568
FXUS66 KOTX 120601
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1001 PM PST Tue Nov 11 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Breezy and wet Thursday into Friday.

- Mountain snow late Thursday into Friday night. Additional snow in
the mountains Sunday into Monday. Minor travel impacts expected.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Increasing clouds with light rain tonight into early Wednesday.
Wetter and windy weather returns Thursday and Friday. Light snow is
expected over mountain passes. A brief break between weather systems
on Saturday. Then another weather system Saturday night into early
Monday will bring additional light precipitation including more
light snow to mountain passes, especially Sunday night into Monday
morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight through Wednesday: A warm front will push in tonight.
Dynamics with the front will be rather weak although bring a
healthy amount of moisture with it as Pwats increase to around
180- 200% of normal. Weak southerly to southeasterly flow at mid
levels will result in some weak orographic enhancement across
the northern mountains along with moist isentropic ascent where
light precipitation is expected to be focused. Ensembles
indicate up to a few hundredths to potentially a tenth or two
over the mountains with the warm front through early Wednesday.
Only snow expected will be at the highest elevations with snow
levels starting out around 5,000 feet and increasing to around
6,000 feet through the morning Wednesday. The warm air advection
and relatively mild temperatures will make it difficult for
snow to accumulate even at our highest mountain passes, i.e.
Washington Pass and Sherman Pass. The incoming warm front will
tighten the north to northeasterly pressure gradient. That will
result in a little bit of wind through the Purcell Trench and
across the Columbia Basin. The thick mid level cloud cover and
light winds at the surface will mean that we wont see nearly as
much fog overnight like what we saw earlier Tuesday morning. In
fact, the dense fog advisory that was in effect earlier was
cancelled a bit early just before 1pm Tuesday as satellite
imagery and web cams confirm that fog had dissipated
substantially by that point.

Wednesday night through Friday night: The end of the work week
will bring a wetter and breezier period. A trough of low
pressure digs and elongates off of the west coast and across the
eastern Pacific Wednesday night into Thursday. The region will
remain in a moist southwesterly flow pattern with Pwats
remaining generally up around 180% of normal within the warm
sector. Precipitation will generally be focused along the
Cascade crest Wednesday night. Then we see precipitation chances
increasing east of the crest across Eastern Washington into the
Idaho Panhandle on Thursday. The cold front passage looks to be
Thursday evening across Eastern Washington into the Idaho
Panhandle overnight Thursday. Dynamics along the front with some
support aloft will result in widespread precipitation. Drying
in the lee of the Cascades will occur on Friday when precip
effectively shuts off in the Okanogan Valley and Wenatchee Area
to the western Columbia Basin. Upslope flow into the Cascades
and across the Idaho Panhandle will keep light precipitation
going through Friday night. Snow levels drop with cold front
passage down to around 4,000 to 4,500 feet. This will result in
light snow accumulating over Washington Pass, Stevens Pass, and
Lookout Pass. Washington Pass and Stevens Pass will see the
potential for winter travel as early as overnight Thursday into
Friday morning. Temperatures may not cool enough to see snow
accumulate over Lookout Pass until Friday morning, and snow may
see a better chance of accumulating here as temperatures cool
Friday night. Impacts from snow over mountain passes will likely
be minor. Expect total accumulation Thursday night through
Friday night of between 3-7 inches. Winds will be breezy
particularly with the cold front passage. Expect winds to pick
from the south on Thursday ahead of the front then see a shift
to westerly overnight on Thursday and remain breezy into Friday.
Wind gusts are expected to be in the 25 to 35 mph range with
stiffest winds in the Friday morning period.

Saturday through Monday: Shortwave ridging of higher pressure
passes through on Saturday with a break in the unsettled
weather; however, the upper level jet will direct another plume
of moisture into the Northwest region by Sunday into Monday.
This period will result in additional light precipitation most
notably additional light snow in the mountains and minor impacts
over mountain passes. Snow levels increase a bit with the
passing of the shortwave ridge to between 5,000-6,000 feet as
precipitation starts Saturday night. Snow levels will then drop
as the upper level trough shifts in over the region Sunday night
into Monday morning. This will be the period where snow is most
likely to stick over the mountain passes especially Stevens
Pass and Lookout Pass. Stevens Pass and Washington Pass will see
the potential for an additional 3-7 inches and Lookout Pass an
additional few inches of snow that may result in minor travel
impacts. /SVH

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFs: A warm front will lift into the area over tonight
into early Wednesday, then toward the Canadian border by late in
the day. Linger low clouds and moisture that could not scour
out during the day will continue to bring LIFR/MVFR conditions
near GEG/SFF/LWS with low clouds and fog. THe incoming warm
front will bring with it some light rain chances between 09-15Z
or so, which may help to mix up the stratus a bit but primarily
MVFR/IFR conditions are expected to persist through at least
midday, with some improvement in the afternoon to evening. GEG
appears to have the lowest potential of seeing any sustained VFR
conditions. Other TAF sites will see primarily VFR conditions,
with localized MVFR conditions possible with any passing showers
chances. Overall the risk for precipitation.

.FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS:
Moderate to high confidence in LIFR/LIFR conditions at
GEG/SFF/LWS through 09Z, with moderate confidence in some
improvement between 09-15Z. Moderate to high confidence in VFR
conditions at PUW/COE/MWH/EAT, with low confidence in MVFR/IFR
conditions at these same spots. Low to moderate confidence in
rain chances.

-----------------------

Confidence descriptors:
Low - Less than a 30 percent chance
Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance
High - Greater than a 70 percent chance

For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports,
please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage:
https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Spokane        34  49  36  52  40  55 /  10   0  20  30  40  80
Coeur d`Alene  36  49  37  53  42  54 /  30   0  20  40  40  80
Pullman        39  54  41  58  47  57 /  50   0  20  20  30  80
Lewiston       43  58  45  63  48  62 /  30   0  10  10  20  70
Colville       33  45  35  46  38  49 /   0   0  10  50  60  90
Sandpoint      35  44  36  48  40  51 /  20  10  30  60  60  90
Kellogg        41  51  41  57  47  57 /  80  10  30  50  40  90
Moses Lake     30  49  37  53  40  55 /   0   0  10  20  40  70
Wenatchee      37  52  40  51  42  52 /   0   0  10  20  60  80
Omak           35  47  37  47  41  48 /   0   0   0  20  50  90

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...None.
ID...None.

&&

$$