972
FXUS65 KPUB 272332
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
532 PM MDT Fri Jun 27 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Saturday will be hot and generally dry, then a cold front
  Sunday will bring increased chances for showers,
  thunderstorms, and cooler than normal temperatures into
  midweek.

- Daily afternoon showers and storms continue, mainly over the
  eastern mountains, Palmer Divide, and Raton Mesa.

- Monsoon moisture tap for the higher terrain setting up for
  next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 202 PM MDT Fri Jun 27 2025

Currently...High pressure across the region has produced
another hot and relatively dry day for southeast and south
central CO, though isolated showers and thunderstorms have
developed across the Pikes Peak region and along the Raton Mesa.
Temps as of 1 PM have warmed into the 70s to around 80F for the
high valleys, and mid 80s to mid 90s for the eastern plains.

Tonight...Isolated convection across the eastern mts and along
the I- 25 Corridor this afternoon will likely struggle once it
moves out across the plains, with the main threats being gusty
outflow winds as high as 45 mph and some cloud to ground
lightning. Storms are expected to be most prevalent along the E
mts, Palmer Divide and Raton Mesa, but if storms can make it to
the eastern border then they could briefly become stronger since
the highest CAPE is found there. Bulk shear is fairly weak, and
SPC guidance just paints the area with General thunder so
confidence is low for strong to severe storm potential. Expect
clearing skies late, with overnight low temps in the 40s to
around 50F for the high valleys, and 50s to around 60F for the
plains.

Tomorrow...Another hot and essentially ry day on tap for the
area tomorrow as many locations across the eastern plains
nearing 100F. Models indicate that though there will again be
another round of isolated shower and thunderstorm activity
through the afternoon, mainly tied to the eastern mts, Palmer
Divide and Raton Mesa, it will likely be even more sparse than
activity today. Main threats will again be gusty outflow winds
and cloud to ground lightning. Prepare on max temps in the 80s
for the high valleys, and 90s to near 100F for the plains. Moore

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 320 AM MDT Fri Jun 27 2025

Saturday Night through Monday...

Any lingering showers and storms look to die off quickly after
sunset on Saturday, leaving clear and dry conditions for the rest of
the overnight hours. Overnight low temperatures will be just a
couple of degrees warmer than normal, falling down into the upper
50s and low 60s. Mountain valleys look to cool into the 40s. Models
continue to show a warmer than normal day for most of Sunday,
before a cold front arrives sometime Sunday afternoon/evening.
Highs look to climb into the 90s on the plains before the front
arrives, though this could change if the front arrives earlier
than currently expected. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are
likely over the high country early in the afternoon, spreading
east onto the plains throughout the afternoon and evening hours.
Monday will likely be an interesting day. We`ll have easterly
to southeasterly winds on the plains and much cooler
temperatures in our post frontal airmass. Despite the potential
for moderate instability though (if the upslope doesn`t sock us
in with cloud cover), storms will likely have to overcome a cap
due to ridging building in from our west and warmer temperatures
aloft. Depending on how much clearing we see Monday, there
could be a potential for strong to severe storms that day. High
temperatures will also be very dependent on the amount of
clearing we see, but are currently expected to run about 5
degrees or so cooler than normal for most locations.

Tuesday Onwards..

The monsoon high looks to try to show itself from around Tuesday
through Thursday at least, though models have backed off slightly on
midweek moisture potential as far as QPF goes. Models show the
high`s interaction with a low coming onshore over southern
California on Thursday resulting in its erosion a bit, but also
resulting in an influx of remnant tropical moisture from a system
off the Baja Peninsula for the Wednesday and Thursday timeframe.
Even though the high looks more degraded and messy through mid-week,
the moisture plume still looks to remain active. Ensemble guidance
still depicts PWAT anomalies in the 150-200% of normal range
straight through this event and right on through the entire first
week of July. If trends hold, expect near normal temperatures and
daily chances for scattered to potentially widespread showers and
thunderstorms across the area, especially over the high country.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 527 PM MDT Fri Jun 27 2025

VFR at all taf sites the next 24 hrs. Sporadic outflow winds
this evening will gradually transition to more typical
downslope/drainage flows toward midnight. Very isolated/weak
convection expected Saturday afternoon, and won`t carry a
shra/tsra mention in any taf. Will have to watch for outflows
from weak/high based showers, which could cause a brief period
of gusty/erratic winds at KCOS and KPUB after 21z.

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...EHR
AVIATION...PETERSEN