Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
735 FXUS61 KRLX 280940 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 540 AM EDT Wed Oct 28 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... 12Z Aviation forecast discussion update. 149 AM update... Outside of modifications to dew points, no changes were necessary to the forecast. Next chance for rain remains on track to arrive late Saturday night/early Sunday morning. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Dry and slightly above seasonable weather dominates into the weekend. Rain chances returns to the forecast for the beginning of November. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Ongoing quiet weather pattern holds steady through the work week amid high pressure anchored over the region. Mid-level cloud coverage early this morning denotes a passing shortwave, but poses little to no chance for precipitation during its brief residency. While upper level ridging gradually compresses through the course of the week into the start of the weekend, dry weather and above normal temperatures will prevail. The return of rain chances opens up the month of November on Sunday, as a southern stream disturbance tracks into the Ohio Valley. While initial accumulations progged for the end of the weekend look low, this feature will set off an unsettled weather pattern that will stretch into the start of next week. Timing and extent of this approaching disturbance will continue to be hashed out as we get closer to the weekend timeframe. && .AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... VFR conditions remain favored through the TAF period. Overnight mid-level cloud coverage mitigated much in the way of fog this morning outside of brief interruptions in vsbys/ceilings at EKN. Any additional restrictions caused by fog and low stratus will erode by 14Z, branching back out into triumphant VFR for the day. More fog/stratus is anticipated tonight along the higher terrain into EKN once again. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and location of fog could vary. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE WED 10/28/26 UTC 1HRLY 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 EDT 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H M H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 12Z THURSDAY... No widespread IFR expected at this time. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...05 AVIATION...05