330
FXUS63 KPAH 291830
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
130 PM CDT Sat Aug 29 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Confidence has increased to a 70-90% chance of a heatwave impacting
  the region next week, with heat index values of 100+ degrees.
  Heat headlines will be needed.

- Dry conditions will persist well into next week with a 20%ish
  chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms making a return
  on Thursday night through the weekend. Rain chances will bring
  limited relief from the heat at best heading into next
  weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 128 PM CDT Sat Aug 29 2026

A potent 594 dm ridge shifts east over the area today through
Monday. Drier air is mixing down this afternoon and bringing our
dewpoints down into the lower 60s and even a few upper 50s. Sfc
high pressure will build to our east tomorrow and bring
southerly/southwesterly return flow. Even with the increase in
moisture transport, dewpoints will still be in the 60s tomorrow.
This will allow for highs to climb into the lower to mid 90s.

Next week continues to look hot with heat indices reaching 100+
degrees as early as Monday out west in the NBM. The LREF starts to
increase the probabilities of 100+ degree heat indices on Monday
with a 20-40% chance and jumps up to a 60-80% chance on Tuesday, and
a 70-90% chance on Wednesday and Thursday. While a few sites
might hit a heat index of 105 (Heat Advisory criteria), a Heat
Advisory will still be necessary due to there being 4
consecutive days of heat indices of 100+.

The ridge aloft begins to flatten on Thursday and then shifts west
on Friday and Saturday. Friday and Saturday may still be hot though
with highs potentially in the mid 90s and LREF probs of 50-70% of
heat indices of 100+ on Friday, and 40-60% on Saturday. Some
weak, scattered 20%ish PoPs re-enter the forecast late week into
the weekend as a few ripples move through the ridge and a cold
front stalls to the north. However, ensembles are slightly more
robust with precip chances during that time frame, which could
bring a little more (albeit still limited) relief from the heat.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Sat Aug 29 2026

VFR conditions expected through the end of the period. A diurnal
cu deck is forming across the area this afternoon at around 6k
ft with a little bit of high cirrus above that. Skies should
clear out overnight with winds going calm. Fog potential seems
less likely tonight as we are less likely to hit the crossover
temperatures with afternoon dewpoints in the lower 60s and
overnight lows in the upper 60s. Another diurnal cu deck should
form tomorrow with similar conditions to today and increased
southwest sfc flow.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...HICKFORD
AVIATION...HICKFORD