973
FXUS63 KPAH 141106
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
606 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Daily shower and storm chances continue this weekend through much
  of next week.

- Humidity levels will remain high through the period and
  temperatures will creep into the upper 80s by mid next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 151 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

The 500mb pattern this weekend into early next week will feature two
areas of upper ridging, one across the Southwest U.S. and the other
off the southeast U.S. coast. In between, weak troughing will remain
in place across the OH/TN valleys. The initial open wave lifting
across our area today will become centered east of us Sunday and
Monday. Meanwhile, additional weak ripples in the flow meander
across our cwa from Sunday night through Tuesday. The end result
will be daily chances for scattered showers and storms. Coverage
looks to be highest today, and then a relative lull may end up
occurring on Sunday and possibly Monday too. The initial wave may
linger enough to produce some isolated convection across the KY
Pennyrile or SW IN on Sunday, and then the secondary disturbance may
touch off some late day convection or overnight activity across
southeast MO. Models differ some on timing, but generally agree on
another uptick in convective coverage at some point Monday into
Tuesday.

Precipitable water values between 1.8 and 2" will lead to some
efficient rainfall rates. CAMs aren`t as robust with totals for
today as they were yesterday, but localized swaths of 1-2" are still
likely. The flash flooding threat is lower today, but the risk is
still there underneath some of the heavier activity. This may be the
case again early next week. Shear will be much weaker today so it
should be quite difficult to get organized convection capable of
producing strong to severe storms.

A more potent shortwave trough moves across the central U.S. on
Wednesday and drags a cold front down towards our region. Wind
fields may increase enough (0-6km shear pushing 30 kts) to give us
some potential for strong to severe storms late Wednesday or
possibly lingering into Thursday. However, as it looks now the
highest severe threat likely remains north of our area. Big question
is will the front actually sweep through the entire area and give us
a brief reprieve from the 70 degree dewpoints or will it essentially
wash out and leave the soupy airmass in place. Either way any relief
appears to be very short lived late in the week.

Temperatures will be suppressed today and possibly into the early
part of the week due to a good amount of clouds and convection. But
then it looks to warm up further into the upper 80s or possibly
pushing 90 by mid week. Long range signals continue to indicate a
strengthening 594+ dm ridge across the mid-Mississippi/Ohio Valley
areas next weekend into early the following week (June 21-24), which
would give us our first heat wave of the season with temps reaching
the 90s along with higher humidity (dewpoints in low or mid 70s).
That would likely yield heat index readings pushing 100 or higher.
Many areas have yet to reach 90 this season, including Paducah. The
latest first 90 on record for Paducah is June 24, 2003. The building
ridge would likely squash convective chances and leave us dry for
several days at least.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 600 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

Cigs currently in the IFR/low MVFR range will gradually become
VFR in most areas by early afternoon. Scattered to numerous SHRA
will push across the region through the day, winding down in
the evening. Some TSRA expected, with best chances during the
afternoon. Southwest winds switch around to northwest through
the day and become light tonight. Guidance is hinting at a
return of lower cigs in the MVFR, or possibly IFR range after
06z tonight. There is also a signal for some fog formation.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...SP
AVIATION...SP