570
FXUS61 KPHI 302313
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
613 PM EST Fri Jan 30 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Small Craft Advisory and Freezing Spray Advisory expired at 6 PM
for the northern to central New Jersey Atlantic coastal waters.

Cold Weather Advisories in place for the entire area have been
extended through Sunday morning.

For the weekend storm, snow amounts have trended down further.
At this time any accumulating snow looks to be confined to right
along the NJ coast extending south and westward into Sussex
County Delaware.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1. Dangerous (and potentially record-setting) cold continues
through the weekend with highs well below freezing and overnight
lows in the single digits and below zero, resulting in very
cold wind chills.

2. A rapidly deepening storm will develop off the East Coast
this weekend. The storm is expected to track far enough east to
spare most of the area significant impacts but the coast will
still be impacted by strong winds, coastal flooding, and
potentially a little snow.

3. Below freezing temperatures are expected to persist across
parts of the area right through next week.

4. A low pressure system passing to the south of the region
could bring an additional round of snow to portions of our
region around the middle of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1....Dangerous (and potentially record-setting)
cold continues through the weekend with highs well below
freezing and overnight lows in the single digits and below zero,
resulting in very cold wind chills.

Weak area of high pressure remains in control through tonight.
With high pressure close by, winds should continue to diminish
tonight and generally remain less than 5-10 mph, becoming light
and variable at times. Aside for some high clouds filtering
north, skies will be mostly clear, so anticipate much of the
area to radiate very well especially with deep snow pack still
in place. As a result, low temps should be the coldest of the
week ranging from -5 to 10 degrees. With light winds, wind
chills should not be far removed from the actual air temperature
give or take a few degrees.

With the coastal storm developing to our south on Saturday
before lifting off to our north and east on Sunday, this should
be at least the beginning of some temperature moderation. High
temperatures will mainly be in the teens and 20s under mostly
cloudy skies through the weekend. Lows will mainly be in the
single digits and teens. However, with a strengthening
background wind field with the coastal storm nearby through the
weekend, wind chills are expected to be well below zero once
again for at least Saturday night. For this reason, have opted
to extend the Cold Weather Advisories for the entire area
through Sunday morning. Possible further extensions into Sunday
night may be needed, but will be evaluated at a future time.

KEY MESSAGE 2....A rapidly deepening storm will develop off the
East Coast this weekend. The storm is expected to track far
enough east to spare most of the area significant impacts but
the coast will still be impacted by strong winds, coastal
flooding, and potentially a little snow.

With the latest model guidance, there was a further shift
slightly farther S/E with the storm system and the N/W edge of
the precipitation shield. This has brought snowfall amounts down
a little more with this latest forecast update. The other
impacts we`re actually more concerned about at this point
(compared to snow) are high winds and coastal flooding.

The strongest winds on land are expected very early Sunday
morning through Sunday evening. This is mostly consistent with
when the strongest cyclogenesis is expected to occur (and thus,
there will be a stronger isallobaric component to the wind). For
the higher terrain of the Poconos and along coastal areas, peak
wind gusts could still reach 40kt/48 mph though generally
speaking gusts should mainly be in the 35 to 45 mph for these
areas. So the confidence is still not quite there to issue a
Wind Advisory at this point. Regardless of if we actually get to
wind advisory criteria, there is a potential for a higher level
of impacts in areas where snow and ice may still remain on
trees and wires. Inland areas outside of the Poconos should
generally see wind gusts in the 25 to 35 mph range.

With coastal/tidal flooding, minor tidal flooding is expected
with the Sunday morning high tide cycle from Barnegat Bay
southward in New Jersey and Atlantic coastal Delaware. Minor
flooding may continue near the times of high tide through
Monday, however the highest water levels and greatest impacts
are anticipated to occur during the Sunday morning high tide. As
has been mentioned, the wind direction being parallel and then
switching to mostly off shore will help limit coastal/tidal
flooding impacts. However, it will be working against higher
astronomical tides with the full moon on Monday, and increased
swells from the off shore system. Further complicating the
impacts of tidal flooding impacts is ice that is already
developing on bays could be pushed onshore during high tide, and
flood waters could freeze on roadways. A Coastal Flood Advisory
has been issued for the highest confidence areas to receive
impacts during the Sunday morning high tide, but this advisory
could be expanded in area or extended in time if confidence
increases in impacts from subsequent high tides.

As for snow, any accumulation that occurs now looks to be
confined to areas right along the NJ coast extending south and
west into Sussex County Delaware. Generally speaking, even here
any amounts should be under an inch at this point with the
exception being southeastern portions of Sussex County Delaware
where an inch or two is still possible. Chances for measurable
snow near the I-95 corridor and points north and west have now
dropped to less than 10 percent. So this is really not expected
to be much of an event snowfall wise at this point. The only
thing to note though is that for areas that do get a bit of
snow, the potential for strong winds concurrent or just after
the snow has fallen could lead to more significant impacts due
to blowing snow (especially in southern Delaware). The timing of
any snow remains unchanged with any snow generally expected
Saturday night through Sunday morning, though some initial snow
could come in as early as Saturday afternoon. Finally, we`ll
continue to note that the gradient in snowfall on the N/W edge
of this system will be sharp and there could still be some
wiggles in the expected storm track. This could bring back snow
amounts a bit higher or result in a complete miss snowfall wise
for anyone in our area. This all said, it is very unlikely at
this point that any changes will be enough to result in the I-95
corridor and points N/W getting any accumulating snow.


KEY MESSAGE 3...Below freezing temperatures are expected to
persist across parts of the area right through next week.

