668
FXUS65 KPUB 081734
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1034 AM MST Mon Dec 8 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm and breezy conditions are expected for most locations
  today, with light but wind driven snow through the higher
  peaks of the central mountains.

- Strong winds are expected across the higher terrain through
  Tuesday, with wind gusts up to around 60 mph expected.

- Dry and mild temperatures expected through much of the long
  term period.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 232 AM MST Mon Dec 8 2025

Currently..

Northwest flow continues over the region with cool and dry air in
place. Most locations are reporting temperatures in the 20s on the
plains with dew points in the teens. In the high country, temps are
in the teens with dews in the single digits. Winds are mainly
northwesterly. A few mountain passes are gusty this morning, though
gusts are around 30 mph or less.

Today..

Very light snow will be possible this morning over the highest peaks
of the central mountains, especially along northern and western
facing slopes. Accumulations will be light, but gusty winds may lead
to low visibilities at times. Northwest flow aloft continues today,
leading to warmer than normal temperatures on our plains, and breezy
winds for some locations. Daytime highs look to warm into the middle
and upper 30s for mountain valleys, with upper 40s to upper 50s for
our plains. Skies will be mostly clear on the plains, with some
cloud cover possible over the high country. Breezy westerly and
northwesterly winds are likely over the central mountains, with
gusts to 35 mph expected. This will lead to blowing snow through
much of the day, even though new snow will come to an end by
lunchtime or so. Westerly and northwesterly gusts to 25 mph will be
likely over much of the high country today and into this evening.
Overnight lows will be a few degrees warmer than normal thanks to
increased mixing and downsloping winds. Most plains locations look
to stay in the 20s tonight, with single digits above zero for our
mountain valleys.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 232 AM MST Mon Dec 8 2025

Tuesday: For Tuesday, relatively quiet weather is anticipated for
south central and southeastern Colorado, though with windy
conditions for many. Northwesterly flow will be in place over the
region, and given the lack of any major forcing, dry conditions are
expected. The exception to this may be an isolated snow shower or
two along the central mountains where orographic forcing will be
ongoing. Beyond that though, as alluded to, it will be fairly breezy
areawide. Weak mountain wave dynamics are anticipated to be in
place, allowing for strong winds up to around 60 mph to develop
along the leeward side of many of the major mountain ranges,
particularly the Sawatch, Sangre de Cristo, and Rampart Mountains.
While stronger winds will be possible along the mountains,
confidence in that is low (20%) at this time, as model guidance
keeps stronger flow north of the area, and the wind orientation,
northwesterly, doesn`t usually favor intense downslope windstorms.
Outside of that, gusty winds up to 40-50 mph are expected in the
prominent gap flow areas of La Veta Pass and through the Arkansas
River Valley from Fremont County into Pueblo County, with gusts of
20-25 mph elsewhere. Otherwise, mild temperatures and partly cloudy
skies are anticipated for the area. Looking at temperatures, much of
the region will warm to above seasonal values thanks to the
downsloping winds, with 50s to 60s for the plains, 40s for the
valleys, and 30s to 40s for the mountains.

Tuesday Night - Sunday: For the rest of the long term period, quiet
weather prevails for south central and southeastern Colorado.
Northwesterly will remain in place over the region, and given the
lack of major forcing, dry conditions are expected to persist.
Confidence in this pattern is high (80%) given strong agreement
between ensemble model guidance. Like Tuesday though, an isolated
snow shower can`t be ruled out along the central mountains where
orographic forcing will be greatest. Otherwise, breezy conditions
will continue, especially along the mountains, with pockets of mid
to high level clouds expected through this period. As for
temperatures, above seasonal temperatures are anticipated to
continue given downsloping winds. With that said though, there may
be backdoor cold fronts that push across the area during this
timeframe, which would drop temperatures, especially across the
plains.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1026 AM MST Mon Dec 8 2025

VFR at all taf sites the next 24 hrs. At KALS, generally light
winds under 12 kts expected. At KCOS, north winds late this
morning/early this afternoon will diminish and shift to sly
after 21z. Winds then return to nly this evening into Tue
morning. At KPUB, period of ely usplope winds this afternoon,
then w-nw drainage winds redevelop overnight. Gusty w-nw winds
(g20-30 kts) then possible starting early Tue morning and
continuing through the day as enhanced gap flow sets up through
the Arkansas Valley.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EHR
LONG TERM...SIMCOE
AVIATION...PETERSEN