180
FXUS64 KOUN 170625
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1225 AM CST Mon Nov 17 2025

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1208 AM CST Mon Nov 17 2025

  - Elevated fire danger Monday afternoon western Oklahoma.

  - Near record heat Monday and Tuesday.

  - Strong thunderstorms and heavy rainfall likely Wednesday into
    Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Monday)
Issued at 1208 AM CST Mon Nov 17 2025

Late this evening, water vapor imagery indicates a rather compact
mid/upper low spinning across far western Colorado with shortwave
ridging across the southern and central Plains.  As the low tracks
eastward overnight into Monday, higher theta-e air across southern
Oklahoma and Texas will advect northward.  By 9-12Z Monday, areas
of fog (perhaps dense) may develop along the western edge of
higher theta-e air. Currently, it appears areas from around
Lawton to Clinton and Alva have a better chance of seeing fog.
To the east, low clouds and some fog are more likely. It appears
warm low level temperature and the depth of the moisture should
keep elevated convection from occurring, but this may occur over
in eastern Oklahoma.

Sometimes low clouds and fog can be stubborn to erode, especially
late fall into winter. For now, will go with the idea of little
fog and low clouds remaining by late morning. With heating on
Monday, the wind will become more southwesterly with time,
especially across western Oklahoma and western north Texas. Near-
record to record high temperatures are also expected Monday.

Record high temperatures for Monday, November 17th
OKC             82
Wichita Falls   86
Lawton          84

Will also need to watch the potential for elevated fire weather
conditions developing during the afternoon.  Guidance suggest
afternoon humidity will approach or perhaps fall below 20 percent
across mainly the western third of Oklahoma and northern Texas.
Mixing will also be deeper across this area with afternoon gusts
near 30 mph at times. With more confidence in drier air
overspreading west central and northwestern Oklahoma, we will
issue a Fire Danger Statement for this area.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Monday night through Tuesday night)
Issued at 1208 AM CST Mon Nov 17 2025

As the upper low/trough to our north moves into the Upper
Midwest, an associated weak cold front will enter northern
Oklahoma by early Tuesday morning. The front is expected to stall
across the Red River Valley by late Tuesday afternoon. Similar to
the last several fronts, it will provide some cooling across the
northern half of Oklahoma with record highs possible again across
far southern Oklahoma and northern Texas. With shortwave ridging
on Tuesday dry weather is expected. This will certainly begin to
change Tuesday night into Wednesday, as our much anticipated
system approaches from the west.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 1208 AM CST Mon Nov 17 2025

The main change to the forecast in the Wednesday to Thursday period
is perhaps a slower onset of showers and thunderstorms and lower
rainfall totals.  Regardless, there still appears that most of
Oklahoma and western north Texas will receive at least 1/2 inch of
rainfall with the Wednesday/Thursday system, with a good chance
of isolated totals around 3+ inches.

On Wednesday, a warm front and higher theta-e air will lift
northward into Oklahoma and western north Texas, as an upper low
moves east of southern California.  Mid and high clouds will also
increase and are more effective at limiting insolation in mid to
late November. With weak to perhaps neutral height falls, it
possible that most of the warm sector will remain capped to deep
moist convection. We will still maintain at least a 30 percent
chance of showers and storms during the daylight hours Wednesday.
If storms can develop, especially across southern
Oklahoma/northern Texas, strong thunderstorms are possible.

As better forcing arrives late Wednesday and especially Thursday,
widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop.
Although strong storms are possible, the risk of heavy rainfall will
increase.  Guidance suggest the best chance of heavy rainfall totals
will be south and east of Interstate 44, but would not be surprise
if this shifts northward. By late Thursday into Friday, mid and
upper level drying will diminish the risk of heavy rainfall, as
well as rain chances.

By early to midday Friday, rain chances will decrease significantly
as the upper low/trough moves north and east of the southern Plains.
This system is also expected to push a decent cold front through the
area Friday with gusty northwest overspreading the area Friday
afternoon into Friday night.  The air mass behind the front will not
be very dry, but enough to allow overnight lows to drop to near
mid/late November averages.  How quickly another storm system to our
west approaches is uncertain.  However, even with a faster solution,
which would bring some chances of rain to the area late Saturday into
Sunday, moisture would be lacking. Therefore, any rain will be on
the light side.



&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1046 PM CST Sun Nov 16 2025

Incoming southerly moisture will bring stratus and fog to the
region overnight, though details remain uncertain. Models
continue to show the I-35 corridor as the most likely area for low
stratus (including IFR potential) with parts of western Oklahoma
having the highest chances for patchy fog (including a potential
for dense fog). Stratus will clear west to east during the day
tomorrow. South to southwest winds will become breezy during the
afternoon.

Day

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  81  53  75  51 /   0   0   0   0
Hobart OK         83  47  77  50 /   0   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  86  54  83  57 /   0   0   0  10
Gage OK           77  43  70  44 /   0   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     78  47  72  46 /   0   0   0   0
Durant OK         83  67  86  62 /   0  10   0  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...06
SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...14