834
FXUS65 KPUB 102134
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
234 PM MST Wed Dec 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Breezy and much warmer along/east of the mountains Thursday.

- Dry conditions are expected for much of the region through
  early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 211 PM MST Wed Dec 10 2025

Windy again this afternoon over the central mountains with a few
gusts to 50 kts over the higher passes from Monarch Pass
northward. On the plains, cooler temps with less wind at many
locations, though gap flow still blowing at Walsenburg (gusting
to 35 kts), and some gusts 20-25 kts over the far southeast
plains. Winds will diminish tonight over the higher terrain,
though some gusty east slope breezes are possible through the
night, as lee surface trough remains along I-25. While a few
mountains/interior valleys will decouple and drop off into the
teens/20s, winds will keep mins along and east of I-25 milder,
mainly 30s/40s. On Thursday, deep mixing under continued
northwest flow aloft will boost maxes well above seasonal
averages, especially along and east of I-25, where 60s and 70s
will be widespread, and even a near 80 degf possible over the
far southeast around Springfield. Records for the 11th are
fairly warm (79f at KPUB, 72f KCOS), and should be just out of
reach as mid-level temps may be not be quite high enough.
Mountains/interior valleys will see less warming than the
plains, though still a 3-7 degf rise is likely as upper ridge
builds slightly and mid level temps warm.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 223 AM MST Wed Dec 10 2025

Thursday: For Thursday, quiet weather prevails for south central and
southeastern Colorado. Northwest flow will remain in place over the
region, and given the lack of any major forcing, dry conditions are
expected. Otherwise, some breezy conditions are anticipated areawide
with gusts around 20 mph, with pockets of mid to high level clouds
streaming over the region. As for temperatures, a warm December day
is in store for south central and southeastern Colorado, with much
of the region warming to well above seasonal values due to
downsloping winds. Given that, that plains will warm into the mid
60s to low 70s, the valleys into the upper 40s to 50s, and the
mountains into the 30s and 40s.

Thursday Night - Tuesday: For the rest of the long term period,
quiet weather continues, even despite a brief pattern change.
Thursday night through Sunday, northwesterly flow is expected to
persist. Then for Monday and Tuesday, a brief pattern change is
expected as a weak wave pushes over the area. Confidence in this
pattern evolution remains high to very high (80-90%) given continued
strong agreement from model guidance. With all that said, dry
conditions will continue to prevail for most given the lack of
major forcing, even with the wave passage. The exception to this
may be along the central mountains Monday - Tuesday, where
orographic forcing will become strong enough to allow for
isolated snow showers to blossom. Beyond all of that, breezy
conditions will persist, especially along the higher terrain,
with mid to high level clouds also continuing. Looking at
temperatures, a fluctuating stretch of days is anticipated for
the plains through Sunday thanks to a couple of shallow cold
fronts. With that said, the plains will remain above seasonal
values, event despite the cold fronts. Elsewhere, temperatures
are anticipated to remain more steady and above seasonal values.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1053 AM MST Wed Dec 10 2025

At KCOS, patch of IFR stratus slowly shrinking on satellite
loop as of 1730z, with most forecast soundings showing a gradual
weakening of sly low level winds and modest drying by mid-
afternoon. Will keep tempo IFR in the forecast through 19z, then
slow improvement to MVFR 19z-21z, before clouds break and VFR
returns after 21z. Increasing n-nw winds overnight and continued
low level drying will keep conditions VFR from late afternoon
through the night into Thu morning.

At KPUB and KALS, VFR the next 24 hrs. Mainly light winds at
KALS, while at KPUB, e-se upslope will transition to light wly
drainage after 01z, with a low potential for some gusty (20-30
kt) enhanced gap flow w-nw winds after sunrise Thu morning.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...SIMCOE
AVIATION...PETERSEN