370
FXUS66 KOTX 050824
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
124 AM PDT Sun Oct 5 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Gusty north winds Sunday morning in central Washington and
  far north Idaho.

- Dry Sunday onward with chilly overnight lows falling into the
  upper 20s and 30s.

- Pattern becomes highly uncertain by Wednesday of next week.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Drier conditions expected over the weekend into early next week
with chilly overnight lows and areas of frost. Breezy northwest
winds Friday shifting north Friday night into Saturday and
Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Sunday: North-south pressure gradients have increased tonight
bringing the threat of strong northerly winds to the Okanogan
Valley, Columbia Basin, and Purcell Trench. There is a still a
70-90% chance for the Okanogan Valley and Columbia Basin to see
wind gusts exceed 30 mph and a 20-40% chance to exceed 40 mph.
The wind gusts in the Purcell trench will not be as strong but
locations such as Sandpoint and Coeur D`Alene will gust around
15-25 mph Saturday night. With a drier post-frontal airmass in
place, PWAT anomalies have dropped to around 60-80% of normal.
Sheltered valley locations (Republic and Colville) may see their
first freeze tonight as they are sheltered from the winds.
Winds will slowly decrease through the day Sunday as pressure
gradients relax. Temperatures Saturday and Sunday will be in the
60s. With little airmass change Sunday night and much lighter
winds, the frost and freeze risk expands to locations outside of
sheltered valleys, especially the Columbia Basin and Palouse.
For the sheltered valleys, this will be a harder freeze in the
mid to upper 20s. Continual dry sinking air in north central
Washington will bring very dry conditions to the area Sunday
with dewpoints dropping into the teens and potentially even
single digits. Despite temperatures being in the 60s, places
like Omak, Wenatchee, and Winthrop could see relative humidities
in the low teens.

Monday through Sunday: The upper level ridge off the WA coast will
start to move inland and flatten. This will bring mild conditions in
the mid 60s to low 70s, fairly light winds, and sunny skies Monday
and Tuesday.

Confidence in the forecast is still very low beyond Tuesday as a
shortwave starts to deepen in southeastern Alaska. There is higher
confidence in the low to retrograde out to sea during mid week but
the positioning of it is very important for the Inland Northwest.
Colder ensemble solutions with the trough in closer proximity Wed-
Fri have temperatures in the upper 50s to low 60s. Warmer ensemble
solutions with the low more offshore bring strong ridging into the
area and have temperatures in the 70s and even 80s in low lying
areas. 00z European AI, Euro, and GFS are clinging on to the warmer
solutions. The trends will continue to be monitored. /Butler

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: VFR conditions will prevail through the period with
decreasing cloud cover overnight. Gusty north winds (KOMK-KEPH-
KMWH) down the Okanogan Valley and the Columbia Basin will
continue through the night and into the morning hours and ease
off into the late morning. The Purcell trench will be breezy as
well but not as much as central WA (15-25 mph gusts for KSZT-
KCOE)

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS:
High confidence in VFR conditions.

-----------------------

Confidence descriptors:
Low - Less than a 30 percent chance
Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance
High - Greater than a 70 percent chance

For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane
airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage:
https:/weather.gov/otx/avndashboard

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Spokane        61  34  65  39  70  42 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  61  34  66  41  69  43 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Pullman        61  33  65  37  71  40 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Lewiston       65  41  68  43  74  47 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Colville       62  23  67  29  68  30 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Sandpoint      57  32  64  40  66  41 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Kellogg        59  37  63  42  69  46 /  10   0   0   0   0   0
Moses Lake     66  33  68  36  71  37 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      63  41  68  46  67  45 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Omak           64  37  69  44  69  44 /   0   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM PDT Monday for
     Moses Lake Area-Upper Columbia Basin.
ID...None.

&&

$$