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000
FXUS63 KPAH 130748
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
248 AM CDT Thu May 13 2021

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday night)
Issued at 245 AM CDT Thu May 13 2021

Continued anchoring of surface high pressure should provide a
repeat weather day today, compared to yesterday, insofar as
temperatures are concerned, as 850 MB temps remain neutrally
advective thru the bulk of the day. Wind should be relaxed some
from Wednesday`s gustiness, with the center of the high in closer
proximity to the area.

The next weather system takes shape/evolves and approaches the
region Friday-Friday night, as the surface high shifts its ridge
anchor to the east. This will allow the low level flow to veer
subtley with time, as dew points recover from the 30s, into the
40s, by 12Z Saturday. Time/height cross sections reveal the better
moisture advection is relegated to about 750 MB and above, so pcpn
chances will be kept silent. Friday highs should nudge up another
degree or two, around 70F, while Friday night lows settle and
hold around 50F thanks to better warm advection/clouds.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 245 AM CDT Thu May 13 2021

The start of the long term forecast period has northwesterly flow
aloft through the Quad State with a ridge over the Plains and a
trough off the East Coast. Surface high pressure is set up on the
East Coast which will keep the weekend dry for most of the
Southeast. Southerly surface flow across Texas brings moist air
into the Central Plains. A series of small disturbances is
expected to bring showers from this moisture plume into the
Midwest. A front is expected to set up this weekend near or north
of the Quad State. Highest rainfall amounts will generally be
along or north of that front. PoPs have shifted up for the Quad
State Saturday through Sunday, with the operational GFS and ECMWF
placing an inch of rain near the I-64 corridor. The operational
Canadian model actually puts the zone of highest precip along the
MO/AR and KY/TN borders. However, ensemble analysis finds these to
be among the rainier solutions, with the GFS ensemble the
rainiest of the three, but still less so than the operational GFS
for the weekend. Despite the operational Canadian model being a
very southward placement for the heavier rainfall, the Canadian
ensemble is actually the driest for the Quad State and the
furthest north placing for the front during the weekend. While the
NBM is more inclusive of thunder for Saturday night and Sunday
morning than the previous model cycle, thunder has been left out
of that time period for now in the interest of wanting to see if
the next model cycle will hold onto this shift rather than
bouncing back and forth.

For the start of next week, the high pressure on the East Coast is
expected to move further east, which will allow the moisture plume
from the south to shift eastward. Any appearance of a convergence
towards a stronger early week system in the Central Plains is
falling apart. There is high confidence on a rainy pattern for the
start into the middle of next week while the finer details of the
systems involved will need time to become clear. Some thunderstorms
are possible each day from Monday through Wednesday, primarily in
the heat of the day, though severe weather does not appear to be a
concern at this time.

Temperatures will continue to warm through Sunday, then hold fairly
steady afterwards with the current projection of an extended period
of time in the warm sector. Highs Sunday through midweek are
forecast to be in the upper 70s to near 80 while lows near 60 to the
lower 60s will be bolstered by high dew points.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 245 AM CDT Thu May 13 2021

Surface high pressure will remain anchored over our terminals thru
the forecast package, providing a continuation of VFR conditions
through Friday. The high`s center will run 2-4 MB higher, and sink
closer to our terminals, so northeast winds won`t be quite as
stiff or gusty as they were at times on Wednesday.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$