759
FXUS63 KPAH 251740
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1140 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- An area of rain will come to an end from the west this
  morning, then another round of showers will be possible this
  afternoon and evening.

- Gusty west to northwest winds will develop behind a cold front
  late tonight through Wednesday. The winds will usher in dry
  and seasonably chilly weather for Wednesday through Friday,

- Unsettled weather returns late Friday night and will continue
  through next week. A wintry mix cannot be completely ruled out
  early Saturday morning. However, all rain is expected by late
  Saturday morning and through the remainder of the weekend.

- Locally heavy rainfall of 1.5 to 3.5 inches is forecast
  Saturday through next Tuesday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1136 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2025

Updated aviation discussion for the 18z TAF issuance.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 256 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2025

Gusty south winds will be possible over the next few hours of
the southern end of the Lakes and through much of the Pennyrile
of west Kentucky. A surface low will ride up through that region
from west Tennessee and cause the strong south winds as it
approaches. Wind gusts 25-35 mph will be possible, but it should
only last a few hours. A Special Weather Statement may be
needed, but a Wind Advisory shouldn`t be necessary.

Not seeing any lightning strikes so far, and the 00Z HREF does
not bring any tangible MUCAPE into the area, so the thunder may
not materialize. Regardless, the rain should come to an end from
the west through the morning. However, as the larger-scale upper
trough approaches the region this afternoon and evening, some
scattered showers will be possible. An additional 0.75" of
rainfall is still expected near and just south of the Ohio
River.

A strong cold front will push through the area tonight, and
gusty west northwest winds are expected to develop late tonight
through much of Wednesday. The strongest winds will be across
the northern half of the Quad State where gusts 30 to 40 mph
will be possible. The strong winds will bring much cooler and
drier air to the entire region for Wednesday through at least
Friday. Temperatures will be 5 to 10 degrees below normal
through that period.

A very unsettled weather pattern will develop going into the
weekend and through the first half of next week. In general, a
trough aloft is expected to develop over the west, leading to
persistent and active southwest or nearly zonal flow over the
eastern half of the country. With the cold surface high
initially in place across the region going into Friday night,
warm advection is likely to produce fairly widespread
precipitation over the Plains and into the Mississippi Valley.
There are a multitude differences within the ensemble guidance
which will impact both temperatures and precipitation timing and
type.

Depending on the details of the trough out west, some of the
warm advection precipitation could reach southeast Missouri and
southern Illinois by daybreak Saturday. The 00Z ensembles
indicate very little chance of sub-freezing temperatures
remaining across the Quad State at sunrise Saturday, especially
southeast Missouri. However, the NBM is still generating some
light snow accumulations over southeast Missouri and southern
Illinois early Saturday. If this were to occur any impacts would
be minimal and would dissipate later Saturday morning. While
there are various other scenarios that could result in a wintry
concern through early next week, confidence in anything
impactful is quite low at this time.

With persistent precipitation chances from Saturday through next
Tuesday, some heavy rainfall will be possible. Four day forecast
rainfall ranges from 1.5" in the far north to 3.5" over the far
south. This could be way overdone, especially if we get
substantial cold air into the region.

There is a lot to be worked out yet for the weekend and into
next week, and until more of a consensus develops it will be
difficult to have confidence in any one solution.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1136 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2025

Low clouds, fog and drizzle will lift and diminish from west to
east this afternoon and early this evening as an area of low
pressure centered over the region exits to the east. This will
bring a return of VFR conditions by late tonight. However, a
powerful cold front will push through the region between 06-12z,
and winds will increase from the W-NW, sustained at 12-18 kts
with gusts around 24-30 kts through the rest of the forecast
period.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...Wind Advisory from 3 AM to 3 PM CST Wednesday for ILZ076>078.
MO...None.
IN...Wind Advisory from 3 AM CST /4 AM EST/ to 3 PM CST /4 PM EST/
     Wednesday for INZ081-082.
KY...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DWS
DISCUSSION...DRS
AVIATION...DWS