464
FXUS65 KREV 122058
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
158 PM PDT Sun Oct 12 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* An early season storm will bring impactful Sierra snow Monday
  through Tuesday with periods of rain for lower elevations.

* Below average temperatures continue through this week with drier
  weather later in the week.

* Another chance for valley rain and mountain snow may arrive by
  late next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A potent winter-like storm will bring periods of lower elevation
rain and high elevation snow to the region Monday through Tuesday
night. The main low is projected to drop southward near the Pacific
coast on Monday before pushing inland across central CA on Tuesday
and then moving through NV late Tuesday into Wednesday. The higher
resolution guidance is starting to show a more favorable setup for
snow affecting Mono County but less so for the Tahoe basin, with
slightly more offshore track as the low drops south. As a result
we`ll be upgrading the Winter Storm Watch to a warning for Mono
County but go with a Winter Weather Advisory for Tahoe. This upgrade
is in line with the latest Winter Storm Severity Index (WSSI)
showing Minor to Moderate impacts around Tahoe and Moderate to Major
impacts for Mono County from US-395 westward--go to
weather.gov/rev/winter for WSSI and other winter-related weather
details. Sierra travel impacts can be expected as soon as Monday
afternoon, then peaking Monday night into Tuesday.

Prior to this main storm, a weaker wave of moisture brings a short
period of lighter rain to northeast CA/northwest NV with a rain-snow
mix around the Tahoe basin and higher elevations of northeast CA
Monday morning. While the prevailing snow level looks to range from
6500-7000 feet on Monday, a bit of snow may occur down to lake level
at onset as moisture rolls into the pre-existing dry air mass.

For Tuesday-Tuesday night, the eventual inland track of the upper
low center will determine where the greatest impacts will occur.
While Mono County is targeted for potential convective snow bands
Tuesday afternoon/evening to add to their snowfall total, additional
swaths of moisture could spread farther north across eastern
CA/western NV if the low moves close enough. However, if this low
tracks farther south, these areas would see much less in the way of
additional precip after the main Monday night-Tuesday AM round moves
through. The low and its associated precip is expected to depart
from west central NV by late Tuesday night.

From Wednesday into early next weekend, a drier weather pattern
returns with temperatures slowly warming to near mid-October
averages by Friday or Saturday. Another storm is then on the horizon
by late next weekend, although the track shows a wide range of
possibilities from brushing across the OR border to a more direct
hit on the Sierra. MJD

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail through tonight with mainly light winds.
Cloud cover will increase from north to south this evening and
overnight, and increasing FL100 winds will bring areas of turbulence
and possible LLWS late tonight into Monday for the Sierra/Tahoe
terminals.

An early winter-like storm will bring increased chances for rain and
mountain snow at times from Monday through Tuesday night. Light rain
and snow may bring MVFR conditions at times to KTRK/KTVL Monday
morning before the main push of moisture arrives later in the day.
Most of the heavier snow will likely remain above the elevations of
the Sierra/Tahoe area terminals, but minor snow accumulations could
occur especially in the overnight/early morning hours. MJD

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...Winter Weather Advisory from 11 AM Monday to 11 AM PDT Wednesday
     NVZ002.

CA...Winter Weather Advisory from 11 AM Monday to 11 AM PDT Wednesday
     CAZ072.

     Winter Storm Warning from 11 AM Monday to 11 AM PDT Wednesday
     CAZ073.

&&

$$