751
FXUS65 KPSR 040529
AFDPSR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
1029 PM MST Tue Nov 3 2026

.UPDATE...Updated 06Z Aviation Discussion.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Flooding of several area streams and rivers continues to
  subside, while major waterways like the Salt River and Gila
  River will likely continue to experience flooding through the
  week due to dam releases.

- Dry weather with seasonable temperatures will continue the next
  several days with lower desert highs warming into upper 70s to
  middle 80s by the end of the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

A considerable volume of water continues to flow downhill through
many of the major waterways in south-central AZ early this
afternoon, especially in the Salt and Verde systems. Salt River
Project releases from the Bartlett Dam into the Verde River and
Granite Reef Dam into the Salt River, remain very high, over 30000
cfs and over 55000 cfs respectively. Streamflow gauges were also
reading between 20000-50000 cfs downstream from Tempe Town Lake
heading into the Gila River. The last time there were major
releases this high was in the Spring of 2023 and the Granite Reef
Dam releases peaked at just under 40000 cfs and the runoff lasted
for 2-3 months before fully emptying into the Colorado River near
Yuma. That event in 2023 involved snow melt. So, there was a more
prolonged runoff, but this event has a larger volume of water, in
a much shorter time frame. Water levels and flow of this magnitude
will continue to impact several low water crossings and any
settlements, structures, and camps immediately near the banks.
Very strong currents will also be very dangerous and deadly. There
have been multiple fatalities by people recreating in the Salt
and Verde with past events. So, it is strongly encouraged to avoid
entering the water and please obey any closures. Also, be
prepared for significant flood water continuing through the Gila
River to Painted Rock Dam in Maricopa County. From there it may
take a few days before water is released from Painted Rock into
the lower Gila in Yuma County.

Outside of flooding along the rivers across south-centerl AZ over
the next several days, weather is expected to be calm and dry.
Afternoon high temperatures across the lower deserts will continue
to be in the upper 70s, to locally high, near 80, in SE CA through
most of the week. These temperatures are due to a low pressure
system, currently just on the coastline of Northern CA, that is
expected to push inland and traverse across NV, and into the Four
Corners area before exiting the region into the Plain states as
early as Thursday afternoon. While the low is not directly
over the lower deserts, H5 heights will be suppressed with the
low passing to the north with height anomalies expected to be
near normal for early November by mid week.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

The long term forecast remains dry and seasonal. Ensemble guidance
continues to show a dry positively-tilted trough dropping through
the area at the end of the week, ahead of a strong ridge spreading
into much of the west. Guidance also shows a cutoff low forming
south of the ridge over the eastern Pacific, west of the Baja
Peninsula. From here the models diverge a bit. A majority of the
GEFS members bring the cutoff low up into the Desert Southwest,
drawing some moisture up with it. However, the rest of the global
ensemble guidance leans toward a much weaker cutoff low, with the
Desert Southwest remaining dominated by ridging. Latest NBM PoPs
through the long term forecast remain under 5% across the local
area. Temperatures late-week through this weekend should warm a
few degrees, back to around normal as the ridge builds over the
West. Lower desert highs are forecast to be in the upper 70s to
lower 80s. Breezy northerly winds are likely to develop heading
into the end of this week and weekend as surface high pressure
builds over the Great Basin and Rockies, below the upper level
ridge, but wind magnitudes do not look to reach advisory level.

&&

.AVIATION...Updated at 0530Z.

South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT; and
Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:

No major aviation weather concerns are expected through the TAF
period under FEW-SCT passing high clouds. For the Phoenix Metro,
easterly winds will develop during the overnight hours and then go
back westerly tomorrow afternoon.  Across SE CA, winds at KIPL
will favor a W/NW component, while directions favor the NW at
KBLH. Wind speeds will be aob 7 kt at all terminals with extended
periods of variability to at time calm conditions expected.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Dry seasonal conditions can be expected through the next 7 days,
with lingering flooding in major waterways like the Salt and Gila
Rivers. Saturated grounds will help keep surface humidity levels
somewhat elevated. Afternoon minimum RHs today will be around
40-50% across AZ and 20-30% across southeast CA. Despite gradual
drying through the week, the minimum RHs will only fall to around
30-40% across AZ and 17-25% across southeast CA by the end of the
week. Overnight recoveries will remain good through the week, with
around 60-80% max RHs most nights. Winds through the next 7 days
will mostly follow typical diurnal trends with light speeds and
modest afternoon upslope gusts. Breezier north to northeast winds
are anticipated late week into this weekend with gusts up to 20-30
mph forecast at this time.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Benedict/Ryan
LONG TERM...Benedict
AVIATION...Berislavich
FIRE WEATHER...Benedict/Ryan