845
FXUS61 KPHI 030516
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
116 AM EDT Wed Jun 3 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
The Aviation section was updated for the 06Z TAFs.

No significant changes otherwise.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1. High pressure keeps the area dry through the end of the
week.

2. Late this weekend into early next week, a trough will bring
cooler weather and a chance for rain.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...High pressure keeps the area dry through the
end of the week.

High pressure over the Great Lakes will gradually build east
and will be over the Appalachians late tonight. Low pressure
will develop off the Mid-Atlantic coast and will track out to
sea tonight. However, high pressure will keep that low well
offshore. Mostly sunny and warm today with highs in the low to
mid 80s with the warmest temperatures along the I-95 corridor
and the coolest temperatures, generally in the low 70s, along
the coasts due to the influence of the colder ocean waters.
Afternoon sea breezes will develop, and onshore flow behind the
sea breeze will result in locally cooler temperatures.

Mostly clear and mild tonight with lows in the 50s.

High pressure is expected to remain in control across the
region keeping this surface low well offshore. As a result, the
forecast continues to remain dry through the end of the week.
The pleasant weather will continue through most of Saturday with
a slight chance for a shower or thunderstorm Saturday afternoon
and evening mainly for the Poconos.

A gradual warming trend will also take place this week with
temperatures reaching near or into the low 90s for both Friday
and Saturday. Shore areas and the southern Poconos are expected
to be cooler with highs in the 80s.


KEY MESSAGE 2... Late this weekend into early next week, a
trough will bring cooler weather and a chance for rain.

After the period of dry and tranquil conditions, a positively
tilted upper-level trough digs in from the northwest Sunday into
the beginning of next week. Our surface high pressure system
weakens and moves offshore over the weekend. When the trough
moves in, a surface low pressure system should develop in
response. There are differences between the deterministic
guidance as to if this will be a closed surface low or a trough,
but regardless, the net effect appears to be a cooling trend,
especially going into Monday as a cold front sinks southward.

On the precipitation side of things, showers become possible
Saturday night with perhaps a thunderstorm. The bulk of the
precipitation is on Sunday with scattered showers developing
along with some thunderstorms as our cold front moves south.
Depending on the timing and how the atmospheric conditions
evolve, the potential for an isolated stronger to severe
thunderstorm may be possible. The exact extent of the
precipitation and timing is a bit more uncertain given the
variations among deterministic guidance on how the surface
pattern takes shape. Beyond Sunday, a few showers may linger
into Monday with the cold front remaining close to the area.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Early this morning...VFR. LGT/VRB winds. High confidence.

Today...VFR/SKC. N-NE winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to around 10
kt with occasional gusts up to 20 kt around midday, diminishing
late. E-SE winds behind afternoon sea breezes at KMIV/KACY, but
the sea breezes may make it to KTTN/KPNE/KPHL/KILG prior to
00Z. High confidence.

Tonight...VFR/SKC. LGT/VRB winds. High confidence.

Outlook...

Thursday through Saturday...VFR. No significant weather.

Saturday night through Sunday...Sub-VFR possible due to showers
and thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure builds into the waters.

North winds 5 to 10 kt in the morning will turn east, then
southeast 10 to 15 kt behind afternoon sea breezes. South winds
5 to 10 kt tonight, becoming west around 5 kt late. Seas 2 to 3
feet.

Outlook...

Thursday through Friday...Sub-SCA conditions probable.

Saturday through Sunday... SCA conditions possible Saturday
night into Sunday with a southwest wind 15-20 kt with gusts to
25 kt and seas of 4-5 feet.


Rip Currents...

Today, north winds 5 to 10 mph in the morning will turn to the
east, then southeast late in the day behind sea breezes.
Breaking waves will be 2 to 3 feet. There will be a lessening
easterly swell with a 9 to 10 second period. As a result, there
is a LOW risk for the development of dangerous and life
threatening rip currents for the Jersey Shore for Monmouth
county, Ocean county, and Atlantic county, and a MODERATE risk
for the Jersey Shore for Cape May county and Delaware Beaches.

On Thursday, winds will turn southerly and seas/swells will
continue to lessen. Thus, there is a LOW risk of rip currents
for the New Jersey Shore and Delaware Beaches.

Ocean water temperatures are in the 50s to low 60s. These
chilly water temperatures can quickly cause hypothermia and
physical incapacitation to anyone suddenly immersed in the
water.

For specific beach forecasts, visit weather.gov/beach/phi

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Guzzo/MPS
AVIATION...Guzzo/MPS
MARINE...Guzzo/MPS