424
FXUS63 KPAH 052348
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
648 PM CDT Sat Sep 5 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- An Extreme Heat Warning remains in effect for the whole area through
  8 PM tonight. A Heat Advisory is in effect for the western
  four SEMO counties along with Stoddard, New Madrid, and Fulton
  counties from 8 PM tonight through 8 PM tomorrow night.

- Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will be
  possible throughout the Quad State this afternoon and evening.
  Gusty winds, lightning and brief heavy downpours will be the
  primary concerns.

- Labor Day will be the choice day of the weekend, with highs
  around 90, much less humidity, and a light northeast wind. The
  relative cool down will be brief, as triple digit heat index
  values return for much of the Quad State Wednesday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 648 PM CDT Sat Sep 5 2026

Updated the aviation section for the 00Z TAF issuance.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 143 PM CDT Sat Sep 5 2026

A sfc cold front to our north will slowly sink south today and
tonight. We could see some isolated to scattered showers/storms pop
up with the heat of the day ahead of the front. Right now location
is lower confidence as there are no boundaries around to focus
development. Timing still looks to be now through 06Z at the latest
tonight. Some of these storms could be strong to severe for damaging
winds. Conditions are dry the rest of the weekend behind the cold
front. Temperatures are slightly cooler with the exception of the
four western SEMO counties plus Stoddard, New Madrid, and Fulton
counties where a Heat Advisory is in effect for tomorrow for one
more day of 100+ degree heat indices.

The slightly cooler and drier weather continues through Monday
before the ridging aloft to the west re-centers overhead by Tuesday
morning. Heat indices return to the upper 90s on Tuesday and back to
the 100+ degree mark on Wednesday. The ridge begins to flatten and
break down Wednesday afternoon into Thursday. Slightly cooler and
more unsettled weather for Thursday ahead of an approaching cold
front. 20-30% PoPs move through the area on Thursday just ahead of
the front. Scattered 15-20% PoPs are in the forecast on Friday
behind the front. Overall the forecast is lower confidence
heading into next weekend due to model differences.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 648 PM CDT Sat Sep 5 2026

A few isolated thunderstorms remain but will diminish over the
next couple hours. Winds will calm and some vsby drops can occur
in areas which saw fog last night and/or rain today.
Northeasterly winds move in late and will end fog potential,
with an MVFR band of clouds of SCT-BKN coverage moving across
much of the Quad State. Cigs lift to VFR later in the day Sunday
with northeasterly winds rising to 7-10kts.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for
     ILZ075>078-080>094.
MO...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for MOZ076-
     086-087-100-107>112-114.
     Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Sunday for MOZ107>110-114.
IN...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT /9 PM EDT/ this evening
     for INZ081-082-085>088.
KY...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for
     KYZ001>022.
     Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Sunday for KYZ001.

&&

$$

UPDATE...ATL
DISCUSSION...HICKFORD
AVIATION...ATL