390
FXUS61 KRLX 212312
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
712 PM EDT Tue Jul 21 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
00Z Aviation Discussion Updated.

No significant changes were necessary at this time.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Severe storms expected this afternoon and early evening.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

Mid level shortwave energy will dive south into the area into the
afternoon hours, followed by a cold front late this evening into the
overnight. As a cluster of elevated convection associated with this
shortwave approaches our area, it will encounter a very moist and
unstable environment, with convection becoming more surface based as
it enters our CWA. CAPE values progged to approach 2000 to 4000
J/kg, and increasing shear values of 40 to 60 kts in the 0-6km
layer, will result in potential for storms to become organized.
Damaging winds are the primary hazard, with convection potentially
organizing into lines/bowing segments, but with that being said,
there is a tornado threat as well, with low LCL heights less than
1500m and 0-3km SRH greater than 250.

Timing of the severe activity is difficult to pinpoint, but appears
most should occur in the afternoon to early/mid evening hours, with
an additional round of convection expected with the front later
tonight. It`s possible some of this convection associated with the
front could be low end severe, but with loss of heating, and any
effects earlier convection has on the overall environment,
confidence isn`t high.

Lastly, with any storms that occur, flash flooding is a possibility,
with the overall anomalously high PW are that continues to remain in
place. This should mainly be a threat in locations that receive
repetitive rounds of convection.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Heavy rain and strong thunderstorms will continue to produce
IFR flight conditions at times this evening. Although activity
will continue to taper off from west to east tonight, IFR or
worse conditions are expected to develop in fog and stratus.
CIGs/VIS will slowly improve to VFR after 12Z Wednesday.

Expect moderate southwest winds, with stronger gusts in storms
this evening. Flow will then become calm to light out of the northwest
after a front crosses the area tonight.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Impacts due to thunderstorms could vary.
Fog and/or stratus late tonight and Wednesday morning may be
worse than currently forecast.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                                 WED
UTC 1HRLY       23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10
EDT 1HRLY       19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    L    H    H    M    H    L    L    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    L    H    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    L    M    L    M    M    H    L
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    M    L    H

AFTER 00Z THURSDAY...
IFR valley fog each morning through Friday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Flood Watch until 2 AM EDT Wednesday for WVZ005>011-013>020-
     024>034-039-040-515>523-525-526.
OH...Flood Watch until 2 AM EDT Wednesday for OHZ067-075-076-
     083>087.
KY...Flood Watch until 2 AM EDT Wednesday for KYZ101>103-105.
VA...Flood Watch until 2 AM EDT Wednesday for VAZ003-004.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...SL
AVIATION...20