352
FXUS62 KRAH 280551
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
150 AM EDT Thu Aug 28 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Surface high pressure centered across our region will slip offshore
this afternoon. A weak surface trough will drop south across the
region late tonight and early Friday. A dry cold front will move
south across the mid-Atlantic on Friday night and early Saturday and
then stall across Georgia and South Carolina over the weekend.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 139 PM Wednesday...

Cooler and dry conditions continue this afternoon with temps
hovering in the mid to upper 70s with dew points mixing out into the
upper 40s in many locations. Patchy alto-cu will continue to spread
across central NC through this evening ahead of mid to high level
cloudiness that`s expected early tonight. Overnight lows in the
mid to upper 50s are expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 139 PM Wednesday...

Periods of mid and high level cloudiness will continue on Thursday
as the sfc high pressure shifts offshore. Flow will gradually turn
sswly through Thursday afternoon promoting a bit warmer highs in the
lower to mid 80s. We won`t quite see return moisture just yet, with
dew points mixing out into the lower 50s across the area. Otherwise
expect dry weather through the period with overnight lows in the
upper 50s to around 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 115 AM Thursday...

* The period of below normal temperatures continues.

Aloft, a longwave trough will sit over the eastern US, with a series
of embedded s/w disturbances moving through it, tracking across the
region through the period. At the surface, high pressure over the OH
Valley on Sat will track ewd across the mid-Atlantic and into the
Northeast US through Mon night/Tue, possibly ridging swd into the
area by Mon. Meanwhile, while model timing and strength varies, an
area of low pressure may develop/track ewd along the nrn Gulf/Gulf
Coast, then continue across FL before lifting newd off the East
Coast through the middle of the week. While the forecast remains
mostly dry, cannot rule out some showers with the passing s/w
disturbances aloft and possibly with the low off the coast depending
how close it gets. The GFS is largely dry, with the exception of
Sun, but the EC is a bit wetter. Highest chances for showers is Sun
aft/eve. As for temperatures, Sat will be the warmest day, with
highs ranging from upper 70s to mid 80s and lows ranging from upper
50s north to mid 60s south. Temperatures should remain below normal
through mid-week, with the coolest period Mon through Tue night.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 150 AM Thursday...

VFR conditions and fair weather will prevail across central NC
during the 24 hour TAF period as a couple of weak weather systems
bring periods and patches of mainly mid and high clouds. Mid and
high level moisture enhanced by a pair of upper air disturbance will
spread widespread high cirrus clouds across the region for this
morning and early afternoon followed by some clearing late this
afternoon and evening with another area of high clouds late tonight.
A couple of intervals of mid clouds are possible this afternoon and
evening. With any CIGs at or above 6kft, VFR conditions are
expected.

Very light to calm winds this morning will become light northeast to
southeasterly this morning at less than 5kts. Winds will become
light south to southwest at 4 to 7kts this afternoon and then light
and variable at less than 5 kts tonight.

Looking beyond 06Z Friday: Generally fair weather and VFR conditions
are expected through late Saturday. The stalled front to our south
may nudge north with a possible surface wave developing on the front
on Sunday. This will result in an increase in moisture and a small
chance of rain and perhaps some sub-VFR ceilings during Sunday
afternoon and evening, mainly across the south and southeast.
Otherwise, fair weather is expected into early next week. -Blaes

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Blaes
NEAR TERM...Luchetti
SHORT TERM...Luchetti
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...Blaes