130
FXUS61 KRLX 160928
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
528 AM EDT Sun Aug 16 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Aviation Forecast Discussion updated at 09Z.

Latest thoughts on the flash flooding threat for the next 48
hours.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Flash flooding will be the main concern over the next 48
hours. Training thunderstorms can quickly lead to flash
flooding, especially in areas that already saw heavy rainfall
over the past week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

Training thunderstorms are currently causing flash flooding
across portions of southeast Ohio. These training thunderstorms
are being caused by mid- level vorticity flowing on the
northern periphery of a large area of high pressure, in
combination with a stationary surface boundary. The atmosphere
remains very moist, with precipitable water values ranging from
2.00 to 2.25 inches. The main concern through daybreak Monday
will be flash flooding across southeast Ohio counties.

The aforementioned stationary front will lift northeastward
into Pennsylvania after daybreak with the entire forecast area
transitioning into the warm sector. Additional rounds of
showers and thunderstorms are expected area-wide Sunday through
Sunday night as additional mid-level waves track across the
forecast area. It`s difficult to pinpoint exactly where the main
focus of thunderstorm development will be during this
timeframe, as new development will be triggered by thunderstorm
outflow boundaries from previous complexes. We will be
monitoring trends closely. In addition to flooding, severe
thunderstorms will also be possible Sunday with any
thunderstorms. 1,500 J/kg of MLCAPE and 30-35 kts of 0-6km bulk
shear will allow for organized thunderstorm development that
could turn severe at times.

A cold front will finally cross the forecast area from northwest
to southeast Monday afternoon. This will bring high pressure and
the return of much-needed drier weather behind it.

Thunderstorms will return to the forecast Thursday and Friday as
a trough and another area of low pressure approach from the
west.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

VIS/CIG IFR and MVFR restrictions can be seen this morning in
thunderstorms. Rounds of rainfall can be expected the rest of
today with intermittent restrictions in the heavier downpours.
VCTS is expected for the afternoon hours, but confidence is low
in the exact timing and placement of today`s storms. Dense fog
and low stratus will be possible overnight into Monday morning,
especially in areas that saw heavy rainfall during the day.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and location of thunderstorms and
associated impacts will vary.


EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                    SUN 08/16/26
UTC 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
EDT 1HRLY       04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    L    M    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    M    L    L    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    L    H    H    M    H    H    M    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z MONDAY...
Periodic chances for showers and thunderstorms continue through
Monday. IFR or lower conditions are possible around or under
any heavier showers and storms. Valley fog and low stratus is
possible late Sunday night and Monday morning.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Flood Watch through Monday morning for WVZ005>011-013>020-
     024>032-034-039-040-515>526.
OH...Flood Watch through Monday morning for OHZ066-067-075-076-
     083>087.
KY...Flood Watch through Monday morning for KYZ101>103-105.
VA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...26
AVIATION...26