907
FXUS64 KOUN 091105
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
505 AM CST Sun Nov 9 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 456 AM CST Sun Nov 9 2025

 - Below-average temperatures through Monday with a hard freeze
   Monday morning.

 - Dry conditions persist for at least the next seven days with
   elevated fire weather Tuesday.

 - A notable storm system will influence our weather next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Sunday)
Issued at 1221 AM CST Sun Nov 9 2025

Cold air advection will continue today in the wake of yesterday`s
front. Regional satellite analysis reveals post frontal stratus
advecting southward over eastern Kansas. High-resolution models
depict at least broken/overcast skies over parts of northern/
central Oklahoma in the hours ahead as these clouds spread south
through sunrise. The MSLP gradient also will tighten through the
morning to support notably breezy north winds. Peak wind speeds
appear to occur between roughly 15-18z before the gradient begins
to relax. Numerical guidance shows sustained wind speeds likely
in the 15 to 25 mph range with a few gusts over 30 mph. Daytime
maximum temperatures will be approximately 15 degrees below
normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday night through Tuesday night)
Issued at 1221 AM CST Sun Nov 9 2025

A highly amplified positive North American upper air pattern
(ridge over the West, and low geopotential heights over the
Eastern U.S.) will persist through Monday. This will usher a 1036
mb Canadian surface high southward through the Plains. The surface
high will settle over Oklahoma and north Texas by early Monday
bringing a hard freeze to the region with temperatures in the 20s.
A Freeze Warning remains valid for Sunday night/Monday morning.

The upper air pattern will flatten by Tuesday. This will induce
lee cyclogenesis over the High Plains to our west, and will
constitute a dry return flow scenario featuring strengthening
southerly winds, a return of above normal temperatures, and
relative humidities in the 10-20% range... thus elevated to near
critical fire weather conditions are expected.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 1221 AM CST Sun Nov 9 2025

Attention in the long term will focus on the approach of a strong
upper air trough/low which is anticipated to influence our weather
next weekend. Ensemble guidance reveals that notable uncertainty
remains with regard to the exact nature this system and its impact
on Oklahoma/western north Texas. The spread in outcomes will be
dependent on the exact speed and depth of the upper air
trough/low. The official forecast is favored by more than 40% of
the ensemble members in cluster analysis, with only 17% of the
members not resolving the feature of interest well at all. NBM
currently indicates 20-30 percent PoPS favoring eastern Oklahoma
by late Saturday. However, nearly 50% of the ensemble members
appear to indicate at least 0.01 inches of rainfall over a
majority of the forecast area. Meanwhile, NBM probabilities for
surface winds exceeding 25 mph are also in the 25% range,
indicating that the jury is still out whether this system will
actually be a rain or wind producer, or both. Stay tuned.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 456 AM CST Sun Nov 9 2025

An area of post-frontal stratus has been advancing southward
early this morning. Based on satellite observations, this stratus
is much more expansive than short-range forecasts anticipated.
Models don`t have a very good handle on how long it will last,
either. Have opted to expand stratus coverage to include OKC and
OUN, with a TEMPO for it further south at DUA. Also opted to
extend stratus temporally through late morning given low sun angle
and general overperformance of low cloud cover to our north. This
stratus is expected to toe the line between VFR conditions and
MVFR conditions.

As for winds, the northerly breeze continues. Expect some increase
in wind velocities and particularly gusts this morning, but winds
will slightly decrease this afternoon, and become much weaker
tonight.

Meister

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  48  25  49  37 /   0   0   0   0
Hobart OK         55  25  56  39 /   0   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  57  28  54  40 /   0   0   0   0
Gage OK           50  23  56  40 /   0   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     46  22  46  33 /   0   0   0   0
Durant OK         55  29  52  35 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Freeze Warning from 9 PM this evening to 9 AM CST Monday for
     OKZ004>048-050>052.

TX...Freeze Warning from 9 PM this evening to 9 AM CST Monday for
     TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...20
SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...04