126
FXUS66 KOTX 141943
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1243 PM PDT Mon Sep 14 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers along the Canadian border Monday, then over
  the Cascades, northern Washington mountains, and North Idaho
  Panhandle Tuesday.

- 20 to 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms Thursday
  night into Friday over Southeast Washington and the Central
  Panhandle mountains.

- Warmer temperatures Wednesday through Sunday with afternoon
  highs in the mid 70s to low 80s.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Cool temperatures will continue Monday and Tuesday with
scattered showers over areas of higher terrain. Temperatures
rebound into the 70s and 80s Wednesday through Sunday with
mainly dry conditions. Southeast Washington and the Central
Panhandle mountains will be the exceptions with a 20 to 40
percent chance of showers and thunderstorms Thursday night into
Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Monday afternoon through Tuesday: Cumulus clouds and scattered
shower activity will develop Monday afternoon over the higher
terrain along the Canadian border as surface heating steepens
lapse rates. CAPE values look rather pitiful (50-70 J/kg) so
lightning is not expected with these showers. High temperatures
will remain around 10 degrees below average in the mid to upper
60s. Heading into Tuesday, a mid-level wave drops down into the
region from the north. With this wave will come additional
chances for showers - this time over a broader area including
the Cascades, northern WA mountains, and northern ID Panhandle.
Precip amounts are looking light both Monday and Tuesday with
total rainfall accumulations by Tuesday afternoon generally
ranging from a few hundredths to a tenth of an inch. The North
Cascades and areas of higher terrain along the Canadian border
have a 25 to 45 percent chance of receiving a quarter inch or
more of precip.

Wednesday through Sunday: By Wednesday the mid-level wave drops
south of the region over southern Oregon and northern
California, while higher heights nudge in over Eastern WA and
North ID, prompting a warming and drying trend. The dry weather
will be briefly interrupted Thursday evening into Friday as the
mid- level wave to the south shifts northeastward toward Montana,
bringing a 20 to 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms
over the southeastern corner of WA and the Central Panhandle
mountains. By Saturday, the wave will have exited to the east,
and ridging will rebound across the region favoring continued
warm and dry conditions. Afternoon highs Wednesday through
Sunday will range from the mid 70s to low 80s, and overnight
lows will fall into the 40s and 50s. Overall, weather for the
week will be typical of mid-September with minimal impacts
expected. /Fewkes

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: Fog and stratus have started to lift, improving
conditions to MVFR or better for all sites except KMWH, where
IFR ceilings are still lingering. Conditions will continue to
improve over the next couple of hours with widespread VFR
ceilings and visiblities expected by 20Z. Drier air will
keep conditions VFR through the end of the period.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Moderate to high
confidence in widespread VFR conditions returning by 20Z.

-----------------------

Confidence descriptors:
Low - Less than a 30 percent chance
Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance
High - Greater than a 70 percent chance

For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane
airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our
webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Spokane        47  65  47  73  49  77 /   0   0  10   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  45  65  45  72  46  77 /   0   0  10   0   0   0
Pullman        43  66  44  73  45  73 /   0   0  10   0   0   0
Lewiston       48  72  51  77  53  78 /   0   0  10   0   0   0
Colville       46  66  43  77  42  81 /  10  30  10   0   0   0
Sandpoint      46  64  44  72  42  77 /   0  10  10   0   0   0
Kellogg        43  64  44  71  45  76 /   0   0  10   0   0   0
Moses Lake     46  67  47  75  47  79 /   0  10  10   0   0   0
Wenatchee      52  65  50  74  53  80 /   0  20  10   0   0   0
Omak           52  66  48  76  48  80 /  10  40  10   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...None.
ID...None.

&&

$$