131
FXUS63 KPAH 011938
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
138 PM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Drizzle and light rain will gradually diminish across the
  region through Monday morning, but overcast conditions and
  steady temperatures in the middle to upper 50s will continue.

- Another round of widespread rainfall will arrive over the
  Ozark Foothills Tuesday morning, then move slowly eastward
  across the entire region and eventually exit to the east by
  midday Wednesday. Forecast rainfall totals over most of the
  region are in the 1 to 2 inch range.

- South winds will become gusty on Tuesday with gusts in the 30
  to 40 mph range possible. There is a 50-90% chance of max
  wind gusts reaching or exceeding 30 mph on Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 138 PM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

Cloudy, mild, and wet conditions will continue this afternoon as
a large area of light rain and drizzle gradually spreads north
across the region. The precipitation will gradually diminish
tonight into Monday, but the low overcast conditions are likely
to linger through at least Monday. The upside is that
temperatures will be fairly steady in the mid to upper 50s
tonight which is 10-15 degrees above normal.

Our next storm system will impact the Quad State Tuesday through
Wednesday as a north/south oriented band of showers moves slowly
eastward across the region ahead of a cold front. Elevated
instability remains very limited and focused more over
southeast Missouri early on Tuesday, but as the band moves east
away from the upper trough, any thunder should diminish.
Rainfall amounts remain in the 1" to 2" range with the highest
amounts expected in the south and west and the least in the
northeast. The NBM has a 70-90% chance of at least 1" of
rainfall over most of the region, with the exception being
southwest Indiana where the chance is only 50%. The probability
of 2" is very low at this time.

Precipitable water values 200-300% of normal or near the 99th
percentile of climatology, coupled with a slow moving band or
rain, certainly creates a concern for heavy rainfall, and some
minor flooding issues cannot be ruled out mainly Tuesday and
Tuesday night. If the upper system were to trend farther south,
closer to the Quad State, the increased instability could result
in more of a heavy rainfall and flooding threat, and possibly
even a severe storm threat. We will keep an eye on it.

Another aspect of the Tuesday storm system will be strong south
winds. It looks like the strongest winds will be from the
bootheel region north northeast through Carbondale and Mt Vernon
Illinois, and they may be focused in the morning. The NBM which
tends to underperform on windy days only has a 20-60% chance of
wind gusts exceeding 30 mph over southeast Missouri and
southern Illinois, but the 00Z NAEFS/ECENS have a 50-90% chance
throughout the area. The 12Z REFS, however, has a 90% chance of
reaching 30 mph over the entire area, and a 30-50% chance of
reaching 40 mph over the favored portions of southeast Missouri
and southern Illinois. We will continue to monitor the situation
for a potential Wind Advisory for some portion of the region
Tuesday.

Behind the cold front, the entire region should be dry by
Wednesday night, and temperatures should drop to near normal for
Friday into next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1135 AM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

IFR/LIFR drizzle will linger through the entire period at KCGI
and KPAH. KPAH could see some brief periods of MVFR this
afternoon. The drizzle will spread north over the other sites
early this afternoon. At KMVN the drizzle may not last much
past this afternoon, but IFR ceilings are expected to linger
well into the morning. KEVV and KOWB will see occasional
drizzle/light rain through daybreak. At this time, the
prevailing category should be MVFR, with some brief periods of
IFR possible. Winds will be from the southeast at or below 10kts
throughout the forecast.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DRS
AVIATION...DRS