887
FXUS64 KOUN 291950
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
250 PM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 249 PM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026

- Periods of heavy rain are expected from Wednesday afternoon
  through Thursday afternoon, with flooding possible in parts of
  western north Texas and southern Oklahoma.

- Chance of severe storms Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night.

- Significant cooldown expected from Thursday through the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of today and tonight)
Issued at 249 PM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026

An area of rain continues to lift to the northeast across the
northwest half of Oklahoma today. The coverage of rain should
decrease this evening as the aforementioned wave exits the area.
However, lingering showers and thunderstorms may persist across
northwest Oklahoma. Cloud cover/reduced insolation associated with
the rain shield is resulting in a northwest to southeast
temperature gradient this afternoon. Temperatures range from the
mid 70s across northwest Oklahoma to the low 90s across southeast
Oklahoma. For tonight, most locations should remain dry with rain
chances generally confined across far northwest Oklahoma.

Mahale

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Wednesday through Thursday night)
Issued at 249 PM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026

Wednesday into Thursday will be the most active period over the
next week as an upper-level low and the remnants of Hurricane Polo
merge and approach the Southern Plains.

There will likely be a relative lull in the coverage of rainfall
Wednesday morning with perhaps some scattered showers across
western Oklahoma and western north Texas. However, most locations
will likely remain dry in the morning.

Synoptic-scale ascent will increase as the consolidated upper-
level system approaches from the west Wednesday afternoon in
tandem with a surface low and a trailing dryline in the
Texas/Oklahoma panhandles. Increasing instability (MLCAPE ~1000 to
1500 J/kg) ahead of the dryline will result in an environment
capable of producing strong to severe thunderstorms with
convection initiation most likely across southwest Oklahoma into
western north Texas.

These storms will likely merge into a line moving east-northeast
through the evening and overnight with the primary hazards being
damaging winds gusts and perhaps embedded, QLCS tornadoes. While
the overall synoptic-scale pattern and low-level shear/kinetic
profiles are favorable for QLCS tornadoes (e.g., ~40 knot flow at
925 mb along the I-35 corridor), there remains uncertainty on
whether the low-level thermodynamics will be favorable. However,
with dew points in the low 70s deg F from continued moisture
advection and low LCLs, there is at least some tornado risk.

There will likely be at least two rounds of showers and
thunderstorms through Thursday morning. Locations southeast of
I-44 have the best chance at receiving 3 to 4 inches of rainfall
with locally higher amounts up to 6 inches possible. A Flood Watch
is in effect for this area. The dry slot will impact how much
rainfall is expected near and northwest of I-44, so there will
likely be a tight gradient of rainfall with amounts quickly
decreasing quickly with northwest extent. Rainfall totals along
the I-44 corridor will depend heavily on the strength of the dry
slot: a stronger dry slot will result in lower amounts, whereas a
weaker dry slot will allow for higher totals. Consequently, the
probabilistic rainfall forecast has a relatively large range of
outcomes with anywhere between ~1" to 5" of rainfall possible
along the I-44 corridor (including the OKC Metro, Lawton, Wichita
Falls, and Stillwater). The lower and upper range come from the
10th percentile and the 90th percentile of the probabilistic
forecast. One way to interpret the 90th percentile is the
reasonable worst case scenario or "how bad could it be?" if
everything is in alignment. Record-breaking precipitable water
values are forecast between 2 to 2.25", so the environment is
definitely capable of producing flooding rainfall with a tropical
air mass in place.

Rain will likely continue across southeast Oklahoma through the
day Thursday with a continued risk for some flooding. Wrap-around
showers and low clouds will be possible across the northern half
to two-thirds of Oklahoma in close proximity to the upper-level
low. That should result in cooler, more seasonable temperatures
in the 70s and low 80s deg F. Across southwest Oklahoma into
western north Texas, warmer weather is expected in the dryslot
region with temperatures in the mid 80s to upper 80s deg F.

Mahale

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 158 AM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026

The story of the long-term forecast is one of a long-awaited pattern
change. Cooler temperatures are expected. Much drier weather will
occur in northern/western Oklahoma, while rain chances will linger
in southeast Oklahoma and parts of western north Texas.

As the trough responsible for this week`s system approaches the
polar jet, it will degenerate into an open wave. However, the
remnant weakness in the subtropical ridge (still kicking to our west
and east) will allow our weather to behave more like early October
should. The robust cold front on Thursday will keep sweeping through
on Friday, and a reinforcing front is expected early next week as a
1026 mb high dominates the central US. This will keep temperatures
at or below seasonal normals as late as next Monday before lee
troughing potentially returns.

Showers do linger in the forecast, particularly Friday and Saturday
in southeast/central Oklahoma where remnant moisture may be
stronger. The reinforcing front will do the job to dry us all the
way out: our forecast calls for no mentionable rain chances next
Monday.

Meister

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1223 PM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026

Widespread rainfall through the period may lower ceilings and
visibilities through the taf period. Widespread ceiling reduction
is expected by tomorrow morning. Additional thunderstorms are
possible tomorrow morning, especially across the western third of
the area.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  74  87  70  81 /  10  70 100  70
Hobart OK         72  85  68  85 /  20  80  70  30
Wichita Falls TX  74  91  69  85 /   0  80 100  60
Gage OK           66  83  62  80 /  90  90  40  40
Ponca City OK     69  82  67  77 /  20  70 100  90
Durant OK         73  94  71  83 /   0  20  70 100

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Thursday afternoon
     for OKZ031-032-040>043-045>048-050>052.

TX...Flood Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Thursday afternoon
     for TXZ086-088>090.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...10
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...13