941
FXUS65 KPUB 130446
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1046 PM MDT Sat Sep 12 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mainly dry through mid day Monday with very warm temperatures.

- Significant cool off with much better chance of precip
  Tuesday onward.

- Burn scar flooding threat will be on the increase Tuesday into
  late week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1242 PM MDT Sat Sep 12 2026

For the rest of today, mainly sunny most of plains with partly to
mostly cloudy skies higher terrain. Isolated showers will be
possible over the higher terrain and over northern El Paso county
this afternoon and early evening. Temperatures will be about 4 to 8
degrees cooler today than yesterday.

Tomorrow, temperatures will once again be on the rebound, as 90s
will return to nearly all of the plains, with the hottest weather
(upper 90s) possible over far southeast Colorado. 80s are expected
in the valleys. Showers will mainly remain isolated across the
higher terrain, although we may see a bit of an uptick as compared
to today. We may also see some isolated showers over the plains
along a surface trough that will extend across east Las Animas count
into Prowers county.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1242 PM MDT Sat Sep 12 2026


For tomorrow night, a slug of moisture will move across western
Colorado. This will impact mainly the western slope tomorrow night
and this area will see a good chance of showers and storms. Some of
these showers will push out into the Sangre De Cristo mtns. It
should remain dry over the plains tomorrow night.

For Monday, major weather changes begin to occur. It will likely
remain showers over the divide throughout the entire day. These
showers will then push eastward over the remainder of the mtns and
valleys during the afternoon. Additionally during the afternoon time
period, showers are expected to develop over the plains along a
trough that will continue to be located from roughly the Kim to
south of Lamar region.

BY late Monday afternoon, a rather strong cold front will begin to
enter the area from the north and push across the region during the
evening hours. This front marks the leading edge of cooler air that
will move into the region Monday night. Shower may last over the
plains during the evening hours.

Tuesday, much cooler weather is expected to prevail with mid 70s to
lower 80s over the plains for max temps. Tuesday may be one of those
days that it may be too stable for precip to occur over the plains
during the day, but showers and thunderstorms will be widespread
during the day across the mountains and valleys, with the heaviest
precip likely occuring along the mountains/plains interface as moist
upslope flow combines with the monsoon flow to bring a favorable
pattern for heavy rain. Likewise, the chance for burn scar flooding
over the Aspen Acres burn scar will be on the increase during this
period.

For Tuesday evening, scattered to likely showers and storms are
expected region-wide, with the activity continuing into the late
night hours over the far eastern plains.

Wednesday will be a bit warmer, but scattered to numerous shower and
storms are expected over the region during the afternoon and evening
hours.

Another reinforcing cool front will move into the region Wednesday
night, and this will help continue the chance of showers and storms
over the region into Thursday. Showers are forecast to be less
numerous for Friday. /Hodanish

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1045 PM MDT Sat Sep 12 2026

Little high level cloudiness across the region late tonight, but an
increase in high and mid level cloudiness expected by midday
tomorrow as isolated to scattered convection develops across the
higher terrain. Overall, VFR conditions anticipated across much of
the forecast area over the next 24 hrs, including the three main TAF
sites of KCOS, KPUB and KALS. did include a PROB30 for -TSRA at KALS
tomorrow between 22z and 03z with variable gusts to 25 kts. KCOS and
KPUB should remain storm-free.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...MOORE