181
FXUS63 KPAH 060725
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
225 AM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Heavy rainfall is expected today into Tuesday with average
  totals between 1 to 3 inches. Localized higher amounts are
  possible.

- The risk for some flooding has increased, particularly Tuesday
  morning over the Kentucky Pennyrile due to training storms.
  Isolated flooding issues are also possible across the rest of
  the region.

- A period of dry weather remains on track for the latter half
  of the week with temperatures near to slightly below normal.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 225 AM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025

A cold front over the Plains and vort maxes associated with a
broad mid-level trough will bring a period of wet weather to the
FA today into Tuesday. HRRR model soundings show a 30 kt
nocturnal LLJ around 925 mb that will support a robust moisture
transport. The NAEFS and ECMWF ESAT now both indicate 10-year
return intervals for PWATS reaching 1.75 to 2.00 inches. Meager
instability and shear continue to favor heavy rainfall being the
main concern with the bulk of pcpn falling over a 36 hour
period. The general consensus is for showers and thunderstorms
to quickly develop this morning and turn more widespread in the
the afternoon and evening. Somewhat of a lull will then occur
at night before the most numerous pcpn that will pose the
greatest risk of heavy rain occurs Tuesday morning into early
Tuesday afternoon.

The 0z HREF PMM for QPF is more concerning in showing an axis
of 3.0 to 5.0 inches across the Kentucky Pennyrile while 0.5 to
2.0 inches over the remainder of the FA due to a sharp gradient.
The HRRR and ARW in particular is hinting at the potential for
even locally higher amounts. Overall, the risk of flooding has
increased due to the wetter signal with a slight ERO now
progged by the WPC. The greatest concern will be primarily over
the Kentucky Pennyrile Tuesday morning with training convection
along a baroclinic zone as frontogenesis increases with a cold
front approaching from the west. Although the risk is lower,
minor isolated flooding issues due to runoff will also be
possible across the rest of the FA. Overall, the general
consensus is now for 1 to 3 inches of rainfall over much of the
region, with locally higher amounts.

Temperatures will be much cooler from the thick cloud cover to start
off the week with highs only in the 70s. Lowered NBM temps for today
with a blend of the CONSShort and HREF that is more in line with MOS
guidance. After the cold front sweeps through Tuesday night,
temperatures will remain near to slightly below normal through the
remainder of the week with 850 mb temps around 8 to 10C. A 1030 to
1034 mb sfc high pressure over the Great Lakes region will also
support ample dry weather, suppressing any moisture to the south as
a 500 mb longwave trough digs across the eastern CONUS next
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1115 PM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025

Skies will be clear for most of the overnight, clouds will start
to move in from the south closer to morning. Cigs will lower
through the morning to MVFR. IFR cigs are expected closer to the
evening. Showers and thunderstorm chances ramp up through the
day with thunderstorms being most likely at CGI, PAH, and OWB
during the afternoon hours. There is some uncertainty in how far
north the lightning could be. During the evening hours there may
be a break in activity for CGI and MVN, where as showers are
still possible to likely for PAH, OWB, and EVV.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DW
AVIATION...HICKFORD