622
FXUS63 KPAH 011136
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
636 AM CDT Mon Sep 1 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Labor Day will feature near normal temperatures in the mid
  80s. Can`t completely rule out a shower in the southern KY
  Pennyrile this afternoon.

- Isolated to scattered showers and storms are possible from
  tonight through Thursday. Unfortunately, amounts will be
  light (0.10-0.25" at best) and likely won`t help with our
  worsening drought situation.

- Multiple frontal passages late in the week will lead to
  reinforcing shots of cool fall-like temperatures. Highs in the
  70s are likely on Thursday and appear increasingly likely
  again next weekend after a brief warm-up on Friday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 633 AM CDT Mon Sep 1 2025

Updated aviation discussion for 12z TAFs.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 203 AM CDT Mon Sep 1 2025

Broad region of weak 500mb troughing from the Plains to the Mid-
Atlantic will gradually amplify in the days ahead. Then as the polar
jet buckles and sends a shortwave barreling out of Canada on
Wednesday a deep upper low will form over the Upper Midwest and
slowly spin across Ontario, Canada through the end of the week. This
results in an anomalously strong 500mb trough setting up over the
Great Lakes/Ohio Valley late in the week into next weekend.

There is some weak energy in the 850/700mb flow centered over mid TN
today that will likely lead to some isolated/scattered convection to
our southeast this afternoon and evening. There is some guidance
that suggests our southern KY Pennyrile may get clipped later this
afternoon or evening so went ahead and put a slight PoP in for this
possibility. Additionally, a mid-level wave over eastern Nebraska
now will slowly sink southeastward tonight into Tuesday. The wave
weakens as it does so though, so likely will struggle to generate
much in the way of precip overnight. It appears it may merge with
the leftover energy over TN on Tuesday and could result in some
uptick in isolated to widely scattered convection for west KY during
the afternoon and evening. Certainly doesn`t look like much though.

A strong cold front will plow through the region Wednesday night
into Thursday morning, and may be accompanied by some light precip.
However, the better forcing remains well north, so won`t be
surprised if the coverage and intensity is meager across our region.
A secondary frontal passage on Friday into Friday night may also
offer up some small rain chances, but amounts will remain light.
Overall, not looking like much, if any, relief from the worsening
drought. Probably looking at amounts ranging from 0.1" to 0.25"
this week, and others that don`t even see that.

Temperatures will range from the low-mid 80s through Wednesday,
which is near or slightly below normal. Much cooler air descends
across the region on Thursday with highs only in the 70s expected. A
brief warm-up back into the low-mid 80s is currently expected on
Friday, before another frontal passage brings a return to highs in
the 70s next weekend. NBM is struggling to latch onto this, largely
due to the fact the GEFS and even the Canadian ensemble solutions
are warmer, keeping us in the low 80s for highs. However, the
preferred solution continues to be the ECMWF/UKMET solutions which
cools us down into the mid 70s for highs. Overnight lows likely will
fall well into the 50s and might drop into the 40s a night or
two.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 633 AM CDT Mon Sep 1 2025

VFR conditions continue this TAF cycle. Light northeast winds
will increase to 5-7 kts by late morning and then become light
again with sunset. Mid to high level clouds will be on the
increase through the period, along with a gradual lowering of
ceilings tonight.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...SP
DISCUSSION...SP
AVIATION...SP