753
FXUS61 KOKX 011531
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1031 AM EST Mon Dec 1 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build from the west today and retreat
offshore tonight. A coastal low forming along the Mid Atlantic
coast early Tuesday will pass southeast of the area Tuesday
evening. High pressure will then build in for Wednesday. A cold
front will pass through on Thursday, with strong high pressure
building across from the west Thursday night into Friday.
Low pressure will then pass to the south and east Friday night
into Saturday, with weak high pressure returning Saturday night
into Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
High pressure overhead today in the wake of a cold frontal passage.
Cold air advection with westerly flow for much of the day, with
highs in the upper 30s to lower 40s. The gusty northwest winds will
make it feel a few degrees colder at times, though gusts looks to
diminish by late afternoon.

High pressure moves offshore this evening and winds become southerly
ahead of the approaching coastal system.  Early lows in the upper
20s to lower 30s areawide, with temps beginning to rise toward
daybreak.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
What`s Changed:  Snowfall totals have been lowered across the
interior along with the total precipitation across the entire
forecast area.

Key Points:

* Winter Storm Watch remains in effect for Orange County, with
  new Winter Weather Advisories now in effect for Putnam,
  Rockland and Western Passaic Counties on Tuesday.

* Coastal storm remains on track to bring an accumulating snow
  to portions of the interior, with mainly rain at the coast.

Global guidance remains fairly consistent in a quickly moving mid
level shortwave across the southeast on Tuesday. At the same time,
surface low pressure originating across the deep south heads
northeast to the Carolinas by midday Tuesday, deepening as it does
so, and tracks southeast of the local area by Tuesday night. Model
guidance has converged more or less with a track just inside the
40/70 benchmark by 00Z Wednesday, and off to the northeast by 06Z
Wednesday. Notable changes in the guidance this cycle are a
combination of lower total precipitation, along with a slight
reduction in snowfall given the more northerly storm track, and the
updated forecast reflects this thinking.

Precipitation onset should begin across the area early Tuesday as
the low pulls off the mid atlantic coast.  Precipitation will start
as snow across the interior, mainly north and west of NYC, with
While the forecast thinking of most accumulating snow either a
rain/snow mix or plain rain across the coast. As the low heads
north, the boundary layer warms under the deep southerly flow, and
this will shift the initial rain/snow line north throughout the day.
Just how quickly this happens will then feed back into accumulating
snow totals across the interior.

Most accumulating snow looks to occur from a line north of about I-
84. As noted earlier, a slight decrease in overall QPF and lower
snow-to-liquid ratios with this progressive system resulted in lower
snow totals across the board. NBM probabilities of more than 4" have
decreased across the this corridor as well. All told, still
expecting a wide 3-7" across Orange county where the Winter Weather
Watch will remain in effect pending further guidance. Have elected
to issue Winter Weather Advisories for Wester Passaic, Rockland and
Putnam counties, where 2-5" totals are likely, especially for the
highest elevations of these locations. Should model trends continue
of lower QPF with a quicker changeover, these snowfall totals will
be on the lower side. Elsewhere, 1-3" is possible with coastal
locations possibly not receiving any accumulation at all.

Temperatures rise to the mid and upper 30s across Coastal locations
will get up into the 40s. Refreezing of any standing water is likely
Tuesday night as much of the area drops below freezing.

For Wednesday, high pressure builds back in with another dry day,
with northwest flow and temps in the upper 30s to near 40.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Key Points:

* A cold front moving through on Thursday will bring in a frigid air
  mass for Thursday night and Friday.

* Below normal temperatures expected through the period, running as
  much as 10-15 degrees below normal Thursday night and Friday.

* Another low pressure system may impact the area next weekend.

An upper trough swinging across ern Canada and the Northeast will
drive a cold front through on Thu. Fropa will be dry and followed by
a quick shot of very cold air for Thu night into Fri as strong sfc
high pressure in the wake of the trough swings across in faster W
flow aloft. Lows Thu night will drop to the lower 20s in NYC, the
teens most elsewhere, and some single digits in interior valley
spots. Highs on Fri should only reach the upper 20s well inland, the
lower 30s most elsewhere, and the mid/upper 30s across Long Island.

Fast zonal flow aloft should result in the sfc high moving quickly
to the east by Fri night, and a low pressure system approaching and
passing to our south Fri night into Sat. There is still too much
uncertainty for specifics on rain/snow and stuck close to the NBM
during that period.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Mostly VFR as high pressure builds from the west today and
retreats offshore tonight.

NW winds around 15-20G25kt at the NYC metros, and 10-15G20kt
elsewhere will continue through this afternoon. Winds start
diminishing mid to late afternoon and then become light NE
tonight and into Tuesday.

Some light snow with MVFR cond may make it to KSWF and the NYC
metros toward 11Z-12Z Tue.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

No unscheduled AMD expected.

.OUTLOOK FOR 15Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

Tuesday: IFR in rain along the coast, IFR/LIFR NW in snow, with
a transition zone of rain/snow NW of the NYC metro terminals
expected in the morning. Widespread IFR late morning into the
afternoon with rain, moderate to briefly heavy at times. Precip
at KSWF could mix with rain in the afternoon before tapering off
in the evening.

Light E winds should become NE 5-10 kt in the afternoon, N 10-15
kt in the evening, then NW around 10 kt later Tue night. Gusts
20-25 kt at night, highest in the evening and at the NYC
metro/coastal terminals.

Wednesday: VFR. NW winds G15-20kt early.

Thursday: VFR. W winds G20-25kt in the afternoon/evening.

Friday: VFR. Chance of snow and/or rain after midnight with MVFR
or lower cond possible.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
SCA conditions continue on the ocean waters behind a cold
frontal passage. Winds and seas will lower as high pressure
builds in from the west late tonight into Monday.

Winds and seas increase through the day on Tuesday with the
passage of an offshore low pressure system. SCA wind gusts are
likely on the ocean waters by the afternoon, and by the evening
for the non-ocean waters. There may also be a brief period
Tuesday night with gusts reaching gale criteria. Additionally,
current wind forecast has seas reaching 5 to 9 feet for the
ocean waters. Winds and seas should gradually lower on Wed.

SCA cond likely for the ocean waters Thu morning via WSW flow
sustained 20-25 kt and gusting up to 30 kt. At least SCA cond
then likely on all waters by mid to late afternoon Thu into Thu
night as a strong cold front moves through, with some gale force
gusts possible on the ocean waters Thu evening as seas there
build to 5-7 ft. With strong high pressure quickly building in
thereafter, conditions should quickly settle down on the non
ocean waters late Thu night and on the ocean by daytime Fri.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Much of the area should not have problems with the potential of
1-2 inches of liquid equivalent on Tuesday. Minor nuisance and
poor drainage flooding is possible, especially with snow melt
and clogged drains.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...Winter Weather Advisory from 4 AM to 10 PM EST Tuesday for
     NYZ068-069.
     Winter Storm Watch from late tonight through Tuesday evening
     for NYZ067.
NJ...Winter Weather Advisory from 4 AM to 10 PM EST Tuesday for
     NJZ002.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ350-
     353-355.

&&

$$