799
FXUS64 KOUN 121907
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
205 PM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1227 PM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

- Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible late this afternoon
  and evening across northern Oklahoma.

- Hot and humid conditions through at least midweek next week.

- Elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions possible
  Monday afternoon across the west.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Tonight)
Issued at 205 PM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

Isolated showers and thunderstorms will remain possible early this
afternoon across central Oklahoma, with additional storm
development expected late this afternoon into this evening.

An outflow boundary pushing in from the northeast helped to develop
scattered showers and storms across north central and central
Oklahoma this morning. Since then, convergence along this boundary
has weakened and only isolated showers/storms remain. The airmass
north of this outflow boundary has also stabilized in the short
term. So isolated showers/storms over central Oklahoma may persist
early this afternoon, but the activity is on the decrease.

Farther west and south, convective inhibition is decreasing and many
convective-allowing models show storms developing late this
afternoon across northwest and perhaps central Oklahoma. MLCAPE is
already 2000-3000 J/kg per SPC mesoanalysis. Deep layer shear of 30
to 40 knots is progged across northern Oklahoma late this afternoon
which would support some organized thunderstorms. With that, the SPC
did upgrade the severe weather outlook to Slight Risk for late this
afternoon and evening which is reasonable. It is likely we will see
thunderstorm redevelopment late this afternoon into this evening
with severe weather possible, both hail and strong winds. Storms
will likely not be widespread enough for significant drought relief
in many areas, although heavy rainfall is possible in localized
areas. The severe weather potential and storm coverage are expected
to decrease late this evening or early Sunday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday through Monday night)
Issued at 205 PM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

The upper ridge builds stronger over the area, and the heating trend
returns to the area. A Heat Advisory will likely be necessary on
Sunday, but there is a little question on if any outflow from
overnight/morning thunderstorms may take enough off the heat to keep
some areas below criteria, so will defer on issuing an advisory
until the geography is more clear.

Another hot day is expected on Monday, but winds will be a little
stronger in western Oklahoma as surface low pressure deepens in
southeast Colorado. Although the minimum humidity is currently
projected to be 20 to 25 percent, the higher wind speeds are still
expected to push fire weather conditions into the elevated category
on Monday afternoon across the west.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 210 AM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

The subtropical ridge will remain centered across the southeast
United States through at least the middle part of next week.
Oklahoma and north Texas will be on the western periphery of the
ridge with a strong low-level thermal ridge. Above-normal
temperatures are likely to continue with high temperatures in the
90s to mid 100s deg F. Bias-corrected probabilistic guidance
indicates little temperature spread through Wednesday (e.g., the
10th percentile is above-normal), which indicates high confidence
of above-normal temperatures.

Northern and western Oklahoma will be close enough to stronger
flow aloft (on the periphery of the ridge known as the ring of
fire), where there will be occasional chances of showers and
thunderstorms from remnant convection or nearby fronts.

Ensemble spread does increase by late next week into the
following weekend (September 18-20), which indicates the potential
for a pattern change with the subtropical ridge breaking down and
a stronger cold front advancing southward into the area. It`s not
a guarantee, but there is a 40 to 70% chance of high temperatures
below 90 deg F on Sunday, September 20 (40% south; 70% north).
The coldest end of guidance even indicates a low to medium chance
(10 to 40%) of high temperatures below 80 deg F.

Mahale

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1227 PM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

Still have some isolated convection from earlier this morning
that came down from Kansas into northcentral Oklahoma which has
been intermittently impacting terminals KPNC & KSWO. Will
maintain PROB30 for -TSRA and VCTS amendments when/if needed at
least through 22Z at these two terminals. Otherwise there is a 30%
chance for another round of convection initiating between 21-07Z
across northern Oklahoma which could briefly reduce visibilities
2-4 miles in rain at terminals KPNC, KSWO,KCSM, and KWWR although
ceilings may not be that low. As far as central Oklahoma, will
have 30% probability for -TSRA from 21-24Z at terminals KOKC &
KOUN which could briefly reduce those terminals to an MVFR
category in rain then staying at a VFR category through the
remainder of the forecast. All other terminals not mentioned
should remain in a VFR category through the entire forecast
period. Surface winds will generally stay southerly across most of
our terminals although storm outflow boundaries coming down from
Kansas are keeping winds more variable in direction across
terminals in northern Oklahoma.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  75  99  76  98 /  20   0   0   0
Hobart OK         76 102  77 101 /  10   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  76 103  76 102 /   0   0   0   0
Gage OK           71 101  75 100 /  30  10   0   0
Ponca City OK     70  97  73  97 /  30  10   0   0
Durant OK         76 101  76 101 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for OKZ021>025-
     027>048-050>052.

TX...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...10
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...68