274
FXUS61 KOKX 100532
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1232 AM EST Wed Dec 10 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure emerging from the Great Lakes Region passes to our
north, dragging a cold front across the area during Wednesday
night. High pressure builds in from the south and west Thursday
into Friday. A weak upper level disturbance will move across
Friday night into Saturday morning. An Arctic cold front will
approach Saturday night, then move through on Sunday as offshore
low pressure forms along the front. Strong high pressure will
then build in Monday as the low intensifies near Atlantic
Canada.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SW winds set up warm weak warm advection. Clouds and the SW flow
help surface temps remain nearly steady through the night.
Temperatures ranging generally from the mid 20s across the
northernmost zones to the mid 30s for coastal spots.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Key Points:

* Minor snow event forecast for Western Passaic NJ, Orange
  County NY, Putnam County NY and northern tip of Fairfield
  County CT Wednesday. Snow mixing with rain much of the event
  will limit accumulations of snow. Total snow accumulations
  forecast of near 1 inch or less.

* For interior areas mentioned in 1st point, a brief period of
  freezing rain is possible at the onset early Wednesday but
  probability for this is low.

* Rain expected for the rest of the forecast region not
  mentioned in the 1st point for Wednesday into Wednesday
  evening.

* Gusty winds forecast Wednesday and Thursday. Max gusts
  forecast mainly near 35 to 40 mph but some peak gusts to near
  45 to 50 mph are possible, especially Thursday.


Upper level jet has been situated south of the region. One
particular streak is shown in the numerical weather prediction
models to pass south of the region Wednesday into Wednesday
evening. The local area is near the left front quad of that jet
streak. Then, the models show this jet streak to move southeast
away from the region Wednesday night into Thursday. Jet remains
situated south of the region Thursday into Thursday night.

At the surface, a strong wave of low pressure, down to near 987 mb
according to forecast models, moves from the Great Lakes into
interior parts of the Northeast Wednesday. This will have an
associated strong cold front approaching the region.

Forcing for lift increases with associated omega increase from late
morning through the afternoon. This is when precipitation will
develop and move east within the region with highest POPs. Ambient
temperature will be key and timing differences with onset of
precipitation will be quite important as well.

Locations north and west of NYC have a wintry mix and with
dynamic cooling expected, will likely keep that wintry mix as
wet bulb cooling cools the lower levels of the atmosphere. The
wintry mix will be mainly rain and snow. Still have these
locations with rising temperatures to the low to mid 30s so any
snow accumulations are forecast to be limited to near 1 inch or
less. The timing of this event will really limit the snowfall
accumulation in this case.

For other locations within the forecast region, a rain event is
expected. Steady light to occasionally moderate rain is
expected, mainly from late morning through the afternoon. This
rain will linger into the evening especially across eastern
parts of Long Island and Southern CT. Brief heavy rain will be
possible with that omega increase.

Max temperatures forecast for Wednesday range from the mid 30s for
Orange County NY to lower 50s across Eastern Long Island. For
Wednesday night, the strong cold frontal passage late will be
ushering in a much colder airmass, with lows ranging from lower 20s
to lower 30s and with increasing winds, wind chills by early
Thursday morning are mainly near the 10 to 20 degrees range.

A much colder day is expected Thursday compared to the previous day.
This continental polar airmass will be moving in and with 850mb
temperatures near -15 degrees C. Temperatures only expected to
rise into the 30s for high temperatures Thursday for most
locations, well below normal for this time of year. Another day
of gusty winds expected as well. Max gusts look to stay near 35 to
40 mph but an occasional peak gust to near 45 to 50 mph is
possible.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Key Points:

* Temperatures will be at least several degrees below normal Friday
  and Saturday.

* A clipper low may bring light snow or flurries Friday night into
  Saturday morning.

* An Arctic cold front and associated upper level disturbance will
  bring a better chance for light snow Saturday night into Sunday
  morning.

* A shot of Arctic air will follow for later Sunday into Tuesday,
  with temps up to 10 degrees below normal.

Models continue to trend weaker with the approaching upper level sys
Fri night, at least at the surface. With the associated mid level
level vort max aimed at the CWA, kept a mention for some light snow,
with little/no accumulation expected.

