213
FXUS63 KPAH 300706
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
206 AM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry conditions with slightly below normal temperatures (low to
  mid 80s) will persist through the holiday weekend.

- Chances for isolated to scattered showers and storms finally
  returns Monday night into Tuesday and lingers through early
  Thursday. Probability of beneficial rain amounts to alleviate
  the worsening drought situation are low though.

- Strong signal for a significant cool down later next week,
  with a good possibility of temperatures even lower than what
  we witnessed this past week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 205 AM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025

The large scale pattern will continue to feature troughing across
the eastern CONUS and ridging across the west through the first week
of September. Surface high pressure across the Great Lakes is
keeping dry northeasterly flow in place across our area this holiday
weekend. Meanwhile, shortwave energy across the Central Plains will
slowly slide southeast into the lower Ohio Valley by Monday night
into Tuesday. Lift associated with the wave will help kick off
scattered showers and storms, with coverage likely greatest during
the afternoon on Tuesday.

As we approach mid-week, the polar jet buckles and sends a shortwave
barreling south out of Canada. This will induce an amplified trough
and an anomalously deep upper low across the Great Lakes. Certainly
looks more reminiscent of early October as opposed to early
September. A strong cold front will plow through our area Wednesday
night into early Thursday, leading to another chance for showers and
possibly a storm.

Due to the upper trough across the eastern CONUS, the moisture
return will be rather weak ahead of both features next week. Thus,
while probabilities for measurable rain continue to look somewhat
promising, the chances for widespread beneficial rain to help the
developing drought situation are quite low. Looking at the DESI LREF
guidance shows a 60-80% probability of observing 0.1", but only
around 20-40% of 0.5" and less than 20% for 1".

Low humidity levels will allow a larger diurnal range to continue
with highs reaching the low to mid 80s this weekend and overnight
lows falling into the mid 50s to low 60s. Highs on Tuesday may
remain in the 70s in many areas due to more pronounced cloud cover
and scattered showers/storms around. After the frontal passage mid
week, there is a good chance that we witness temperatures even
cooler than what we just experienced this past week as 850mb temps
drop into the 5-8C range. NBM only has highs reaching the low 70s on
Thursday with overnight lows falling into the 40s Friday morning.
These readings could flirt close to record territory, both for
record cool highs and record lows. Guidance is hinting that we may
have a double-dip with a secondary front moving through next Friday
night or Saturday that would provide a reinforcing shot of cool air
to start next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 939 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025

High pressure will keep conditions quiet again for the 06z TAF
package. Shallow fog development, generally MVFR, is still expected
again in the usual favored terminals (MVN, CGI, PAH) between
09-13z. Otherwise some FEW-SCT diurnal CU during the afternoon
hours will be the only sky cover of note. Cloud bases will be
generally around 5kft to 10kft. Light and variable winds
overnight will increase from the NE around 5-8 kts during the
afternoon, relaxing under 5 kts after 00z Sunday.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...SP
AVIATION...DWS