312
FXUS61 KOKX 091157
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
757 AM EDT Thu Oct 9 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure continues to build in today and then will remain
over the area into the start of the weekend. Low pressure will
deepen and track north towards the region on Sunday. The low
will then meander south of the region on Monday, before heading
out to sea by the middle of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Sprawling high pressure builds over the northeast today bringing
the coolest air mass of fall 2025. Breezy conditions should
start the day with potential of northerly gusts 20-25 mph. These
winds should weaken in the afternoon as the pressure gradient
relaxes and the high pressure draws closer. The atmosphere is
dry with sunny skies expected through the day. Highs will only
reach the upper 50s inland to the lower 60s closer to the coast,
several degrees below normal for this time of year.

The coldest night of the season will occur tonight with strong
high pressure over the area. Have converted the freeze watch
over to a freeze warning with the expectation of widespread
temperatures around 30-32 degrees across the interior early
Friday morning. Elsewhere, temperatures should range from the
mid 30s to lower 40s. Some frost is possible close to the I-95
corridor in southern CT and for western Essex, western Union,
and western Bergen. However, held off on a frost advisory for
these zones as confidence is not high enough with potential of a
large dewpoint depression to prevent a widespread frost. Will
let the day shift reassess low temperatures and dew points to
see if confidence increases in a more widespread frost for these
areas. There is also a chance for some frost across the LI Pine
Barrens with temperatures around 32 degrees, but not enough of
the zone for any headline.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Ridging aloft and at the surface will dominate the weather
pattern to end the work week. After a chilly start,
temperatures will rebound into the lower 60s for most spots
with potential of mid 60s in NE NJ. Most of the area will
remain clear, but there is a chance for a few-sct stratocu
development in the afternoon, especially towards the coast.
Forecast soundings are indicating moisture becoming trapped
beneath a subsidence inversion around 4-5 kft, with the NAM most
aggressive. These clouds will begin increasing Friday night as
the high shifts offshore allowing winds to shift to a more
easterly direction. Temperatures will continue on the cool side
Friday night, but not as cold as Thursday with lows generally in
the low 40s inland and 40s to low 50s elsewhere.

Low pressure will begin developing off the southeast coast on
Saturday. High pressure centered off the New England coast will
ridge back towards the area with a continuation of dry conditions.
However, skies likely become mostly cloudy through the day from a
combo of southerly flow aloft and lower level stratocu. Highs on
Saturday should be closer to normal in the mid to upper 60s with an
onshore flow.

Chance for showers increase Saturday night as the aforementioned
low pressure starts tracking towards the middle atlantic coast.
There is still uncertainty on the exact timing and track of the
system with any impacts likely holding off until Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The main concern continues to be with the potential of a strong
coastal low Sunday into early next week. There is still a large
amount of uncertainty with impacts which are dependent on the exact
track and intensity of a deepening low pressure Saturday night into
Sunday near the Carolinas/Southern Middle Atlantic coast. How far
north the low tracks along with its strength later Sunday and
Monday will be the main determining factors for potential wind
and coastal flood impacts.

Key Messages:

* Strong gusty winds in excess of 40 mph possible Sunday into
  Monday. The latest NBM wind gust probabilities of exceeding 40
  mph remain near 30 percent along the CT coast and closer to
  50 percent across Long Island late Sunday through Monday. Peak
  gusts around 60 mph possible along the immediate coast

* Widespread minor to moderate coastal flooding and beach
  erosion are possible Sunday into Monday.

* A long duration rainfall is possible with average amounts of
  1-2 inches. Freshwater flooding is not anticipated due to the
  long duration and pre-existing dry conditions.

* Depending on how fast the low exits, rain chances will
  decrease significantly Tuesday and Wednesday. There is a
  chance for dry conditions both days with a slight warming
  trend.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR as high pressure gradually builds from the NW.

N winds should increase early to either side of 15 kt by 13Z,
with gusts 20-25kt. Winds diminish slightly from about 17Z-20Z
and then become N-NNE less than 10 kt after sunset.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

No unscheduled AMD expected.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

Thursday night through Saturday: VFR.

Saturday night: Chance of rain. NE winds G20kt late.

Sunday and Monday: Rain likely. MVFR cond expected, IFR cond
possible in bands of heavier rain. NE winds G40kt at KISP, G30-35kt
at the NYC metro/CT terminals, G25-30kt at KSWF.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
SCA remains in effect for the ocean, south shore bays, and eastern
Sound. Wind gusts around 25 kt remain possible on these waters with
the advisory on the non-ocean ending at 11 am and the ocean at 2 pm.
Winds and seas will continue to subside thereafter as high pressure
builds over the waters. Conditions will remain below SCA levels
through Saturday afternoon.

Winds increase and seas build Saturday night ahead of a coastal
storm that slowly tracks north up the coast. Gale to Storm force
winds will develop on Sunday, lasting into Monday. Seas may build to
around 20 ft on the ocean with potential of 5-8 ft seas on the
sound. Winds and seas will gradually begin to subside on Tuesday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Widespread rain is possible Sunday into Monday. Average amounts
of 1 to 2 inches are possible. However, no significant
hydrologic impacts are expected with this being a long duration
rainfall and recent dry conditions.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Total water levels are only expected to approach, and possibly just
meet minor coastal flood benchmarks this morning for the Nassau
County south shore bays, and early this afternoon for S
Fairfield. Impacts should be minimal.

The potential remains for widespread moderate coastal flooding
and beach erosion Sunday/Monday, via the combo of high
astronomical tides and surge generated by strong NE flow.
Breaking waves around 10 ft possible based on 20+ ft seas
offshore. Impacts will be dependent on the exact track and
intensity of a deep low tracking toward the region.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM EDT Friday for
     CTZ005>008.
NY...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM EDT Friday for
     NYZ067>070.
NJ...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM EDT Friday for
     NJZ002.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for ANZ332-
     345.
     Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ350-
     353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DS
NEAR TERM...DS
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...BG/DS
AVIATION...BG
MARINE...DS
HYDROLOGY...DS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BG