159
FXUS61 KOKX 162317
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
717 PM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will gradually build in from the west through
Saturday. The high will then give way to an approaching frontal
system that passes through the area Sunday night into Monday
morning. Weak high pressure then briefly follows Monday afternoon
into Tuesday. Another frontal system approaches and moves through
towards the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A highly amplified upper flow will feature ridging over the mid
section of the country and an upper low dropping south and east
across the western Atlantic. At the surface, low pressure will
deepen will east of the area tonight, while high pressure centered
over the Great Lakes works slowly east. A deep-layered northerly
flow between the two will keep the area several degrees below
normal, but a gradually diminishing northerly flow will prevent
the bottom from falling out tonight with no frost/freeze
headlines. Lows will range from the mid/upper 30s inland to
lower and mid 40s at the coast.

On Friday, high pressure continues to build in from the west
with northerly winds gusting up to 20 mph the first half of the
day, especially across LI and SE CT. Highs rebound some into
the lower 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The upper ridge and surface high build across the area Friday
night into Saturday, then offshore Sunday ahead of a vigorous
shortwave trough. The latter of which sends a cold front toward
the area Sunday. Southerly winds will ramp up on Sunday with
gusts of 20 to 30 mph in the afternoon, highest across the NYC
metro and western LI.

While warming aloft occurs Saturday, a subsidence inversion
will limit the depth of the mixed layer and thus the extent of
surface warming. Highs will get into the lower and mid 60s,
which is near normal. The warming trend though will become more
pronounced Sunday with many locations getting into the upper 60s,
and even the lower 70s north and west of NYC.

There is a low chance for showers during the afternoon and early
evening hours ahead of the approaching cold front. Expectation
now is for a mainly dry day with good model consensus.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Closely followed NBM guidance, with the only main adjustments to PoP
for late Monday into Tuesday.

Key Messages:

* A fast moving frontal system brings brief moderate to heavy rain
  and gusty winds Sunday night into early Monday morning *

The global NWP guidance continues to show an amplifying trough that
approaches Sunday evening and begins to go negatively tilted. The
ECMWF and ECMWF AIFS have been the most aggressive in deepening the
system aloft with stronger height falls. Based on the consensus 500
mb analysis and other mass fields it appears that much of the region
would be dry to begin the evening, but with PoPs increasing quickly
for the mid to late evening from west to east with a warm front,
which will quickly be followed by a cold front towards early Monday
morning. The winds will be strong out of the south to begin the
evening, with gusts potentially getting to 40 mph, or even getting
close to wind advisory criteria. This will have to be monitored in
subsequent forecast cycles.  Then with the warm frontal passage
winds shift to more of a SW component getting later into Sunday
night. Eventually the winds will become more westerly into Monday
morning with the passage of a cold front. Right before the cold
FROPA a band of strong vertical motion aided by a strong 850 mb jet
could yield some brief heavy rainfall, and perhaps even some
thunder. The exact timing of any convective details can be ironed
out as we get closer to Sunday.

Behind the cold FROPA on Monday look for strong dry advection,
especially in the lower levels. There is some differences in the
progression of the 500 mb low as per global deterministic NWP. The
GFS, CMC, and DWD show stronger cold and dry advection at 850 mb,
while the ECMWF AND ECMWF AIFS are more concentric with neutral
advection at 500m and to some degree at 850 mb and would keep shower
chances in the forecast through Monday and possibly Monday night.
For now going with the drier guidance as there is another trough
getting into the middle of the CONUS and should kick things along.
Expect a W to WNW wind into Monday afternoon resulting in a blustery
day, and with a pressure gradient remaining in place through a good
portion of Monday night breezy conditions could persist. The high
then settles to the south of the area on Tuesday promoting dry and
mainly sunny conditions. The next frontal boundary approaches late
Tuesday into early Wednesday with a secondary low perhaps forming
along an occluded boundary. The frontal system will likely be weaker
than the frontal system earlier in the period and looks to only
bring the chance of a few showers for mid week.

Temperatures will be a touch cooler through the period, but overall
will average slightly above normal on Monday with adiabatic
compression and downsloping, with similar temperatures into Tuesday
and Wednesday. With the winds staying up expect temperatures to
average above normal at night. Behind the next front on Wednesday
temperatures should cool slightly into Thursday with near normal
temperatures anticipated.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR conditions through the TAF period with high pressure building in
from the west.

Gusty NNW-NW winds continue to gradually subside this evening,
with the gusts possibly ending earlier than forecast. By the
overnight, 06Z gusts likely end. NNW-NW winds 10-15 kt with
gusts around 18-22 kt anticipated to begin Friday morning into
the early afternoon. Gusts may be more occasional during the
afternoon, or possibly end.


 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

End time of gusts tonight may be 1-2 hours earlier.

Gusts on Friday could be occasional, especially during the afternoon.


.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

Friday night-Saturday: VFR.

Sunday...VFR. SE gusts 20-25 kt possible in the afternoon and
evening.

Sunday night: MVFR or lower in showers. SW gusts 15-25 kt possible.

Monday: MVFR or lower possible early. Chance of showers. W gusts 20-
25 kt possible.

Tuesday: Mainly VFR, SW gusts 15-20 kt possible.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Northerly winds will produce SCA conditions across all waters
through the early morning hours Friday, then gradually
diminishing as high pressure builds in from the west. Gusts up
to around 30 kt can be expected for the first half of tonight.
The ocean waters will be the last to see the SCA go and should
see an end by early Friday afternoon. Sub-SCA are then expected
through Saturday night.

A increasing southerly flow on Sunday ahead of an approaching frontal
system will bring SCA conditions back to at least the oceans
waters by afternoon. For a portion of Sunday night some gale
fore wind gusts are possible, otherwise small craft conditions
will prevail Sunday into Monday on all the waters. More marginal
small craft conditions are likely into Monday evening for the
near shore waters, with small craft conditions likely lingering
for much of the ocean for a good portion of Monday night.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts expected through the forecast period.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
N flow gradually relaxes on Friday. Tide levels to reach close
to minor thresholds for the most vulnerable spots along the
back bays of S Nassau/SW Suffolk. SW CT looks less likely at
this time. This will all be dependent on how quickly the N flow
relaxes as the offshore flow could mitigate water levels from
reaching minor thresholds.

With a strengthening S flow and building seas Sunday into Monday,
there is a chance that some tidal piling and elevated astronomical
tides associated with the new moon of the 20th may lead to some
spotty minor coastal flooding in these same areas.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Friday for ANZ331-332-335-
     338-340-345.
     Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Friday for ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JE/DW
NEAR TERM...DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...JE
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...JE/DW
HYDROLOGY...JE/DW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...