212
FXUS63 KPAH 201723
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1123 AM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above and near average temperatures continue through early
  next week.

- More beneficial rain is expected today through Friday night,
  around 1-2" expected by Saturday morning.

- Temperatures cool down for Thanksgiving next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 146 AM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

A weak sfc warm front is slowly lifting northward and will stall out
later today. WAA coupled with isentropic upglide will support
widespread showers and storms today. Given the set up, low cigs are
expected to hang around as well. This, in consideration with
the WAA, means our high-low spread should be around only 10 ish
degrees today, so brought highs down from NBM deterministic.
The front stays stalled before essentially dissolving on Friday.
This will keep us wet through Friday with around 1-2" total
accumulation expected. This is in line with PWATs around 1.5"
across the area.

In terms of severe potential, with the exception of the NAM which
brings some instability into the area, other models keep the best
instability to our south. Mid level lapse rates are also poor, about
4.5-5 degC/km. This will limit the severe potential.

Sfc high pressure builds in for the weekend and brings drier
conditions. Temperatures will be right around to just above average.

More wet weather is in store for the start of next week as an upper
level low ejects into the Plains. PoPs start to increase from the
southwest Sunday night (which might be a little too early according
to the EC and GFS) through Monday and taper off Tuesday afternoon
and evening. The sfc low moves through MO on Tuesday and brings a
cold front through. There is still some timing and placement
discrepancies between the EC and GFS though.

Behind the cold front a broader, longwave trof aloft funnels colder
air into the region for Thanksgiving and beyond, bringing below
normal temperatures. Models are in decent agreement with this
pattern shift.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1120 AM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

Poor flight conditions will continue into tonight and into
Friday with prevailing IFR to LIFR conditions. A front will
lift north through the region bringing rain/storm chances and
low visibility and ceilings. The current batch of light to
moderate rain will move east this afternoon with a lull expected
behind it. This lull will continue into the evening hours. Some
drying aloft may bring periods of drizzle. Low visibilities
will set in during this time as well. Another round of rain will
move in during the overnight period continuing into Friday
morning. Low cigs/visibility will accompany this rain with poor
flight conditions. Winds will be light through the period.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$