Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA
513 FXUS61 KRNK 081747 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 147 PM EDT Tue Sep 8 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Forecast Discussion Updated. Aviation Discussion Forecast Updated. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Warm conditions continue. 2) Multiple days of precipitation possible starting on Thursday. && .DISCUSSION... Key Message 1: Warm conditions continue. A large ridge will continue to move eastward and settle over the Georgia/South Carolina border by Thursday. The ridge will provide warmer than average temperatures for the region with highs progressively increasing each day until their peak on Thursday. By this day, highs will likely be in the mid-80s to mid-90s with heat index values as high as 100 in the Piedmont. Heat Advisory criteria is unlikely to be met but conditions will still be hot for this time of year so vulnerable populations are encouraged to take precautions to prevent heat related illnesses. An approaching cold front may take longer to arrive and pass through than previously thought so warm conditions may still persist into the weekend. Key Message 2: Multiple days of precipitation possible starting by Thursday. The ridge moving eastward will split into two parts with one over the southeastern United States and the other over the southwestern part of CONUS. A cold front with an associated mid-level trough will pass through Thursday night into Friday morning and push our ridge further east and into Bermuda. The timing of this system`s passage is still a little questionable and will be monitored in future forecasts. While wind shear and CAPE will be available on Friday afternoon and evening, abysmal lapse rates of 5.0-5.5 C/km will prevent any serious convection and storm organization. Rain is still possible and areas to the west are likely to receive the most as the cold front moves through. As the mid-level ridge is pushed out, a trough takes advantage of the gap between the ridges and forms to our west and passes through the region during the weekend. This wave and the energy it supplies will likely keep precipitation chances going throughout the weekend. While severe chances overall are low for this whole period, flooding is a concern if there are repeated waves of rain over the same area. PWATs are expected to increase to anomalously high values between 1.5-1.75". Some deterministic models do not rule out high end values of up to 2" which would be double than what is average for this time of year. The forecast for this weekend has seen several edits so stay tuned for additional updates on rainfall totals and potential flood hazards. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... VFR skies for all terminals for the rest of the day as higher pressure dominates the region. Overnight fog is possible again for KLWB with a return to VFR status shortly after sunrise. Winds will remain light and between 5-10 knots and may change direction to southwesterly by Wednesday afternoon. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... VFR skies to continue outside of early morning fog at KLWB for Wednesday and Thursday. A cold front may pass through Thursday night and into Friday morning followed by another mid-level shortwave system by the weekend. This will result in several periods of rainfall and precipitation chances from Thursday night into early next week. While severe weather currently looks unlikely, heavy rainfall will reduce visibilities and likely place most of the terminals with MVFR status or worse. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...CG AVIATION...CG