While the broader, longwave, mid and upper level trough may
shift slightly further east in the wake of the coastal low, our
region will remain under a general northwest flow regime to
start the new week. As such, the cold pattern continues. Areas
such as the coastal plain of NJ and much of Delmarva are likely
to get above freezing Tuesday and again Wednesday, while most of
the rest of the region is forecast to stay below freezing. This
current stretch of below freezing temperatures began last
weekend (Jan 23 through 26 - varies depending on the site),
which means if areas don`t get above freezing Tuesday or
Wednesday, this stretch of below freezing temperatures is on
track to be at least 2 weeks long. The longer this stretch
continues, there will be an increasing risk for more impacts to
infrastructure including frozen pipes and widespread ice on
waterways. This would be a top five longest stretch of below
freezing temperatures for many of our climate sites.


KEY MESSAGE 4....A low pressure system passing to the south of
the region could bring an additional round of snow to portions
of our region around the middle of next week.

Some models are depicting a low developing in response to a lee
side trough over E NM/TX panhandle and then progressing east
across the southeastern portion of the U.S. and eventually off
shore through early to mid next week. As has been the case with
the last several events, the exact track of the low will have
implications on if our region will see snow with this system and
how cold the late week period will be. The farther south this
low tracks, the less likely our region will see snow, but the
more likely we will have very cold conditions Thursday and
Friday. A blend of guidance is a reasonable middle of the road
solution this far out, with a broad 20 to 40% chance for
precipitation across the area around about next Wednesday, and
temperatures about 5 to 10 degrees below normal (still cold, but
not as cold as today).

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas...

Tonight...VFR. West-northwest winds 5-10 knots, becoming locally
light and variable at times. High confidence.

Saturday...VFR, however with increasing and lowering clouds.
Northerly winds increasing to around 10 knots. High confidence.

Outlook...

Saturday night through Sunday...ACY and MIV may go to IFR in
light snow Saturday evening into Sunday morning. VFR north of
these sites for remaining TAF sites. Northerly winds gusting 25
to 35 knots.

Monday and Tuesday...VFR.

Wednesday...Sub VFR conditions possible as the next low
pressure system tracks by to our south and potentially brings
the area some snow.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 6 PM, the Small Craft Advisory and Freezing Spray
Advisory for the coastal waters from Sandy Hook to Manasquan
Inlet was allowed to expire. A Small Craft Advisory begins at 2
PM Saturday for the coastal waters from Manasquan Inlet to
Fenwick Island. No marine hazards are in effect through Saturday
for the Delaware Bay.

Northwest winds will diminish this evening, then increase again
by mid-late Saturday afternoon. Winds may gust up to 25-30 knots
on the southern coastal waters during this time with seas of
2-4 feet.

Times of light freezing spray on the offshore waters through
Saturday.

Outlook...

Saturday Night into Sunday...through the late Saturday Night
into Sunday Morning period is when we are expecting the
strongest winds and highest seas with the coastal storm. There
is still the potential for storm force wind gusts for areas from
Manasquan Inlet NJ through Fenwick Island DE, so we have a
Storm Watch for these zones. The highest gusts are likely to be
farther away from the coast (in the 10-20 nm area off the
coast), so areas right along the coast are less likely to see
storm force gusts. A Gale Watch remains in effect for the
Delaware Bay and the coastal waters from Manasquan Inlet to
Sandy Hook NJ. With as strong as the winds are likely to be, and
significant wave heights near 10 ft in some areas, freezing
spray will become an even bigger concern during the height of
the storm. Thus, there is a heavy freezing spray watch for the
same area as the storm watch.

Sunday night through Monday...winds and seas are expected to
diminish, but SCA conditions are likely to persist into Monday.

Tuesday...winds and seas are expected to be below SCA criteria.
However, with wind gusts 15 to 20 kt possible, light freezing
spray may remain a concern through this period.

Wednesday...Sub SCA with winds expected to further diminish
compared to Tuesday.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Potentially record-breaking cold is expected as we end this
week, with a chance for some of our climate sites to set record
low temperatures and/or record cold high temperatures.

Record Low Temperatures and Record Low High Temperatures for:

January 30

Site    Low/Year       Low Max Temperature/Year
ABE       -5/1928             14/1934
ACY       -3/2014             19/1965
PHL        7/2019             18/1965
ILG        3/2014             16/1934
RDG       -1/2014              9/2013
TTN        4/2014             12/1873
MPO      -15/1965              7/1934
GED       -5/2014             24/2010
55N        8/1935             18/1934


January 31

Site    Low/Year       Low Max Temperature/Year
ABE       -9/1948             14/2019
ACY        0/1948             20/2019
PHL        3/1948             18/2019
ILG        3/1948             19/2019
RDG       -5/2019             14/2019
TTN       -1/1920             16/2019
MPO      -15/1908              4/2019
GED        1/1948             23/2019
55N        4/1948             19/2019

Not all records will be challenged or broken, but some
could fall over the coming days and nights.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST Sunday for PAZ054-055-
     060>062-070-071-101>106.
NJ...Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST Sunday for NJZ001-
     007>010-012>027.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 5 AM to noon EST Sunday for NJZ020-
     022>027.
DE...Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST Sunday for DEZ001>004.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 5 AM to noon EST Sunday for DEZ003-
     004.
MD...Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST Sunday for MDZ012-015-
     019-020.
MARINE...Gale Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday evening for
     ANZ430-431-450.
     Storm Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday evening for
     ANZ451>455.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Watch from late Saturday night through
     Sunday evening for ANZ451>455.
     Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM to 6 PM EST Saturday for
     ANZ452>455.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DeSilva/Fitzsimmons/Johnson/Staarmann
AVIATION...DeSilva/Fitzsimmons/Gorse/Johnson
MARINE...DeSilva/Fitzsimmons/Gorse/Johnson