517
FXUS61 KOKX 300623
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
223 AM EDT Sat Aug 30 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A large area of high pressure will prevail from the Upper Midwest
east into the Mid Atlantic and Northeast states through the middle
of next week. A frontal system then approaches the area at the
end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
An upper low over the St. Lawrence River Valley will track east
today and into Maine by this evening. At the surface, high
pressure centered over the Great Lakes will expand east into
the area. This will result in a dry, cool day for the area with
high temperatures likely not getting out of the 70s. This is
about 3 to 5 degrees below normal. Lows tonight will range from
the upper 40s well north and west of NYC, to the lower and mid
50s most other locations, and to the upper 50s to around 60 for
the NYC metro. In some cases, lows will be close to 10 degrees
below normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
The upper low/trough continues to translate east and out into
the North Atlantic this period. However, energy at the base of
the departing upper trough gets cutoff as heights builds aloft
and upper level ridging expands east across Canada. This will
leave a weak upper low across the northern Mid Atlantic region.
However, with a moisture-starved airmass, expect dry conditions.
Surface high pressure continues to build into the area during
this time.

Highs Sunday and Monday will be in the upper 70s to around 80
with a slight uptick each day. This is a few degrees below
normal. Lows will also creep up a bit except for those locations
that radiate particularly well. While the NBM was generally
followed, did weigh in the NBM 25th percentile to account for
those colder locations.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Key Points:

* High pressure will remain over the region Tuesday and Wednesday,
  with dry and cool conditions. Temperatures will be more like mid-
  September.

* Chance for precipitation returns on Thursday, with a better chance
  of rainfall on Friday into possibly Saturday as an upper level
  trough and associated cold front approach and move into the
  region. There is a chance that Thursday remains dry with the cold
  front slightly slowed down from previous forecast runs.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A cold front has passed southeast of the terminals. High
pressure then builds to the southwest of the terminals through
Saturday, and into the region thru Sunday.

VFR. Sct-Bkn cigs develop around 5kft this afternoon.

NW/NNW 8-12kt today, with gusts into the mid/upper teens
possible from late morning into afternoon. Winds become 10kt or
less after 00z Sunday. Chance of winds briefly becoming
southerly late this afternoon.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Winds mainly right of 310 mag thru the period, except may back
to the left at KJFK for this evenings push. Occasional gusts to
mid/upper teens possible from late morning into afternoon.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

Saturday Night through Wednesday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure will build across the waters this weekend into
early next week. Conditions will generally remain below SCA
levels during this time.

Seas may return to small craft levels at the end of next week
as a frontal system approaches the waters and low pressure
passes nearby.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through the end of next week.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
There will be a low risk at the ocean beaches today and Sunday
with 1-2 ft waves at 5-7 seconds.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DW
NEAR TERM...DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...BC/DW
HYDROLOGY...BC/DW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...