699
FXUS66 KOTX 162256
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
356 PM PDT Mon Jun 16 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Elevated to critical fire weather conditions For Monday and
  Wednesday afternoon and evenings.

- Cooler with increasing precipitation chances Friday through
  the weekend.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Warmer temperatures to start off the week with an increasing
risk for elevated fire weather conditions from gusty winds and
dry conditions through the middle of this week. Cooler
temperatures and chances for showers increase late week into
next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Monday night through Wednesday: Weak ridging over the Inland
Northwest will keep weather warm and dry through the middle of
the week. Shortwaves associated with a closed upper level low
in the Gulf of Alaska will pass through this evening and then
again on Wednesday, keeping the ridge relatively flat with
onshore flow into western Washington. This will tighten the
cross- Cascade pressure gradient with gusty winds through the
Cascade gaps and the western Columbia Basin Monday and Wednesday.
Models show the shortwave on Wednesday to be a bit stronger
than the one Monday evening with breezy winds spreading further
inland into the rest of eastern Washington and north Idaho.
There will not be much moisture to work with (PWATs 70-90% of
normal) so any precipitation associated with the shortwave is
not expected to survive its trip over the Cascades. Far
northeast Washington and north Idaho have the best chance for
showers Wednesday afternoon and evening with a 15 to 25% chance.

Thursday through Sunday: There is high confidence for the
closed low will gradually drift southeast later in the week into
the weekend with the center of the low over the Pacific
Northwest on Saturday. Temperatures will trend cooler across
the Inland Northwest with highs in the 60s and 70s by Saturday
(8 to 15 degrees below average). This will also bring chances
for precipitation with a 80+ percent chance for 0.10 inches of
rain between 5 AM Friday through 5 AM Monday across northeast
Washington, far eastern Washington, and north Idaho. The lee of
the Cascades and the Columbia Basin have a 30-40% chance. The
National Blend of Models shows snow levels dropping over the
Cascades with precipitation falling as light snow above 5000
feet. Those heading out into the backcountry should plan for a
cold weekend. /vmt

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: VFR conditions through the next 24 hours. Increasing
west/southwest winds this evening especially in central
Washington (EAT/EPH) 00-05z.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: High confidence
for VFR conditions.

-----------------------

Confidence descriptors:
Low - Less than a 30 percent chance
Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance
High - Greater than a 70 percent chance

For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane
airports,please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our
webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A Red Flag Warning remains in effect for Zones 705 and 706 for
winds and low relative humidity through Monday evening.
Increased onshore flow has allowed the cross-Cascade pressure
gradient (SEA-EAT) to increase to near +9.0 mb. Ample sun has
allowed the upslope wind component to overcome this gradient,
but would expect winds to pick up in the next 1-3 hours with
a 70-90% chance for northwest wind gusts over 30 mph. Current
RHs in these locations are in the teens to low 20s will continue
to decrease through the early evening.

For Wednesday afternoon and evening, a Fire Weather Watch has
been issued for zones 705, 706, and 707. A stronger push of
winds will bring another possible period of critical fire
weather conditions. Models show the cross- Cascade pressure
gradient Wednesday afternoon up to +10mb with a 80-100% chance
for wind gusts greater than 30 mph and a 40-70% chance for wind
gusts greater than 40 mph. Forecasted RHs (18-25%) are
marginal, but higher confidence for stronger winds justified the
watch issuance.


&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Spokane        52  80  52  80  49  79 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  51  80  51  79  50  79 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Pullman        45  77  47  77  44  76 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Lewiston       55  86  56  86  55  83 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Colville       46  80  45  79  42  79 /   0   0   0  10  10   0
Sandpoint      48  79  48  78  46  78 /   0   0   0  10  10   0
Kellogg        53  77  53  77  51  78 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Moses Lake     51  85  52  84  49  82 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      57  85  58  81  53  81 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Omak           52  85  52  82  49  82 /   0   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
     evening for Foothills of Central Washington Cascades
     (Zone 705)-Waterville Plateau (Zone 706)-Western Columbia
     Basin (Zone 707).
     Red Flag Warning until 9 PM PDT this evening for Foothills of
     Central Washington Cascades (Zone 705)-Waterville Plateau
     (Zone 706).
ID...None.

&&

$$