653
FXUS61 KRNK 041931
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
231 PM EST Thu Dec 4 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Active weather pattern is expected over the next 24 hours. An
area of low pressure developing along the Gulf coast will move
northeast across the southern Mid-Atlantic bringing wintry
precipitation. Cold air over our region will set the stage for
primarily snow, beginning tonight, and continue into Friday,
before ending Friday afternoon. Light to moderate accumulating
snow is likely.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 230 PM EST Thursday...

Key Message:

1) Winter Weather Advisory in effect tonight into Friday for the
entire region.

A low pressure system will bring in snowy conditions tonight into
Friday morning. Recent model guidance suggests this system may
arrive a little earlier than initially anticipated. Currently, the
far western mountainous counties may start to receive light snow as
early as 10PM. As the system moves east, isentropic lift starts to
peak around midnight and light snowfall will take over the
area. The snow will begin to move out around daybreak but may
linger on for a few additional hours before precipitation
chances drop towards zero by early Friday afternoon. Ensemble
model guidance as increased the QPF expected which will
translate into more snow amounts. For most of the region,
between 2-4" are forecast to accumulate overnight with localized
areas receiving up to 5-6". Counties in North Carolina and
counties in Virginia bordering NC may receive the least amount
of snow with only about 1-2". The reason for this is while the
snow system makes its way through, a surface high pressure
system to our northeast will begin to wedge in. This will
reinforce cold air into the area. Due to the timing of this
wedge and the snow arrival, areas in the Piedmont may receive
rain at first which will then transition into snow.

Winds may pick up as the snow moves through, mostly for areas
further west. Even a modest wind gust, however, will decrease
visibility with the light snow. To reiterate from previous
discussions, the early morning commute Friday will be
undesirable given the snowy conditions.

Confidence in this forecast is high.


&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1245 PM EST Thursday...

Key Messages:

1) Quieter weekend with below normal temperatures

2) Front on Sunday night/Monday morning will bring rain for most,
some snow in mountains

Saturday will be mostly quiet with zonal upper flow and little to
speak of in terms of synoptic features. Temperatures will drop well
into the 20s each night. Daytime highs will warm back into the 40s
for most, with Monday being cooler behind a front.

Sunday will feature a cold front introducing rain starting Sunday
night. As temperatures drop with the frontal passage, upslope snow
will take over for rain in the mountains, largely west of Roanoke.
Piedmont and central VA regions will remain liquid in terms of p-
type. Accumulation amounts will be light with this system, as there
will not be sufficient moisture available for large QPF.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 1245 PM EST Thursday...

Key Messages:

1) Quiet workweek bookended by a late week front

In high pressure behind Sunday`s front, the remainder of the
workweek will suppressed by a broad strong region of high pressure.
Monday night will be the coldest immediately in the wake of the
front, with temperatures for most of the forecast area dropping into
the teens. Luckily there will be little wind to speak of, so we will
likely avoid dangerous wind chills. Temperatures warm back to just
below normal for the end of the week, as we look ahead to the next
frontal system likely to impact us Friday. We have settled into a
familiar frequency of frontal systems in winter of another every 3-4
days. Too early to make a call on whether snow will be included with
the late week system, but it is December, so it wouldn`t raise any
eyebrows if frozen precipitation entered the conversation in the
next day or two.


&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 100 PM EST Thursday...

Active winter weather for Thursday night into Friday. A low pressure
system to our south will bring in light snow conditions for most of
the near term forecast period. The snow will likely start around
midnight to the west and move eastward, affecting every terminal.
Unsurprisingly, sub-VFR conditions will invade all airports.
Snowfall total estimates have recently risen but a blanket of at
least one inch of snow is likely throughout the region. Low
level clouds and snow will bring visibilities down to IFR for
all terminals with KBLF and KDAN potentially reaching LIFR. (The
other airports approach LIFR status but it will be close and
currently IFR is more likely). KBLF may get some gusty Friday
morning winds which will heavily reduce visbilities while there
is light snow. KDAN may have some rain initially but then
transitions to snow later overnight. Sub-VFR conditions are
likely to continue into Friday night due to low clouds but the
snow will be over by then.

Confidence in this forecast his high.


.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Persistent low level cloud cover this weekend and another system
early next week may keep all terminals sub-VFR for a while. It may
not be until higher pressure moves in around mid-next week that
skies become clear, but another potential winter system may return
following it.


&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 1 PM EST
     Friday for VAZ007-009-015.
     Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 7 PM EST
     Friday for VAZ010>014-016>020-022>024-032>035.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 7 PM EST Friday for
     VAZ043>047-058-059.
NC...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 1 PM EST
     Friday for NCZ001-002-018.
     Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 7 PM EST
     Friday for NCZ003>006-019-020.
WV...Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 7 PM EST
     Friday for WVZ042>044-507-508.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...CG
SHORT TERM...VFJ
LONG TERM...VFJ
AVIATION...CG