769
FXUS64 KOUN 121130
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
530 AM CST Wed Nov 12 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 528 AM CST Wed Nov 12 2025

 - Warm weather this week. Near-record temperatures possible on
   Friday and Saturday.

 - Storm chances possible early Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 1157 PM CST Tue Nov 11 2025

Our forecast area will spend the next 24 hours in a col in the
continental pressure gradient. Because of that, winds will be light
out of the east during the daytime. In the absence of any mechanism
to actually cool the day off, temperatures will continue to be above
average with mostly sunny skies.

Meister

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Wednesday night through Thursday night)
Issued at 1157 PM CST Tue Nov 11 2025

The axis of an amplified ridge will move overhead during the day on
Thursday. Enough northwest flow will exist for development of a
modest surface lee trough. With a surface high still dominating over
the southeastern states and Gulf Coast, that will bring in breezy
southerly winds. Fortunately from a fire weather perspective, by
Thursday morning we will start seeing the return of 50+ dewpoints
across at least the eastern 2/3 of the forecast area. There`s some
potential for the dryline to mix east of the 100th meridian and
bring marginal elevated fire weather to far western Oklahoma/north
Texas, but this would be limited spatiotemporally. The other story
from Thursday will be our temperatures, which will bump another 5
degrees to get well into the unseasonably warm category.

We hit the tipping point from "unseasonably warm" to "record heat"
on Friday. This will occur as the ridge further amplifies directly
over the longitude of the Plains, with 500 mb heights approaching a
near-mid-November-record 586 dam in the afternoon. Surface
temperatures themselves will range from the mid 70s in northern
Oklahoma to the mid 80s in western north Texas.

Meister

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 1157 PM CST Tue Nov 11 2025

We continue to trend toward a slower trough/cutoff low ejection late
this weekend into early next week. In practical terms, this has
decreased the chance for precipitation across our area and also
means that Saturday is looking like another day of potential record
heat. In fact, our gridded forecast now shows Saturday to be the
warmest day of the upcoming period. We may even push 90 degrees in
parts of western north Texas. Once again, most of the area should
reside within the moist sector, so fire weather concerns are
mitigated. With that said, we will have to watch the dryline`s
progression.

Forecast models are coming into increasing agreement in showing the
upper-level low being completely sheared apart before it even
arrives in our area. This has produced the somewhat comical trend
over the last several days where operational guidance has faded from
considering a possible heavy rain/flood event over the weekend in
southern Oklahoma to an event where our gridded forecast fails to
exceed a 30 percent chance of rain anywhere in our area. While rain
chances over the weekend have decreased, there also is not much of a
sign of a Gulf-scouring cold front, so we`ll continue to monitor the
middle to latter portions of the month for potential storm chances.

Meister

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 528 AM CST Wed Nov 12 2025

VFR conditions are expected through the period. Light and variable
winds early this morning will become easterly later this morning
and eventually become southeast this evening but will remain
fairly light at 5-10 mph.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  72  47  76  55 /   0   0   0   0
Hobart OK         75  43  78  47 /   0   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  75  47  80  56 /   0   0   0   0
Gage OK           71  41  76  41 /   0   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     72  43  74  50 /   0   0   0   0
Durant OK         74  52  79  60 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...04
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...08