296
FXUS63 KPAH 052359
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
559 PM CST Fri Dec 5 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Below normal temperatures will continue thru the week`s end
  and carry over into next week.

- Small precipitation chances exist late this weekend and again
  by the middle to end of next week, but amounts and impacts
  look to remain negligible.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1234 PM CST Fri Dec 5 2025

Tonight...

Quiet weather ongoing as we enter the first part of the weekend
under the influence of surface high pressure. Cold temperatures
continue tonight with lows in the mid to upper 20s. Could see
some fog development across south central KY toward dawn on
Sunday where mid and upper sky cover has less coverage and is
slower to arrive. This area will also see light overall surface
winds, so radiational cooling will be a bit better. Won`t hit
this too hard just yet, but something to monitor as we go
through the PM hours.

Saturday - Sunday Night...

Saturday brings slightly milder conditions with highs mostly in
the low to mid 40s under variable cloudiness. Dry conditions
persist Saturday into Saturday evening before our next
precipitation chance arrives early Sunday morning. A fast moving
clipper system will quickly move into the mid Mississippi River
Valley by early Sunday, with some light warm advection /
overrunning precipitation through the morning hours.
Temperatures do look to be marginal for some brief freezing rain
potential, mainly along and north of the I-64 corridor, however
given the short window and very light overall QPF, not
expecting this to have impacts. In a lot of cases, warm
advection ahead of a weak clipper usually wins out. Any
lingering light precipitation through the rest of Sunday should
be liquid with small diurnal ranges peaking in the 40s. Then, a
trailing cold front sweeps through by Sunday night as the
clipper departs the area. This reinforcing shot of cold air
allows temps to drop into the upper teens and low 20s by Monday
morning, along with a few lingering flurries or very light snow
overnight.

Monday - Tuesday...

Cold and dry high pressure take hold again through the early
week time frame with temps barely making it to freezing on
Monday. The pressure gradient tightens over the area by Tuesday
between retreating surface high pressure off the SE CONUS, and
a stronger upstream clipper approaching. Milder temps for
Tuesday with highs in the mid to upper 40s thanks to steady, to
occasionally gusty, SW winds.

Tuesday Night - Friday...

A stronger clipper passes through the Great Lakes region Tuesday
night through Wednesday, with the southern fringes of the
precipitation shield possibly skirting our NE CWA. Another
situation where QPF looks light and temperatures will be
warming. Keeping a dry forecast for now, and even if there were
some brief precipitation, it would likely be liquid. Another
reinforcing shot of cold air arrives for late week. Could see
some light wintry mixes with any lingering low level moisture
Wednesday through Thursday night, but overall confidence lowers
by this time frame.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 536 PM CST Fri Dec 5 2025

Starting off the period with VFR conditions and mostly clear
skies across the region. Time-heights and model soundings
suggest low level moisture moves back into the region late
tonight continuing into the morning hours with MVFR to
potentially IFR cigs. Confidence on IFR conditions is still
low. Some sites may also see fog although confidence on this is
still low given the increased low stratus that develops.
Conditions are expected to improve by 15-18z at CGI/PAH/MVN and
by 21z at EVV/OWB. Winds are expected to be light through the
period.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...WFO LMK
AVIATION...AD