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000
FXUS63 KPAH 050835
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
335 AM CDT Fri Jun 5 2020

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday night)
Issued at 333 AM CDT Fri Jun 5 2020

Another MCS (Mesoscale Convective System), currently approaching
the Kansas City MO area as of 08z (3 am CDT) is projected to move
southeast and weaken somewhat as it moves into and across the
southeast Missouri Foothills (mainly Carter/Ripley/Wayne/Butler
counties) this morning, with some diurnal redevelopment during
the late afternoon.

The biggest forecast challenge and uncertainty lies with rain
chances late this evening, generally along and west of the
Mississippi River. Both the CAM`s and medium range numerical model
guidance running into timing issues with the next MCS working down
the eastern limb of the building central Plains ridge. At this
point, am inclined to lean toward the deterministic 00z Friday
GFS and ECMWF guidance, focusing instability and lift in a narrow
shear axis zone in southeast MO. Although not expressed in the SPC
Day 1 outlook, am more concerned with the severe potential late
tonight versus any limited severe potential this morning.

Previous thunderstorm outflows and differential heating/moisture
boundaries will interact with one last shortwave moving over the
ridge on Saturday morning and will bring small chances for showers
and thunderstorms during the early part of Saturday. By Saturday
night the ridge will dominate the area. Sunday and Sunday night
should be dry will slightly higher temperatures, as thicknesses
increase across the area.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 333 AM CDT Fri Jun 5 2020

The main feature to watch for the long term period will be the
remnants of Tropical Storm Cristobal.

At the start of the long term period, our area will be under the
influence of upper level high pressure. Cristobal will be moving
inland by late Sunday into early Monday and continue trekking
northward during the day. It will be another hot one on Monday with
highs topping out a few degrees either side of 90. Waking up Monday
morning will feel great with low humidity as dewpoints will be in
the upper 50s to lower 60s. However, humidity levels will rise
throughout the day, as low level moisture steadily increases.

Models are converging on a solution of how the remnants of Cristobal
will play out, especially earlier in the period. By 00Z Tuesday,
some light QPF may be invading the southern sections of the CWA in
association with some moisture on Cristobal`s northeastern
periphery. We will continue highlighting southeast MO as the
location that has the best chance of seeing some light
precipitation Monday afternoon.

As we head into Monday night, Cristobal heads straight north across
Arkansas and into central Missouri by Tuesday morning. While the
evening hours look fairly benign for much of the CWA (aside from
some isolated light showers possible, mainly southern half), after
midnight is when the precipitation could begin to pick up over
southeast MO, especially the Ozark foothills. PoPs will ramp up
accordingly.

The Tuesday into Tuesday night time frame is still looking the
wettest area wide, as a strong upper level trough pushing eastward
into the Plains states, gives Cristobal a good shove northeastward.
The open wave pivots northeast across the area Tuesday and the main
upper trough moves through Tuesday night. A lot will be happening
during this phasing process and there may well be two different
rounds of precipitation as this happens. There continues to be
timing differences when it comes to ending precipitation chances.
Precipitation could linger into Wednesday for some areas, especially
east of the Mississippi River. Details will be worked out over time.
Highs on Tuesday will remain warm, but a slight cooldown is expected
for Wednesday through the rest of the week, with highs in the low
80s.

There may end up being a fairly wide range of precipitation totals
from west to east across the area with the higher amount west,
tapering off eastward. Highest totals on the western end of the CWA
is looking like 1-2 inches. Stay tuned for updates as we narrow down
the exact impacts of Cristobal.

The other item of concern will be the winds. Bufkit soundings are
now indicating much stronger winds than it did yesterday for
Tuesday. Once again the inherited NBM grids are too low so
adjusted upwards, but can see them being adjusted higher with
time, as confidence increases on how high we might be able to mix
up to on Tuesday. Gusts at least 30-40 mph look possible.

It is looking fairly dry for Wednesday night into Thursday so PoPs
will be minimal.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1159 PM CDT Thu Jun 4 2020

Main concern to aviation is low clouds and/or fog late tonight and
early Friday. The consensus of guidance points to KPAH as having
the best chance of dense fog, so went with LIFR fog there.
Elsewhere went with IFR levels, with a mix of fog and IFR ceilings
at KEVV and KOWB. Expect the fog to clear by 14Z, and a nice cu
field to develop by midday. Cannot rule out some isolated heat of
the day or evening convection, but the chance is too low to
mention at any site in this forecast period.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...CW
AVIATION...DRS