467
FXUS63 KOAX 142050
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
250 PM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Unseasonably warm and potentially record-breaking temperatures
  this afternoon. Very High Fire Danger for portions of
  northeast Nebraska as well.

- A cold front moves through the area Saturday morning. Cooler
  temperatures are expected this weekend, though these
  temperatures remain above normal.

- A medium chance (30-50%) of precipitation is expected on
  Monday. Rain is anticipated, but there is a low chance
  (10-20%) of a mix of snow for portions of northeast Nebraska.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 249 PM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

Today`s forecast remains on track to break records for some this
afternoon. As the ridge continues to slowly translate east across
the Great Plains, unseasonably warm temperatures have overspread the
area. Almost all locations have climbed into the 70s with a few of
our western-most locations pushing 80 or higher. It remains dry,
thus leading to Very High Fire Danger for portions of northeastern
Nebraska also. OFK and LNK are most likely to break their records
for today, but other locations may come close. It should be noted
that some high cirrus may put the brakes on these record-breaking
temperature runs. As we head into Saturday, the ridge begins to
weaken as a trough digs into the Great Lakes region. This pushes a
cold front through the region during the morning hours on Saturday.
Temperatures are expected to end up 5 to 10 degrees cooler than
today, but even this is well above normal. 60s will be common across
the area during Saturday afternoon. Similarly, another 5 degrees or
so are shaved off of temperatures by Sunday afternoon as upper 50s
and lower 60s return to our area.

Our next weather system moves into the region on Monday. The trough
currently bringing substantial rainfall to SoCal is forecast to
finally lift northeast towards the central Great Plains. Ensemble
guidance is coming into better agreement that the base of this
trough will pass over our area. In this event, cooler temperatures
are likely, but snow remains unlikely at this juncture. That being
said, there is a low chance (10-20%) that a few flakes mix in across
northeast Nebraska. This snow is anticipated to be melting as it
reaches the ground and should not cause any issues. Outside of
precipitation, near normal temperatures are to be expected. Mid 40s
to mid 50s are likely each afternoon through much of next week with
overnight temperatures in the 30s with some flirting with freezing.
Tuesday should offer a brief break in the weather before our next
weather system begins to impinge on the region late on Wednesday or
early on Thursday. This system appears to bring precipitation in the
form of rain once again, but this will be monitored throughout the
next several days.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1123 AM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. South winds
this afternoon will gradually shift to southwesterly late this
evening. A passing weather system and accompanying cold front
begins to overspread the region overnight. Ahead of the cold
front, strong low-level winds may result in low-level wind shear
at times for all terminals late this evening into the early
morning tomorrow. Any low-level wind shear will subside behind the
cold front as it moves across the area bringing a northwesterly
wind shift.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Chehak
AVIATION...Chehak