141
FXUS63 KPAH 030247
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
947 PM CDT Fri Oct 2 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A cold front is moving through the Quad State this afternoon.
  Rain coverage and intensity is beginning to decrease but light
  rain may persist through this evening.

- Temperatures become more seasonably normal today through the
  week ahead, with dry weather expected for the weekend and next
  week. Late next week the probabilities are climbing for above
  normal (but not exceptionally hot) temperatures once again.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 105 PM CDT Fri Oct 2 2026

Widespread rainfall overnight and this morning produced between
a half inch near I-64 to hot spots over 3 inches in the southern
half of the area today. Pockets of heavier rain is continuing
across southwest Kentucky with lingering light rain behind it.
The surface front runs from the Missouri Bootheel to about
Madisonville, KY at 1pm and will continue as low march south.
Overrunning ascent above the cold front is redeveloping clouds
and light rain over southeast Missouri and that redevelopment
could continue for another couple of hours. Subtle ascent above
the frontal zone will likely keep some cloud cover in place
across the southern half of the area, with a small chance of a
shower or two as well through the day Saturday. Although there
should be a sharp cutoff between grungy low clouds and generally
clear skies.

Another little shot of drier and slightly cooler air arrives
Monday before a surface ridge axis passes to the east of the
area and shifts our flow a little more southerly. The trend for
temperatures in the mid to late week next week is upward and the
probability of highs going back above 80 degrees is above 50%
and climbing. Overall conditions look dry through this period.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 943 PM CDT Fri Oct 2 2026

Very tricky forecast with regards to cloud cover. On satellite
we are currently clearing out more than was expected, however
there is still the chance for moisture to overrun the front
tomorrow morning and given the light winds, clouds may build
back in over portions of the area. Right now confidence in
clouds building back over CGI and EVV are lower confidence, so
have only hinted at the possibility in the TAFs. Where skies
have cleared tonight winds should stay up enough to preclude any
significant fog development, but this could lead to more of a
low stratus situation which further complicates the forecast
possibilities.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JGG
AVIATION...HICKFORD