751
FXUS64 KOUN 111140
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
540 AM CST Thu Dec 11 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 536 AM CST Thu Dec 11 2025

 - Above-average temperatures through Friday; turning cooler by
   this weekend.

 - Dry through early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Thursday)
Issued at 1218 AM CST Thu Dec 11 2025

Cool start to the day with morning lows in the 30s across the area.
Breezy southwest winds are expected to develop Thursday as pressure
gradient increases across the region. The southwest winds along with
mostly/partly sunny skies and downslope flow will lead to another
warm day with highs in the 70s (low possibly mid 70s) in western
parts of the fa with highs in the mid/upper 60s across the rest of
the fa. These temperatures will once again be 10-15 degrees above
average for this time of year.

Dewpoints are expected to increase Thursday which will keep RH
values from dropping too low but depending on the speed of the
dewpoint increase there is a low chance that some areas of elevated
fire weather conditions may develop. Confidence on this happening is
low but not out of the question especially with the breezy southwest
winds and warmer temperatures expected Thursday. Will not issue a
Fire Danger Statement (RFD) due to the low confidence but conditions
will need to be monitored for the potential need for one.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Thursday night through Saturday night)
Issued at 1218 AM CST Thu Dec 11 2025

Models show a 90-100 knot 500 mb jet moving across the Northern
Plains which will cause a weak cold front to move across the area
Thursday night into Friday. Breezy north to northeast winds are
expected behind the front. The airmass behind the front will also
lead to cooler, compared to Thursday, temperatures for Friday and
Saturday with highs in the 50s and low/mid 60s. Despite these
temperatures being cooler, the forecast highs are still about 5-10
degrees above average.

A secondary front is expected to move across the area late Saturday
with breezy/gusty north to northeast winds behind the front. This
front will bring another shot of cold air to the region with lows
Saturday night in the teens (northern and central OK) to low/mid 20s
(southern OK and western north TX). These temperatures combined with
the breezy winds will lead to even colder wind chills in the single
digits and teens across the fa.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 1218 AM CST Thu Dec 11 2025

The colder temperatures will continue Sunday with highs in the mid
30s to mid 40s across the area. These temperatures are ~15 degrees
below average. The even colder wind chills will continue during at
least part of the day Sunday.

Southerly winds are expected to return Sunday night with
temperatures back into the 50s and 60s on Monday. The warmer
temperatures are expected to continue into at least the middle of
next week.

Models show a pattern shift towards the middle of next week with a
southern stream shortwave moving across the region Tuesday. However,
despite this shortwave and the multiple cold front passages over the
next 7 days, the chances for any precipitation are very low with
most if not all of the fa expected to remain dry into at least the
middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 536 AM CST Thu Dec 11 2025

Low-level winds shear of 30 to 45 knots remains possible through
mid-morning at all sites with an increased low-level jet.
Southerly surface winds will increase this morning with VFR
conditions at all sites. Southerly winds will relax this
afternoon before a cold front brings a return to northerly winds
across the northern Oklahoma sites early tomorrow morning and
through the central Oklahoma sites shortly before daybreak. The
front will be through all sites by mid-morning Friday with
increasing northerly winds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  64  42  55  30 /   0   0   0   0
Hobart OK         67  39  60  29 /   0   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  69  41  65  32 /   0   0   0   0
Gage OK           73  38  55  29 /   0   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     65  40  52  27 /   0   0   0   0
Durant OK         63  43  64  36 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...25
SHORT TERM...25
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...23