924
FXUS65 KREV 011942
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
1242 PM PDT Thu Oct 1 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Dry weather prevails through Sunday afternoon with areas of
  smoke this afternoon and evening.

* Weak low pressure system brings a 10% chance of showers for the Sierra
  and northeast CA on Sunday evening into Monday morning.

* Warm and above average temperatures prevail through the
  foreseeable future with a little hiccup early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Fair weather prevails today. Some high clouds will move in later
tonight, but that`s about it for the weather today. Although, smoke
from the Dome Fire will make it to the Sierra and Sierra Front
this afternoon and evening, per the HRRR. Similar conditions are
expected to continue over the next few days with an upper level
ridge dominating the synoptic pattern over the Desert Southwest
through Sunday afternoon. Temperatures will be rising to well
above normal with some isolated areas observing moderate HeatRisk.
Afternoon highs will be in the upper 80s to low 90s by Saturday
in lower valleys and upper 70s to mid-80s for Sierra communities.

A little hiccup appears on Sunday afternoon into Monday morning
with the passage of a weak upper shortwave trough. This system may
bring slightly enhanced westerly winds compared to what we are
seeing today. Shower chances increase up to 10%, mainly over the
Sierra and northeast CA. So a few light rain showers or virga is
possible, but confidence is very low as most ensembles are pretty
dry. Temperatures will drop around 2-5 degrees Monday behind the
associated cold front. So, will still be above normal for October.

Next week, the ridge fully returns keeping dry and warm weather
for the second week of the month. However, we will start seeing
more systems in the PacNW which will help turn the pattern closer
to a zonal flow which will keep the temperatures for valleys in
the mid-80s, and Sierra communities in the mid-70s to around 80
degrees. Winds may increase a bit too, bringing back typical
afternoon gusts.

-HC

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions prevail over the 24 hr period. Winds will be
generally light and VRB, except for terrain-driven afternoon
breezes up to 12 kts between 20-03Z.

-HC

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$