318
FXUS63 KPAH 171700
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1200 PM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is an enhanced risk of severe thunderstorms late
  Wednesday into Wednesday night. Damaging winds, tornadoes,
  and large hail are all possible.

- The hottest temperatures and heat index values of the season
  will arrive this weekend and continue into early next week.
  Daily peak heat index values of 100 to 105F are forecast,
  which will lead to an elevated risk of heat-related illness.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1200 PM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

Isolated to scattered heat of day showers/storms remain possible
into the evening, with locally heavy downpours and lightning
offering the primary near term storm associated hazards.

Higher risk severe weather remains on tap for tmrw, most specifically
from late in the afternoon into/thru the evening hours. There
is some question with onset timing as a decaying MCS or similar
upstream convective cloud shield could be overtopping the area
tmrw morning, so will offer a play into how instability develops
over the course of the day. All the CAMs suggest the real
frontal driven convection holds off til 21-24Z knocking on our
CWA doorstep.

When the front appears by late afternoon to early evening, it
will be tapping a destabilized air mass offering anywhere from
about 2K upwards to about 3.5K J/KG MUCAPE, with lapse rates
steepening into the 6-7 C/KM range. Shear increases to 40+ KTS
so all the ingredients are there with the intro of the front and
the parent upper trof sharpening on the synoptic scale for a
convective event to break out with all hazards potential. Still
high PW`s keep heavy rain as a hazard, storms will be moving but
repeat storms may still heighten the flooding potential, esp
given all the recent rainfall.

While some pop may linger into Thursday, eventually the system
clears and we go drier but also warmer under the increasing influence
of a building dome of high pressure. Combined with the
humidity, we could get into several days of near headline heat
potential with heat indices in the 100-105 range from this
weekend into early next week, as the risk of heat-related
health impacts grows given prolonged exposure to the heat.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1200 PM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

Restricted bases will continue to be a potential qualifier where
Vicinity showers/storms bubble up, otherwise an improving to VFR
trend will prevail into/thru the bulk of the night. Lower/restricted
bases will appear again during the planning phase of the forecast
as the next storm system takes shape/approaches.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$