Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV

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FXUS65 KREV 232047

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
147 PM PDT Sun Jun 23 2024


* Hot weather and breezy conditions continue this afternoon and
  early evening.

* There is a 10-30% chance of showers and thunderstorms south of
  Highway 50 on Tuesday. Otherwise, dry and breezy conditions
  linger through most of the week.

* Temperatures slightly cool down on Monday, and again on Thursday
  behind a front, although remaining 5-10 degrees above average.
  Temperatures possibly return to well above average again next



High pressure area continues to affect Nevada, the Sierra and
northeast California this afternoon. Sunny skies and hot
temperatures prevail, although highs will be a couple of degrees
cooler this afternoon compared to yesterday. The upper high
weakens over the next few days as an approaching system from the
Gulf of Alaska moves towards the PacNW.

By Tuesday, the shift of the upper high allows moisture to slip
into the Eastern Sierra, leading to POPs returning to the forecast.
There is a 10-30% chance from multiple global and ensemble models
for showers and thunderstorms south of Hwy-50 from Alpine to Mono
county and into the southern portions of Mineral and Lyon counties
in NV. Thunder activity will be mostly isolated with a 15% chance
or less of occurring in most areas. Although NBM for Mammoth is
showing up to 30% chance of thunder. Chances for storms extend
into Wednesday afternoon with up to 15% in the same general
vicinity. There may be some very light showers on Monday evening
too as the moisture slowly starts to slip in, but the possibility
is less than 5%.

Winds will pick up in intensity on Wednesday and Thursday as the
upper trough passes through the PacNW and into the northern
Rockies. Winds will be from the west on Wednesday, but then veer
to the northwest behind a dry cold front. The dry weather and
stronger winds bring near critical fire weather conditions. More
on this in the fire weather section of the forecast. The coolest
temperatures of the week are expected behind the front on Thursday

Beyond Friday, the forecast becomes more uncertain with model
solutions spreading towards different scenarios. Regardless, the
trend appears to be warmer and drier conditions for next weekend
into early next week.




VFR conditions continue through the period. Skies will be mostly
clear with some light haze. Hot temperatures this afternoon may
lead to density altitude issues. Winds will be generally from the
west and southwest AOB 7 kts overnight and early morning. However,
stronger winds with gusts to 15-25 kts are expected during the
afternoon and evening hours. LLWS and turbulence is likely
overnight across the Sierra and vicinity.




Hot and dry weather continues for the foreseeable future. Breezy
winds this afternoon and evening will lead to periods of near
critical conditions for northeast CA, and northwest NV for up to 6
hrs. Otherwise, conditions slightly improve on Monday with lighter
winds, and a very low chance (~5%) for showers in Mono Co.
However, keep in mind that we are going to be very dry and
generally hot through the week. On Tuesday, conditions will be
similar to Monday, but we introduce more chances for thunderstorms
in areas south of Hwy 50 including Alpine and Mono Co in CA and
Mineral and southern Lyon in NV. Chances for showers are up to 30%
in Mono. Storm chances should be mostly isolated with up to 15%
chance of thunder in the forecast.

Wednesday and Thursday appear to be the days with the highest risk
for fire weather conditions. Dry and windy conditions are likely
after a period of hot temperatures. There is also a slight chance
for storms on Wednesday afternoon for the Eastern Sierra. Anyway,
min RH continues to be below 15% in NV and below 20% in CA. If
the current trend continues, the issuance of Fire Weather Watches
is likely with the next forecast package either tonight or
tomorrow morning for northeast CA and northwest NV.

Beyond Friday, conditions appear to improve with lighter winds
expected areawide. Keep in mind that anyways an elevated risk
persists due to dry and warm weather persisting next weekend and
into next week.



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