689
FXUS64 KOHX 091708
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1108 AM CST Tue Dec 9 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1102 AM CST Tue Dec 9 2025

- Look for a brief warm up and breezy conditions today and
  Wednesday.

- Very low chance for light rain/snow on the Upper Cumberland
  Wednesday night behind our next frontal passage. Stay tuned for
  the latest.

- Coldest air of the season expected Sunday night. Lows in the
  teens and upper 20s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1016 AM CST Tue Dec 9 2025

Oh, look at that. The sun does still exist. If you live in Middle
TN, you were starting to question it. Clouds have finally thinned
out and the sun made its grand reappearance this morning. We still
have some high clouds around, and while we had a chilly start to the
day, southerly flow will allow the sun to warm us up today and
tomorrow. In fact tomorrow, we might actually climb back above
seasonal normals. The problem with all of this, the warmup is ahead
of a cold front that is expected to swing through here tomorrow and
the surface pressure gradient will tighten up ahead of the front.
That means south to southwest winds are going to be gusty both days,
so it may not feel quite as warm as it otherwise would. Models are
mostly dry with this frontal passage on Wednesday. NBM is
spitting out some low rain chances, but I`m looking at forecast
soundings from the GFS and NAM and wondering whether or not the
Upper Cumberland will have to worry about orographic lifting
tomorrow night. This could lead to snow accumulation with both of
these models suggesting the perfect wind fetch and soundings that
are saturated deeply enough (-8 to -10C is plenty cold enough for
ice crystal formation on the Plateau). I`d put this likelihood at
20% or less, but we`ll monitor this over the next 24 hours and
see where things stand at this time tomorrow.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 1016 AM CST Tue Dec 9 2025

The bigger story of this forecast package is probably going to be
the next cold front due in here Saturday night and the CP airmass
that will follow. Rain chances have increased to medium Saturday
evening ahead of the front and the question will be whether the cold
air will match up with any precipitation. Right now, I`d say there`s
a low chance of this occurring on the Upper Cumberland Plateau.
Everyone else looks all liquidy. Behind the front, Canada will be
sending its best cold air mass and by Monday morning, we`re in for
some of the coldest temperatures of the season so far. NBM backed
off on the extreme-ness of these temperatures in the last couple of
runs, but it still looks like upper teens and low 20s for everyone
as the kids wait for the bus Monday morning. Current NBM probs
suggest a 50-70% chance of morning lows in the teens area-wide.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1102 AM CST Tue Dec 9 2025

The sun has finally made an appearance over middle TN and clouds
have finally become VFR and will stay that way for the TAF
period. Winds will be S to SW and gusty 20 to 25 kts. Expect LLWS
at 2000 FT overnight. A LLJ will swing through overnight that
could wring some moisture out over the northeast plateau. This
should not affect any terminal locations so have not included any
precipitation or increase in clouds or decrease VIS for CSV or
SRB.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      51  39  55  29 /   0  10  10   0
Clarksville    50  39  52  27 /   0  10  20   0
Crossville     46  34  48  24 /   0   0  10   0
Columbia       49  37  56  27 /   0   0  10   0
Cookeville     46  35  51  27 /   0   0  20   0
Jamestown      46  35  48  25 /   0  10  20  10
Lawrenceburg   49  37  56  26 /   0   0  10   0
Murfreesboro   49  37  55  27 /   0   0  10   0
Waverly        48  38  53  27 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Unger
LONG TERM....Unger
AVIATION.....12