627
FXUS61 KRLX 240047
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
847 PM EDT Thu Jul 23 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
00Z Aviation Discussion Update.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Drier weather takes hold across the area. Convective
  complexes possible towards the end of the week into early next
  week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

High pressure across the area will provide drier weather to the
area. A few passing disturbances will trigger isolated showers
Friday, with isolated to scattered convection expected for Saturday
and Sunday as additional disturbances cross the area. At this point,
storms over the weekend are not looking to be severe. Focus then
shifts towards Sunday night into early next week, in which a series
of convective disturbances look to form across the midwest and drop
southeast into our area. These could bring a damaging wind and heavy
rain threat to our region, but overall, the exact details are
uncertain at this point. SPC has an area just to the west of our CWA
already outlooked for day 5 for the potential of severe weather.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Mainly VFR conditions persist through tonight, with the one
exception being the potential for MVFR CIGs/VSBY on the eastern
slopes of the higher terrain with upslope southeast flow,
including at BKW/EKN. In addition, an isolated shower is
possible over the next couple of hours along and west of the
spine of the higher terrain. While VFR is progged to quickly
return at EKN Friday morning (12-13Z), MVFR CIGs could persist
at BKW through much of the afternoon. ISOLD showers and perhaps
a rumble of thunder cannot be ruled out during the day on
Friday, but confidence in location/timing is too low to include
in the TAFs for the time being.

In general, light surface winds are expected throughout the TAF
period. Occasional breezes of 15 kts or so could occur at BKW
late tonight and on Friday.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium at BKW/EKN, high elsewhere.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Areas of MVFR CIGs/VSBY across the
mountains may not materialize later tonight into Friday.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                            FRI 07/24/26
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    M    M    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z SATURDAY...
IFR conditions are possible with thunderstorms late Monday
through Tuesday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...SL
AVIATION...GW