663
FXUS61 KRLX 140530
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
130 AM EDT Fri Aug 14 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Rounds of rain expected through early next week. Latest
thoughts in Key Message 1.

06Z aviation discussion.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Rounds of rain will continue through early next week,
leading to continued chances of flash flooding each day. A break
in the rainfall will arrive by Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

The overall synoptic pattern will remain the same throughout the
weekend with a ridge of high pressure locked over the
southeastern states and rounds of shortwave energy tracking over
the periphery of the ridge. With progressively saturated soils
after days of continued rainfall, flash flooding will remain a
threat across the region. The Weather Prediction Center
currently places at least some portions of the area under a
Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall each day through 12Z Monday.
Precipitable water values will remain high during this entire
period, ranging from 2.00 to 2.25 inches.

The pattern will begin to shift early next week. On Tuesday, the
axis of the upper-level ridge will transition from the
southeastern states to the southwestern states, and a surface
high will build into the middle Ohio Valley and Appalachians.
This would bring the return of some drier weather area-wide
Tuesday and Wednesday, before another system approaches later in
the week with rain returning.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

IFR dense fog is expected to develop at many of the terminals
between 08Z and 13Z this morning. However, confidence is low
because the combination of clouds, pop-up showers, and
thunderstorms could all disrupt the development of fog.
Terminals most likely to be impacted by showers and
thunderstorms before sunrise include KCRW, KPKB and KCKB.

After 13Z, any locations that received fog will begin to see
improvements, but MVFR ceilings will linger through the
afternoon for many of the sites. Vicinity thunderstorms are also
expected to develop during the late morning and afternoon hours.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Low.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Incoming showers, thunderstorms, and clouds
may disrupt the development of dense fog this morning.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                        FRI 08/14/26
UTC 1HRLY       04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15
EDT 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    M    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    L    L    L    M    M    M    L    L    M    M    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    L    M    M    L    L    L    H    M    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    L    L    L    L    L    M    H    H    M    H

AFTER 06Z SATURDAY...
Periodic chances for showers and thunderstorms continue through
early next week. Brief IFR or lower conditions will be possible
in direct thunderstorm hits or heavy downpours. Where overnight
clearing occurs over wet ground, patchy valley fog and stratus
may bring early morning MVFR or IFR restrictions.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Flood Watch through this evening for WVZ005>011-013>020-
     024>034-039-040-515>526.
OH...Flood Watch through this evening for OHZ066-067-075-076-
     083>087.
KY...Flood Watch through this evening for KYZ101>103-105.
VA...Flood Watch through this evening for VAZ003-004.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...26
AVIATION...26