576
FXUS61 KRLX 311728
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
128 PM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry weather opens up the month of September amid high
pressure. Better rain chances arrive mid week ahead of a cold
front.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 130 PM Sunday...

A pleasant afternoon is underway for most of the forecast area
today under the guise of nearby high pressure. The afternoon
cumulus field that has stretched up the Appalachian mountains
has sprouted a few showers and storms down in the southern
coalfields. This area of activity should trail off quickly this
evening with the loss of diurnal heating, setting up for another
quiet night across the area outside of river valley fog
formation.

The month of September opens up with the continuation of mostly
quiet weather with the support of high pressure parked over the
Great Lakes region. A lack of shortwave energy will yield little
to no chances for precipitation Monday afternoon. Temperatures
will adjust up a degree or two between this afternoon and
Monday, with a few spots in the Tri-State area settling into the
low 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 130 PM Sunday...

After a stretch of dry weather, potential for showers and
storms make their return to the forecast area by the latter half
of the day Tuesday. This will be in response to surface high
pressure becoming nudged eastward ahead of a disturbance
arriving closer to midweek. Low level winds veering out of an
onshore flow position will encourage increased moisture to set
up a warmer, and slightly unstable atmosphere to support a few
afternoon showers and embedded thunderstorms to drift into
eastern Kentucky and southwestern West Virginia before sunset.
This potential grows in earnest on Wednesday as additional
moisture streams into the region amid an encroaching cold front.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 130 PM Sunday...

Pre-frontal southerly flow will continue to usher in moisture
for the start of the forecast period that will aid in showers
and storms first noted during the day on Wednesday. While
coverage will diminish with the loss of daytime heating
Wednesday night, central guidance still holds onto precipitation
chances of around 30 percent during the overnight period. This
potential rises steadily throughout the day Thursday as the cold
front swings through the Ohio Valley. Frontal passage is slated
to take place sometime between Thursday night and Friday
morning, and should be quickly followed by a secondary frontal
boundary for the end of the work week. After the parade of
frontal boundaries, rain chances will clear out for the start of
the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 130 PM Sunday...

Afternoon cumulus field spreading up the Appalachian mountains
were noted at the time of writing. A few showers and rumbles of
thunder were underway down in the southern coalfields, but should
remain nestled within this area today and impose little to no
disruptions to our TAF sites. Otherwise, valley fog will once
again be present in a few river basins tonight into Monday
morning. Should be in similar fashion to what was seen earlier
this morning with EKN stuck in dense LIFR fog for much of the
night once it materializes, while CRW and PKB, if fog were to
happen, will only form closer to sunrise. Fog erosion will take
place throughout the morning and will branch into cumulus on
Monday afternoon. Winds through the period will be light and
variable.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: A shower or storm could impact BKW Sunday
afternoon with temporary MVFR CIGs.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
EDT 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z MONDAY...
IFR conditions possible within an encroaching cold front
starting midweek.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A record low temperature of 46 degrees was set at Parkersburg,
WV today. This breaks the old record of 49 degrees set in 1929
and also tied in 1935 and 1976.

Over the last five days, Parkersburg has set or tied a record
on four of the five days (set two and tied two).

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MEK
NEAR TERM...MEK
SHORT TERM...MEK
LONG TERM...MEK
AVIATION...MEK

CLIMATE...MEK/GW