846
FXUS61 KRNK 111155
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
655 AM EST Tue Nov 11 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
An Arctic airmass with the coldest air so far this season was
centered over the region. This airmass will move east of the
area Wednesday with temperatures moderating for the second half
of the week. Mountain snow showers this morning will come to an
end with mainly dry weather prevailing for the remainder of the
week. It will remain windy, with strong gusty west or northwest
winds persisting until about Thursday before diminishing.
Biggest concern the next several days will be the wind and
potential for it to contribute to elevated fire danger.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 700 AM EST Tuesday...

Key Messages:

1) Headlines: Winter weather related warnings and advisories
have expired. Lingering effects expected until temperatures
warm later this morning.

2) Precipitation: Mountain snow showers will come to an end
this morning with dry weather areawide this afternoon and
tonight.

3) Temperatures: Coldest airmass so far this season will
maintain well below normal temperatures.

4) Winds and Wind Chill: This will be the most impactful
element of the day. Blustery northwesterly winds will persist
with sustained speeds of 10 to 20 mph and gusts of 25 to 35 mph.
These winds combined with the cold temperatures to produce wind
chills in the single digits and teens this morning, and teens
to lower 20s tonight.

A highly amplified upper level trough over the eastern CONUS
will continue to direct cold continental polar air into the
Mid-Atlantic today. Observed 85H temps were -11 deg C in the
regional upper air soundings and this should be about as cold
as it gets before we begin to moderate aloft later this
afternoon and tonight. Still getting some mountain snow showers
and flurries due to upslope lift of moisture from a Lake
Michigan, a feeder band that should break down this morning as
winds turn westerly across the Ohio Valley.

Surface high pressure is poised to build in from the south and
west later today and will become the dominant weather feature
for mid-week. An upper level disturbance will cross the Ohio
Valley and northern Mid-Atlantic tonight, bringing a period of
cloudiness, but no precip this far south latitude. Biggest
influence from this feature will be to tighten the pressure
gradient over the area resulting in persistent windy conditions...
especially across the ridgetops.

See fire weather discussion below, but the combination of the
wind and very low dewpoints will result in good drying
conditions. In spite of recent precipitation, watch for leaf
litter to become crunchy and receptive to fire. Only exceptions
will be areas that actually got some snow cover from this winter
interlude...but for most of the CWA this was not the case.

Confidence is moderate to high in the near term forecast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 AM EST Tuesday...

Key Messages:

1) Quiet and dry weather through the period.

2) Near seasonal temperatures expected.

A large high pressure system centered over Florida will build into
the area on Wednesday, keeping dry conditions in place. A low
pressure system and upper-level shortwave trough over the Great
Lakes will be off to our north. While the moisture and vorticity
stay north of the area, keeping our area dry, the pressure gradient
between the high to our south and the low to our north will cause
westerly winds to increase. Winds of 15-20 mph, and gusts of 30-40
mph will occur west of the Blue Ridge throughout much of the day and
into Wednesday night. A dry cold front moves through Wednesday
evening, turning winds more northwesterly. Combined with very low
dewpoints, the strong northwesterly winds will cause an increased
fire danger for the area with MinRH values around 30%. By late
Thursday, the trough pushes east, and the gradient weakens, allowing
winds to reduce. High pressure both at the surface and aloft build
further into the area, with dry weather and quiet conditions
continuing through the end of the period.

Seasonal temperatures return on Wednesday thanks to the initial
southwesterly flow, with highs in the 50s/60s through the end of the
week, with the highest elevations staying in the upper 40s
Wednesday/Thursday. Lows each morning will remain chilly, in the
20s/30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 300 AM EST Tuesday...

Key Messages:

1) Dry weather continues until late Sunday into Monday.

2) Temperatures climb to above normal for the weekend.

The high pressure system over the Mid-Atlantic weakens slightly
Friday night as a warm front approaches from the west. This may
allow a few showers to form on the western facing slopes due to the
additional lift through Saturday. Any rain would be light, with PoPs
under 20% Saturday afternoon as moisture will be limited. Upper-
level ridging will continue to keep dry and quiet weather in place
across the rest of the region through at least early Sunday as the
next front arrives. The cold front is in association with a low
pressure system in Canada north of the Great Lakes that will mostly
pass by to our north. However, enough moisture and lift will move
through to allow for some showers to form Sunday/Sunday night,
though PoPs remain around 30-40%. The front quickly passes through,
with a brief break from rainfall before yet another system over the
southern Plains moves east. Confidence is low in the strength and
location of the system, but some rain may move into our area late
Monday. Models are currently indicating this system may mostly stay
to our south, which is why PoPs are kept around 20-30% for now.

Temperatures will return to above normal this weekend, with highs in
the 50s/60s each day, with even some low 70s for the Piedmont on
Sunday ahead of the front. Overnight lows will be mainly in the 40s
each night, with higher elevations staying in the 30s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 700 AM EST Tuesday...

Wind and Turbulence: Moderate to locally severe low level
turbulence expected just east (lee side) of the Appalachians
today due to strong cross barrier wind flow. Low level winds of
15-20kts with gusts of 25-35 kts can be expected, particularly
at ridgetop level and through the mountain gaps.

General weather: Still entertaining sharp delineation in flight
conditions across the mountains this morning. Persistent MVFR
and local IFR ongoing along the crest of the Appalachian divide
with impacts to mountain terminals vcnty of BLF/LWB/BCB where
cloud bases were between 1-3kft and vsbys 1-3sm associated with
snow showers. East of the mountains conditions were VFR.

Flight conditions are expected to improve between now and
15Z/10AM with low clouds over the mountains gradually
dissipating and the snow showers coming to an end.

In spite of the improvement with respect to cloud bases, winds
are expected to persist. An upper level disturbance will cross
the Ohio Valley and northern Mid-Atlantic tonight. This will
maintain a tight pressure gradient over the mountains through
Wednesday resulting in strong gusty west to east wind flow
across the mountains.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Wind gusts will persist through Wednesday and reach up to 25-35
kts at times, otherwise VFR. By Thursday, high pressure moves
overhead promoting clear skies and lighter wind speeds. Should
be VFR into Saturday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
As of 400 AM EST Tuesday...

Key Message:

1) Elevated fire weather conditions expected next several
days.

The combination of wind and low humidity will result in
good drying conditions. In spite of recent precipitation, leaf
litter will dry quickly, becoming crunchy and receptive to
fire. The only exception will be areas that actually have some
snow cover.

After today, temperatures will trend warmer. This warming will
combine with the windy conditions and low humidity contributing
to an increase in fire danger across the region. Wind gusts of
20 to 25 mph will be common with gusts up to 40 mph across the
ridgetops Wednesday, and a very dry airmass will be in place
Thursday. Both days are a concern with the peak potential being
Thursday when temperatures return to normal contributing to
higher vapor pressure deficits associated with the dry airmass.

Winds are forecast to diminish by Friday, lessening the effects
of fire spread. However, Friday is expected to be the warmest
day of the week with highs in the 60s, and still favoring good
burning conditions.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...PM/SH
SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...PM
FIRE WEATHER...PM