957
FXUS61 KRLX 060938
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
538 AM EDT Sun Sep 6 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
12Z Aviation Discussion Update.

201 AM Update...
Forecast remains on track, with today marking the start of a
stretch of dry weather heading into the middle of the upcoming
work week.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) High pressure settling into the region will promote a stretch
of pleasant weather through midweek, with cooler temperatures
and lowered humidity. A warming trend and increased potential
for showers and storms makes an appearance once again by
Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

Shower and storm coverage winds down early this morning now that
the cold front has completed its slow passage through the
forecast area. One last batch of nocturnal convection was
shifting southeastward at the time of writing, and should clip
our southern zones within the next hours before a stretch of dry
weather commences for the next several days.

The forecast area will relish within building high pressure
beginning today. Post-frontal northerly flow will also yield a
break from this past week`s heat wave, promoting Chamber of
Commerce weather conditions for the rest of the Labor Day
holiday weekend. This will feature cooler temperatures, lowered
humidity, and mostly clear skies.

Temperatures will then steadily climb back above their
climatological norms heading into midweek as the orientation of
the surface high shifts east. The return of onshore flow and
rising upper level heights will then encourage daytime highs to
branch back into the lower 90s for parts of the Tri-State area,
but remaining dry through the day Wednesday.

A cold front approaches late Wednesday night, yielding the
return of showers and storms for the second half of the work
week.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A combination of river valley fog and low stratus has casted
sub-VFR conditions over our airspace this morning. Skies
gradually clear after sunrise, branching back out into VFR
across the board for the day. Isolated showers and storms will
be possible along the higher terrain around 16Z this afternoon,
prompting VCTS at BKW through the remainder of the valid TAF
period.

Another decent signal for river valley fog will be present
tonight amid building high pressure and radiational cooling.
This will mainly be the case for our sheltered valley terminals
of CRW and EKN, while other sites will remain slightly too
breezy for fog production.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of fog erosion may vary this morning.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
EDT 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  L    L    M    H    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    L    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z MONDAY...
IFR conditions possible within river valley fog during the
mornings through early next week.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...05
AVIATION...05