596
FXUS61 KRNK 250706
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
206 AM EST Tue Nov 25 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A low pressure system will bring scattered showers for the region
Tuesday through Wednesday morning. A strong cold front moves through
to bring frigid and very dry air by Thanksgiving Day. Higher
pressure moves in by the weekend and another frontal system arrives
by early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 200 AM EST Tuesday...

Key Message:

1) Rainy conditions for Tuesday into Wednesday morning.

A surface low and its associated mid-level shortwave are currently
above Missouri and bringing cloud cover to our region. As it
approaches, a warm front will bring a chance of rain for the region.
Some rain is possible later this morning but precipitation chances
increase into Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday morning. The rain
will be scattered but most of the region should receive some
precipitation. Based on latest model guidance and the southwesterly
direction of the showers, areas along the Blue Ridge, especially in
North Carolina and far southwestern Virginia will see the most rain.
Rainfall totals for this area ranges between 0.75-1.25." In
contrast, the New River Valley may see the least amount of rain
between 0.10-0.25." Elsewhere, 0.25-0.50" of rain is forecast with
isolated areas receiving higher amounts. Whatever the final rainfall
amounts may be, the flood risk is low due to drought conditions.

While the system moves through, a disorganized but strong low level
jet passes through the region. This will result in some isolated
surface wind gusts of up to 25 mph. In addition, this jet will
continue to bring in moist and warm air from the south. Dew points
will climb into the 50s and even lower 60s by Wednesday morning and
high temperatures Tuesday afternoon will be in the 50s and 60s.

Confidence in this forecast is average to high.


&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 130 AM EST Tuesday...

Key Messages:

1) Rain ends Wednesday, but gusty winds will prevail.

2) Turning much colder and dry for Turkey Day.

On Wednesday, a negatively-tilted upper level trough will be making
its closest approach to the Mid-Atlantic region, and will swing NE
into New England by Thursday morning. Upper level troughing remains
overhead through Friday. On Wednesday, a cold front crosses the
area, and upslope rain is likely for the mountains and perhaps the
SE Piedmont as the main system exits the area.

Another, mostly dry cold front arrives Wednesday night, ushering in
strong gusty winds and reinforcing colder air. Trajectory analysis
shows strong unidirectional NW flow coming from NW Canada, the
source of the very cold and dry airmass that will filter in through
the end of the week. Wind gusts will be mainly in the 25 to 35 mph
range Wednesday through Thursday night, but may touch wind advisory
criteria briefly for the southern Blue Ridge.

Temperatures will be several degrees above normal Wednesday ahead of
the front, with strong westerly flow. Temperatures drop into the mid
20s to mid 30s that night. High temperatures Thursday and Friday
will range from 15 to 20 degrees below normal, and the lows will be
about 8-12 degrees below normal. Lows look coldest Thursday and
Friday night, with the mountains in the teens to low 20s, and the
Piedmont in the low to mid 20s.

Confidence in the above weather scenario is moderate.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 130 AM EST Tuesday...

Key Messages:

1) Cold, with increasing clouds again by Saturday.

2) A brief period of a wintry mix of snow, sleet and/or freezing
rain is possible on Saturday night, and again Sunday night.

Cold temperatures linger through the weekend, with Saturday morning
seeing the coldest temperatures between 15 and 22 degrees areawide.
Clouds increase and we remain overcast through Tuesday. While
high pressure prevails at the surface through Saturday morning,
glancing blows from upper level energy will bring some light
precipitation chances to the area. Given antecedent cold
temperatures, we may see early and brief instances of snow or
freezing rain in the mountains before temperatures warm up
Sunday morning, and perhaps again Monday morning
early...eventually giving way to rain. Temperatures moderate
some during the day Monday into Tuesday, but highs and lows will
be a few degrees below normal.

Confidence in the long term is moderate.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 130 AM EST Tuesday...

Active weather period for the next twenty four hours for all
terminals. A low pressure system will bring scattered showers to the
region as well as some wind shear. Conditions currently are VFR at
all terminals with quiet winds but cloud cover is expected to
increase overnight before the precipitation arrives. There is a
chance of some early morning showers, particularly at KLWB, KBCB,
and KBLF, but the likelihood of rain increases for all terminals by
early Tuesday afternoon. The rain itself will provide some
limitations to visibilities, but as the day progresses, cloud
ceilings will continue to drop. By Tuesday night, all terminals
except KDAN will likely be IFR/LIFR. (KDAN may only degrade to MVFR
conditions). There is a chance of some lightning with these showers
as well. Lastly, there is a risk of wind shear. Surface winds will
vary in strength and direction as the system pushes through, but
winds aloft are particularly strong due to a low level jet. Model
guidance has recently suggest greater spatial extent of wind shear
due to this jet with impacts to most terminals. (KDAN again is the
least likely to be impacted by wind shear). Wind shear duration is
forecast to be longest at KBCB and KROA but there is enough spread
for KLWB, KBLF, and KLYH to have periods of low level wind shear.

Confidence in this forecast is average to high.


.Extended Aviation Outlook...

Sub-VFR conditions are likely to continue into Wednesday morning as
residual showers persist. A surface high pressure system follows and
brings clear and VFR skies, but a strong change in winds. Wind
direction will be northwesterly and gust between 25-40 kts Wednesday
through Friday. Winds will calm down by the weekend as the center of
the surface high passes by. The airmass that moves in will be
considerably colder and drier. Low temperatures will be below
freezing for the area for the latter half of the week. Rain chances
return by early next week to provide another chance of sub-VFR
conditions.


&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CG
NEAR TERM...CG
SHORT TERM...SH
LONG TERM...SH
AVIATION...CG