641
FXUS65 KPUB 101801
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1101 AM MST Wed Dec 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Continued warmer than normal temperatures are expected today,
  with more light but wind driven snow for the central
  mountains.

- Dry conditions are expected for much of the region through
  early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 223 AM MST Wed Dec 10 2025

Today..

Shocking news..northwest flow looks to persist for yet another day.
We will be slightly cooler today thanks to this mornings cold front,
and it will be far less windy which will be a relief. Daytime highs
look to be around 5 to 10 degrees cooler than yesterday, though that
still puts us about 4 to 6 degrees warmer than normal. Highs in
upper 40s and 50s are expected on the plains, with 40s for mountain
valleys. Winds will still be a bit gusty for our higher peaks,
though much better than yesterday. Gusts to 45 mph can be expected
over the central mountains, mainly for the eastern Sawatch. Light
but wind driven snow looks to continue over the higher peaks of the
central mountains as well. Accumulations will be minimal, and mainly
focused over the northern and western facing slopes of our higher
peaks in Lake County. Overnight lows will be mild once again, as
downsloping looks to resume. Lows in the 40s are looking likely for
our southern plains and for our mountain adjacent plains, with 30s
along and north of Highway 50, and teens for the San Luis Valley.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 223 AM MST Wed Dec 10 2025

Thursday: For Thursday, quiet weather prevails for south central and
southeastern Colorado. Northwest flow will remain in place over the
region, and given the lack of any major forcing, dry conditions are
expected. Otherwise, some breezy conditions are anticipated areawide
with gusts around 20 mph, with pockets of mid to high level clouds
streaming over the region. As for temperatures, a warm December day
is in store for south central and southeastern Colorado, with much
of the region warming to well above seasonal values due to
downsloping winds. Given that, that plains will warm into the mid
60s to low 70s, the valleys into the upper 40s to 50s, and the
mountains into the 30s and 40s.

Thursday Night - Tuesday: For the rest of the long term period,
quiet weather continues, even despite a brief pattern change.
Thursday night through Sunday, northwesterly flow is expected to
persist. Then for Monday and Tuesday, a brief pattern change is
expected as a weak wave pushes over the area. Confidence in this
pattern evolution remains high to very high (80-90%) given continued
strong agreement from model guidance. With all that said, dry
conditions will continue to prevail for most given the lack of
major forcing, even with the wave passage. The exception to this
may be along the central mountains Monday - Tuesday, where
orographic forcing will become strong enough to allow for
isolated snow showers to blossom. Beyond all of that, breezy
conditions will persist, especially along the higher terrain,
with mid to high level clouds also continuing. Looking at
temperatures, a fluctuating stretch of days is anticipated for
the plains through Sunday thanks to a couple of shallow cold
fronts. With that said, the plains will remain above seasonal
values, event despite the cold fronts. Elsewhere, temperatures
are anticipated to remain more steady and above seasonal values.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1053 AM MST Wed Dec 10 2025

At KCOS, patch of IFR stratus slowly shrinking on satellite
loop as of 1730z, with most forecast soundings showing a gradual
weakening of sly low level winds and modest drying by mid-
afternoon. Will keep tempo IFR in the forecast through 19z, then
slow improvement to MVFR 19z-21z, before clouds break and VFR
returns after 21z. Increasing n-nw winds overnight and continued
low level drying will keep conditions VFR from late afternoon
through the night into Thu morning.

At KPUB and KALS, VFR the next 24 hrs. Mainly light winds at
KALS, while at KPUB, e-se upslope will transition to light wly
drainage after 01z, with a low potential for some gusty (20-30
kt) enhanced gap flow w-nw winds after sunrise Thu morning.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EHR
LONG TERM...SIMCOE
AVIATION...PETERSEN