295
FXUS64 KOUN 212324
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
524 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 520 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

- Another round of rainfall is likely on Sunday into Monday morning
      along with a risk of locally heavy rainfall and flash
      flooding.

- Turning cooler towards middle of next week with low temperatures
      near the freezing mark.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of today and tonight)
Issued at 126 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

Mostly mild temperatures and breezy winds continue to shift
northwesterly this afternoon as the trough over Kansas slowly
lifts away from our region. Wrap-around low-level moisture, in
the form of stratus, continues to advance towards central Oklahoma,
though some erosion just behind the leading edge of the cloud
deck is recently noted on satellite. Cloudiness is anticipated to
remain over northern into central Oklahoma tonight. There is some
uncertainty on degree of cloud-cover and southern extent this
afternoon and tonight. Short-term models lean towards more clouds
farther south than NBM output.

If this occurs, then overnight low temperatures could be slightly
warmer. As it stands currently, temperatures by early Saturday
morning are expected to drop mainly into the 40`s with some upper
30`s possible over parts of northwest/western Oklahoma, with
northwest winds of 5 to 10 mph. No precipitation is expected.

Thompson

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday through Sunday night)
Issued at 126 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

Short-wave ridging will push a surface high across the area
resulting in light winds veering anti-cyclonically with clouds
generally shifting south and east on Saturday. Cooler weather is
anticipated tomorrow for most areas with high temperatures in the
upper 50`s to mid-60`s. The exception to this is western and
northwestern Oklahoma, which will be warmer than today due to a
combination of diminishing cold air advection and higher
insolation (less cloud-cover) compared to other parts of the CWA.

A closed upper low pressure system, which is currently spinning
southward along the southern California coast and towards Baja
California, shifts eastward over Baja and then lifts slowly
towards the four corners region around mid-day Sunday. Increasing
clouds and rain chances will move in from the southwest throughout
the day, with of moderate rainfall likely late Sunday into Monday.
An axis of higher rain totals (near 2 to 3 inches) is currently
forecast within a corridor that extends from north-central Texas
to far south-central and southeastern Oklahoma. This is the area
currently prog`d to have some flash flood potential.

There are medium-high probabilities (70+%) of at least 1 inch of
storm total rainfall (which extends into Monday) along/east of a
line from Wichita Falls to Ardmore to Coalgate. There is a medium
chance (~50%) of 2 inches of rainfall for a small area from
Marietta to Durant and Atoka. Heaviest rainfall rates are
estimated to arrive over western north Texas on Sunday afternoon,
followed by south-central and southeastern Oklahoma after dark on
Sunday.

Thompson

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Thursday)
Issued at 1155 PM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

Height falls and associated lift begin to occur across the southern
Plains as upper low approaches the area Sunday. Should see precip
develop across the west during the morning and then overspreading
the area during the day. This storm system is a bit more progressive
than this last one and once it begins to lift northeast does so
fairly quickly. Highest rain chances will be Sunday afternoon into
Monday morning with area most likely to see heavier amounts being
across south-central into southeast Oklahoma. Much like this current
storm system a rather impressive dry slot looks to overspread the
area Sunday night into Monday. This will quickly bring an end to the
more significant rainfall across much of the area, exception as
mentioned above being portions of south-central and southeast
Oklahoma. Some potential in these areas to pick up another 2 to 3
inches of rain.

Rain chances end quickly Monday afternoon with drier air filtering
in the storm systems wake. An initial cold front then slides south
across the area on Tuesday with a reinforcing shot of colder air
plunging south Tuesday night making Wednesday the coolest day of the
upcoming week as center of surface high setting overhead. Some areas
may remain in the 40s with much of the area in the mid/lower 50s.
Many locations may see another freeze Thanksgiving morning with
decent recovery during the day with 50s area-wide with at least some
sunshine the way it looks now.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 520 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

A deck of stratus is located from just southeast of SWO to OKC to
HBR and everywhere northwest of that line this evening. This
stratus deck has not really advanced or retreated much during the
daytime but is showing signs of expanding south and east on
satellite currently. It will likely impact OUN shortly, though it
may stay just north of LAW. Ceilings within the cloud deck are
about 2,000 feet with some drop expected tonight to 1,000-1,500
feet. Tomorrow, the system will depart and skies will become VFR
areawide by afternoon. Winds are out of the west-northwest now and
will light and shift to northerly overnight.

Meister

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  43  59  41  62 /   0   0   0  50
Hobart OK         40  64  39  61 /   0   0   0  80
Wichita Falls TX  43  66  43  63 /   0   0   0  80
Gage OK           36  63  37  59 /   0   0   0  80
Ponca City OK     43  60  40  62 /   0   0   0  10
Durant OK         46  65  46  68 /   0   0   0  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...01
SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...04