792
FXUS62 KRAH 080644
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
243 AM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak high pressure will settle over the region today,
then drift offshore and weaken early Sunday. A passing disturbance
and approaching cold front will cross the region late Sunday
and Sunday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 235 AM Saturday...

Sunny and dry today.

Weak high pressure will be over the region today. This will bring
sunny skies, light and variable winds, and temperatures in the mid
80s to around 90. Relative humidity values will be low making
conditions feel more comfortable. There will be some increase in
high cloudiness tonight as an upper disturbance approaches from TN
late. Lows will be a bit milder than Friday night. Expect lows
tonight in the lower to mid 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 243 AM Saturday...

Hotter with isolated thunderstorms possible, especially over
southern NC.


It appears that central NC will remain mostly dry and hotter on
Sunday. Central NC will be in the general thunderstorm category, but
only isolated thunderstorms are expected. The best chance an
isolated thunderstorm will be in the afternoon and early evening as
an upper level disturbance and pre-frontal trough move over the
region. Highs are expected to be in the upper 80s NW and 90-95 in
the east and south. It is possible that mid level cloudiness
associated with the disturbance aloft is enough to knock
temperatures back a few degrees from this forecast. It appears that
cloudiness will linger into Sunday night as the winds become more
northerly behind the trough. Lows should fall into the 60s (lower
60s north and upper 60s south).

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 204 AM Saturday...

Guidance has been trending drier for the extended, but some
continued uncertainty means we cannot fully rule out chances of
showers/storms in the beginning and latter part of next week.

We will likely start the week with WNW flow at mid-levels, thanks to
a trough extending from the OH valley into the NE US. A The cold
frontal passage from Sun night will settle across the Deep South and
promote lower highs and comfortable humidity levels to start the
work week. Cool high pressure looks to build into the region thru
midweek from the OH valley, favoring highs near to perhaps slightly
below normal in the low to mid 80s Mon/Tue. Some upper 70s are
possible across our northern zones on Tue. Lows should also be
comfortable with mid 50s to low 60s. While the early part of the
week has been trending drier given the aforementioned pattern,
models are still unclear on the track of an embedded shortwave Mon
night/Tue morning. The ECMWF remains strongest and furthest west
than the other guidance, which would favor a better chance of
showers. The pattern is not very supportive overall given a drier
airmass and stable conditions, but have retained low chances of rain
if the strong ECMWF solution verifies.

The latter part of the week would support a slight uptick each day
of the chances of diurnal showers or storms, as well as highs rising
above normal in the upper 80s and lower 90s, with corresponding
increasing humidity levels. Most guidance indicates weak ridging Wed
that transitions to a quasi-zonal flow at mid-levels. At the
surface, a Bermuda high and lee trough setting up would favor a
return to warm southerly flow. Where models disagree is whether a
trough over the Plains to lower MS valley Wed/Thu could interact
with a potential disturbance in the Gulf and increase or storm
chances. Ensemble solutions are mixed on the fetch of southerly flow
from the Gulf and whether any system would stay south or ride up the
SE US late in the week. For now, outside of any influence from any
system, storm chances will remain on the low end, highest on
Thu/Fri.

&&

.AVIATION /006 SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 130 AM Saturday...

24-hour TAF period: VFR conditions will prevail across central NC
through the TAF period.

Outlook: A cold front and upper disturbance could bring some showers
or storms Sunday afternoon into early Monday. Model guidance is
trending towards mostly dry VFR conditions Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Badgett
NEAR TERM...Badgett
SHORT TERM...Badgett
LONG TERM...Kren
AVIATION...Badgett