327
FXUS61 KRLX 150525
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
125 AM EDT Tue Jul 15 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Daily chances for mainly diurnally driven showers and
thunderstorms continue through the week as a warm and moist
airmass remains in place.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
As of 924 PM Monday...

Nothing of significant note to change with the forecast.
Convective activity has all but dwindled at this hour with only
a few straggler showers remaining across the lowlands. Valley
fog is expected to manifest in earnest tonight, in the wake of
the heavy dosage of rainfall received this afternoon.

As of 447 PM Monday...

Conveyor belt of showers and thunderstorms will continue into
the evening with heavy rainfall and cloud to ground lightning
being the main threats. PWATs are between 1.7" and 2.1" across
the area, so training showers and thunderstorms will lead to
instances of flash flooding. CAPE values between 2,500 and
3,000 J/Kg, high theta-e presence, and weak shear (less than
10kts) will lead to pulse-oriented thunderstorms with high and
efficient rainfall rates.

Did increase coverage and density of river valley fog tonight as
well due to the rainfall and moisture that will remain trapped
at the surface.

As of 1207 PM Monday...

Warm, humid and unstable continues to be the name of the game in the
near term period. Frontal boundary just to our north should sag a
little farther south today towards the Ohio River vicinity. Showers
and storms, already apparent on radar, will continue throughout the
near term, both from passing weak waves and heating. Very heavy
rainfall can be expected with any storms, with observed PW values
around the 2 inch mark across much of the area. Overall, no
significant severe weather threat is anticipated, however, an
isolated strong to severe storm cannot be completely ruled out, with
a damaging wind threat owing to precip loading. Frontal boundary may
move slightly north on Tuesday, with the continuation of the warm,
humid, unstable conditions, with shower and storm activity ramping
back up in the afternoon hours again.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1207 PM Monday...

Wednesday and Thursday look to remain unsettled across the area. A
low pressure system will move into, and eventually east across the
Great Lakes region during the period, dragging a front closer to the
area towards the end of the period. Multiple shortwaves moving
through the area will trigger showers and storms at times, with
heavy downpours. There is the potential we could hit heat advisory
criteria on Wednesday and Thursday afternoons, but afternoon storm
activity could damper this.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 1207 PM Monday...

Unsettled weather continues in the long term period, with a
continuation of the warm and humid conditions, with showers and
thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 125 PM Monday...

IFR/LIFR ceilings and visibilities are expected for most
terminals as fog continues to develop early this morning.
Flight conditions will then improve to VFR after fog dissipates
shortly after sunrise.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to sprout up
across portions of the area this afternoon, potentially leading
to brief CIG/VIS restrictions in any heavier rain. Activity
should lessen Tuesday night. Some patches of fog could be
possible late in the TAF period, though extent will depend on
how much clearing occurs.

Flow remains calm into the morning, then light and variable
winds are expected through the day. Occasional gusts could
occur in storms this afternoon.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing, location, and intensity of
overnight fog and afternoon showers/storms may vary from
forecast.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                             TUE 07/15/25
UTC 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
EDT 1HRLY       23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    L    M    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    L    L    M    M    M    M    M    L    L    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    L    M    M    M    M    L    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    M    L    L    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    L    M    L    M    M    M    H    H    L    M    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    L    L    H

AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY...
Brief periods of IFR conditions possible under showers and
thunderstorms, mainly during the afternoon and evening hours.
IFR or worse fog is also possible overnight.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SL
NEAR TERM...SL/LTC
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...20