618
FXUS64 KOUN 251101
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
601 AM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 559 AM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026

- Chances for showers and storms focused across western OK and
  western north TX today, expanding east into the weekend.

- More chances for rain next Tuesday/Wednesday with a cold front.

- Temperatures will remain above normal through early next week,
  but not as hot as recent weeks.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Friday)
Issued at 132 AM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026

Another shortwave will traverse the west and northwest side of ridge
late tonight into the day Friday. This ridge has dominated the
weather across much of the area the last several days, but
continuing today will settle further south with some slight height
falls across the area. This will allow better chances to extend
further east, especially across southwest Oklahoma and western north
Texas later today.

With expected cloud cover, temperatures should be a few degrees
cooler across northern into central and portions of western
Oklahoma. However another hot day expected further south with highs
in the 90s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Friday night through Sunday night)
Issued at 132 AM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026

As we go into Friday night, deeper moisture plume will continue to
reside across the Texas and Oklahoma panhandles into the western
third of the state. This moisture along with some residual upper
forcing and the possibility of some weak warm advection precip
chances will continue Friday night, mainly along and north of I-44.

Although the best chance of more widespread rain Saturday looks to
be early in the day. A shortwave trough will lift north through the
Plains during the day. By afternoon, sufficient instability will
exist, although forcing will not be strong, scattered activity, some
of which could become strong to severe can not be ruled out.

Another shortwave looks to move over the top of quickly expanding
ridge Saturday night into Sunday. Although NBM POPs appear a bit
aggressive, still precip chances should linger into Saturday night.
Otherwise this wave will move by early Sunday leaving us in a lull
as far as precip chances go late Sunday into Monday.

In addition, the building ridge will bring the heat back to much of
the area over the weekend with temperatures in the upper 80s(north)
to near 100 degrees(Red River) by Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 132 AM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026

As we go into next week our attention turns to the west and
southwest. Large trough takes shape across the western CONUS Monday.
Meanwhile, Hurricane Polo off the west coast of Mexico lifts north
early in the week. Its remnant moisture looks to phase with the
trough as we into Tuesday. Moisture plume ahead of these features
will bring increasing rain chances to the area by Tuesday as well.

Uncertainty increases beyond this point as models diverge with
regards to timing. Although both the GFS and the Euro show a closed
low, the Euro is farther south and becomes a bit more cut off from
the main flow and is therefore slower with its eastward progress
through the week. The Euro`s trough and the remnants of Polo also
rotate around each other over Arizona and New Mexico before ejecting
out by Friday. Meanwhile, the GFS is more progressive and has the
system coming through late Wednesday and Wednesday night with a more
spring-time severe weather look. Either way looks to bring the best
chance of widespread beneficial rainfall that we have seen in quite
some time.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 559 AM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026

Areas of showers and a few lightning strikes continue across the
northwestern and north central parts of Oklahoma this morning.
This activity is expected to wane by late morning with VFR
conditions taking over - though extensive mid-level cloud cover is
expected across the entire area. The next wave of showers and
thunderstorms will impact western and northern parts of the
forecast area from late this afternoon through tonight. Brief
reductions in ceiling and visibility below VFR thresholds are
possible, though prevailing conditions should remain VFR.

Meister

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  89  70  90  71 /  10  30  30  40
Hobart OK         89  69  91  69 /  20  50  30  20
Wichita Falls TX  95  70  98  70 /  10  20  20  30
Gage OK           81  64  87  62 /  70  70  20  10
Ponca City OK     83  67  85  66 /  40  40  50  50
Durant OK         93  68  96  69 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...04