864
FXUS66 KOTX 261728
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1028 AM PDT Sun May 26 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry weather returns on Sunday and Monday with temperatures
warming back into 70s and 80s with a ridge pattern over the
Pacific Northwest. Tuesday will see a return of showers and
thunderstorms to Eastern Washington and Idaho Panhandle. A cool,
wet pattern will continue through the rest of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today and Monday: A warm, dry period is expected as a ridge builds
over the Pacific Northwest. Ensembles are in decent agreement with
the pattern. Sunday morning will continue have lingering shower
activity over the higher terrains before drying out by the
afternoon. A more stable airmass will keep winds calmer than
Saturday with afternoon gusts only reaching into the teens. Monday
will be very similar. The next system will begin to increase upper
level clouds over the region late Monday afternoon. Highs for the
period will be in the upper 60s and 70s. Some Central Basin areas
could see low 80s Monday afternoon. Lows will be in the 40s and
low 50s. /JDC

Tuesday through Saturday: Tuesday is looking like the most eventful
day of the forecast period as of right now. Clouds will increase
early Tuesday morning as weak impulses ripple through the atmosphere
ahead of the approaching cold front, and with the increase in cloud
cover will come increased chances for showers. Areas most likely to
see precip will be the Cascade Crest, northeastern WA, the Blue
Mountains, the Palouse, and the ID Panhandle. Chances for showers in
these areas range from 30 to 60 percent.

Thunderstorms will be possible as well for northeastern WA, the
Blues, the Palouse, and the ID Panhandle Tuesday afternoon into
Tuesday night. Probabilities for thunderstorms range from 20 to 30
percent. The Storm Prediction Center has placed the Idaho
Panhandle in an area of marginal risk for severe thunderstorms on
Tuesday. High temperatures Tuesday will be similar to those on
Monday, in the 70s to low 80s. Tuesday and Wednesday are looking
rather breezy with gusts in the neighborhood of 20 to 30 mph for
most of the region.

Following the passage of the cold front, temperatures will drop back
down to seasonal normals in the 60s to low 70s Wednesday and
Thursday. An upper-level trough tracking through the area will keep
chances for showers and isolated thunderstorms in the forecast along
the periphery of the region (over the Cascade Crest, along the
Canadian border, in the ID Panhandle, and down to Pullman and
Lewiston).

A slight majority of models (around 60 percent of them) are showing
another ridge building by Friday, while the remaining 40 percent
want to keep the trough over us. If the ridge scenario plays out,
we`ll likely see a drying and warming trend heading into next
weekend. /Fewkes

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: VFR conditions for TAF sites for the next 24 hours. A
weak ridge will begin to build over eastern Washington Sunday, but
moist upslope flow into the Cascades will continue to support
precipitation and mountain obscuration through Sunday afternoon.
There is a 15-25% chance for showers to develop across northeast
Washington and far north Idaho Sunday afternoon, with the best
chance over the mountains. Warming temperatures aloft will limit
cumulus vertical growth, so the potential for lightning is very
low (less than 5%). Shower chances wane after 00-03Z.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS:
There is high confidence for VFR conditions to continue across the
TAF Sites.

-----------------------

Confidence descriptors:
Low - Less than a 30 percent chance
Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance
High - Greater than a 70 percent chance

For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports,
please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage:
https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        65  44  73  51  75  46 /  10  10   0   0  20  10
Coeur d`Alene  61  44  72  51  74  47 /  10  10   0   0  30  30
Pullman        62  43  72  51  73  44 /  10   0   0  10  20  40
Lewiston       71  49  80  57  81  52 /  10  10   0  10  20  50
Colville       64  37  72  44  72  39 /  20  10   0   0  50  50
Sandpoint      59  43  70  48  72  44 /  20  10   0  10  50  60
Kellogg        57  46  70  53  75  48 /  20  10   0  10  40  60
Moses Lake     71  44  78  52  78  45 /  10  10   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      67  47  76  54  73  47 /  10   0   0   0  10   0
Omak           70  43  76  50  73  44 /  10   0   0   0  20  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$