326
FXUS64 KOUN 111123
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
523 AM CST Tue Nov 11 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 521 AM CST Tue Nov 11 2025

 - Breezy conditions and elevated fire weather Tuesday.

 - Warmer weather this week. Near-record temperatures possible later
   in the week.

 - Storm chances this weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Tuesday)
Issued at 1247 AM CST Tue Nov 11 2025

A strong westerly low-level jet has developed early this morning
with the KTLX VAD showing peak boundary layer winds of 50 knots.
Despite strong static stability at the surface beneath extreme 850
mb WAA, mechanical mixing + the pressure gradient are enough for
winds to remain in the 10-20 mph range with gusts up to 25 mph
through early morning.

By daybreak, a surface trough will extend southward from a low
pressure in northern Ontario down through the central and southern
High Plains. Immediately southeast of that surface trough will be
the tightest pressure gradient. And it will be tight indeed:
perhaps a full 10 mb gradient between Woodward and Ada. As static
stability decreases with insolation, winds will increase through
the morning. The primary limiting factor will be rather shallow
boundary layer depths preventing greater mixing of the mid-level
jet. With that said, the southern half of our CWA should still see
frequent southerly wind gusts of 30+ mph. Combined with much
warmer temperatures and limited moisture return (RHs 17-22%), fire
weather conditions will easily reach into the elevated category
during the daytime hours.

Meister

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday night through Thursday night)
Issued at 1247 AM CST Tue Nov 11 2025

The surface trough will weaken/depart overnight so that by
Wednesday, the surface pattern will be rather weak/unfocused. In the
absence of any sort of forcing for change, expect another day of
sunny skies and above-normal temperatures. Fire danger will be low
thanks to the weaker winds.

Ridging aloft continues on Thursday, but mid-level flow will begin
to increase from the WNW. As we have seen again and again (and
again, and again) lately, this pattern favors lee troughing, limited
low/mid cloud cover (though perhaps some high clouds - not enough to
impact temperatures, but enough to give us another pretty sunset),
and warming temperatures. We probably will be about 5 degrees short
of setting any daily record highs, but the warmth will still be
highly anomalous.

Meister

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 1247 AM CST Tue Nov 11 2025

A jolt to the pattern will finally occur on Friday as the dominant
subtropical ridge is impinged upon by a trough coming ashore on the
West Coast. This will shove the ridge eastward toward and beyond our
CWA. What does that mean for us? Well, in a word: heat. 80-degree
temperatures could make it as far north as places like Gage or
Stillwater on Friday afternoon.  The good news is that this will
occur in an environment of limited moisture return - not enough to
bring out the phrase "heat indices" (and how wild is it to even be
considering that in mid-November?), but enough to preclude greater
fire danger even with breezy southerly winds.

The trough will impact the area this weekend. Recent model trends
have, if anything, added to the uncertainty in the forecast, as they
look to be leaning toward a long-lived cutoff low solution. These
cutoff lows are notoriously difficult to forecast, particularly in
the realm of QPF. A few trends across multiple suites of ensembles
guidance have been the presence of at least some near-surface-based
instability along a Pacific front late Saturday night, as well as a
trend for the greatest precip chances/highest QPFs over the weekend
to be across the southern half of the CWA. We`ll continue to monitor
the forecast.

Following the passage of the trough, it looks like we`ll see a
cooldown (at least relative to this week) for a few days.

Meister

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 521 AM CST Tue Nov 11 2025

VFR conditions are expected through the period, with mainly clear
skies other than occasional high cirrus moving in from the north
and northwest. Winds will become gusty out of the south this
morning and continue into the afternoon before becoming light and
variable this evening and overnight, with a light northerly wind
shift across northern OK.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  71  42  71  47 /   0   0   0   0
Hobart OK         77  40  74  43 /   0   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  77  43  74  47 /   0   0   0   0
Gage OK           76  39  71  41 /   0   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     69  39  71  43 /   0   0   0   0
Durant OK         69  46  74  50 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...04
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...08