us with light easterly winds Monday night while
the winds at H5 will be streaking from west to east in zonal
flow.

.TUESDAY and BEYOND...

A keen eye can pick out a shortwave, embedded in the zonal flow,
crossing the CWA on Tuesday morning. The 00Z EC produces some
precip across western Iowa, but most guidance remains dry as
does the NBM. Have left our grids dry for now. H5 ridging allows
temps of next week to improve a bit as we continue to weather
the dry spell.

A chance of precipitation awaits for Thursday/Friday when a
positively titled trof pushes through the Northern Plains and
pulls a cold front through Nebraska. Forcing looks best across
the Dakotas with humidity best across Missouri. Perhaps we`ll
be left watching neighboring WSR-88Ds light up while KOAX
returns only the occasional biological scatter from passing
Canadian geese.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1207 PM CDT Sat Nov 1 2025

An area of MVFR cigs is working southeast through the forecast
area this morning and is now primarily affecting areas along and
east of the Missouri River valley. This trend will continue this
afternoon, leaving VFR conditions by 18Z at all three TAF sites.
Northerly winds will become light and variable this evening
before southerly winds develop overnight. They`ll become breezy
after sunrise Sunday as sunny skies prevail. Expect gusts of up
to 25-28 knots at times.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Nicolaisen
AVIATION...Nicolaisen