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000
FXUS63 KPAH 020750
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
150 AM CST Thu Feb 2 2023

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday night)
Issued at 150 AM CST Thu Feb 2 2023

Radar returns continue to show virga moving into southern
portions of Western Kentucky and the Missouri Bootheel region.
However, surface RHs quickly drop off to the north, leaving a
narrow region in which there is some potential for freezing
drizzle or very light sleet/snow to reach the ground. While
surface RH is high near the border, there is plenty of dry air
from 700 mb down to near the surface, significantly limiting
potential. Additional accumulations are unlikely. The bigger
concern will be cold temperatures early this morning in the 20s
enabling refreezing of mainly rural and secondary roads with black
ice development.

Most of the precipitation is south of the forecast area, moving
northeast in a plume of moisture extending from Texas. High
pressure is keeping winds calm in the Quad State region through
the early morning hours. As skies begin to clear, highs finally
reach well above freezing, allowing for significant melting of icy
surfaces. Highs were lowered towards the lower end of the model
range as icy surfaces and lingering clouds inhibit warming. A
cold front with the surface trough moves through tonight,
increasing winds out of the north. Cold air advection and clearing
skies send lows to the upper teens to lower 20s with wind chills
around 10-15. Cold weather continues Friday with highs near or
below freezing as high pressure moves southeastward towards the
Quad State. Winds become southerly and breezy late Saturday into
Saturday night, around 20-25 mph with gusts of 30-35 mph, lifting
highs to the 40s while lows Saturday night remain near or above
freezing.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 150 AM CST Thu Feb 2 2023

Sunday-Monday are dry with a high pressure ridge aloft moving
overhead. High pressure at the surface shifts east, allowing return
flow southerlies to warm mild Sunday temps in the lower 50s and
lower 30s into the upper 50s and upper 40s Monday. This sets the
stage for the mid week pcpn chance incoming.

Tuesday-Wednesday will see rain chances pick up over time, as the
ridge aloft shifts east, and low pressure troffing moves in from the
west. The models differ in their synoptic system handle, so we`ve
accepted the NBM`s blend solution, whereby a mean/warm/wet
southwesterly flow aloft prevails. The surface high is strong off
the Southeast U.S. so return Gulf moisture ahead of an approaching
strong wave will amply combine to produce this wet part of the
forecast. Nothing exceptional reads off the ESAT, but Wednesday
looks to be the wetter/breezier forecast day. Tuesday will be the
warmer, with upper 50s and maybe a 60 sneaking into our southeast
for highs. Wednesday, with more clouds/rain, falls back thru the
50s.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1112 PM CST Wed Feb 1 2023

VFR conditions appear likely at the TAF sites through the night.
Along the KY/TN border some airfields may see MVFR cig/vsby and
light precip. Winds are and should remain light through the
overnight and look somewhat unlikely to pick up much tomorrow as a
front approaches from the northwest. That front should arrive in
the late evening Thursday shifting winds to the north at 10 to 15
kt.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ATL
LONG TERM...DH
AVIATION...JGG