A potent closed low diving SE out of central Canada Sat night and
passing N on Sunday will drive an Arctic cold front through on
Sunday, which will be capable of producing some accumulating light
snow. Miller B type cyclogenesis is also likely along the front on
Sunday SE of New England after it passes through, likely too late to
have impact on local snowfall totals. This combo will bring colder
conditions for later Sunday through Tue, and it could also become
blustery Sunday night into Mon due to the tight pressure gradient
between the intensifying low as it heads toward Atlantic Canada and
high pressure building to the west. The high should build over the
area on Tue.

Temps will run about 10 degrees below normal on Mon, with lows in
the teens and lower 20s, and highs from the mid 20s to lower 30s.
Wind chills early Mon morning could drop to the single digits
throughout. Only slight moderation in high temps (30-35) expected
for Tue, with less wind chill impact as winds lighten.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Weak high pressure through this afternoon gives way to a cold front
passing through late tonight.

VFR through at least early afternoon. Conds lower to mostly MVFR
late afternoon into the evening with rain, but eventually lowering
to IFR at KSWF/KHPN/KGON. SNRA anticipated for KSWF. Precip ends
tonight with improvement back to VFR by the Thursday morning push.

Winds gust mainly at the coastal terminals during the pre-dawn hours
up until around this morning`s push when gusts could still be at
least occasional. Frequent gusts then resume near the end of the
push, with gusts for all terminals lasting through the afternoon and
into the night. Peak gusts around 30kt, but gusts will be mostly 25-
29kt.

Winds at 2kft could be around 45 kt from approx 15-21Z for KJFK/KLGA
and terminals farther east.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Occasional gusts 20-25kt possible from 09-15z. Onset of rain and
lowering conds could be forecast an hour or two too early.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

Late tonight: MVFR improving to VFR. W gusts around 25kt.

Thursday: VFR. W gusts 30-35kt.

Friday: Mainly VFR. MVFR possible in any rain or snow showers late
at night. W gusts around 20 kt.

Saturday: Brief MVFR possible east early, otherwise VFR. W gusts
15-20 kt.

Sunday: MVFR or lower in snow. NW flow with guts to around 20
kt.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Winds are expected to increase tonight with all waters expected
to reach SCA levels for wind gusts and ocean for both winds and
gusts. The winds further increase Wednesday with gales expected
on most waters. SCA remains for NY Harbor. Ocean seas Wednesday
forecast to build to near 7 to 11 feet with 3 to 5 feet for the
Eastern Long Island Sound seas.

After a brief decrease in synoptic pressure gradient Wednesday
evening, the pressure gradient increases again late Wednesday night
into Thursday. For Wednesday night, winds eventually lower to SCA
levels for most waters except for ocean which will take longer
for gales to subside. NY Harbor probably remains at SCA levels.
Another round of gales possible for Thursday into Thursday night.
Ocean seas remain near 7 to 11 ft Wednesday night through Thursday
night. A greater part of Long Island is forecast to have seas of
3 to 5 feet Thursday into Thursday night.

SCA cond on all waters Fri morning (W winds gusting to 25-30 kt,
with seas 5-10 ft on the ocean and 4-5 ft on the central/ern Sound)
should slowly wind down Fri afternoon, lingering on the ocean waters
(gusts up to 25 kt and seas 4-6 ft) into Fri evening. After an upper
level disturbance passes by, SCA cond should return to the ocean
waters Sat morning and the non ocean waters Sat afternoon, with
gusts 25-30 kt and ocean seas 3-5 ft, and continue into Sat night.

After an Arctic cold frontal passage on Sunday, then as low pressure
develops/intensifies along the front SE of New England, winds should
veer NW, and gale force wind gusts will be possible. Seas should
build to 5-8 ft on the ocean, and up to 5 ft on the
central/ern Sound.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Less than a quarter of an inch of rain forecast Wednesday into
Wednesday night. Some locally higher amounts possible. No
hydrologic impacts are expected through the week.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST early this morning for
     ANZ331-332-335-340-345-350-353-355.
     Gale Warning from 6 AM this morning to 6 PM EST this evening
     for ANZ331-332-335-340-345.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for ANZ338.
     Gale Warning from 6 AM this morning to 6 AM EST Thursday for
     ANZ350-353.
     Gale Warning from 6 AM this morning to 1 AM EST Thursday for
     ANZ355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BG/JM
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...BG
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...BG/JM
HYDROLOGY...BG/JM