426
FXUS61 KRNK 092024
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
324 PM EST Tue Dec 9 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong cold front will pass across the region Wednesday
afternoon, bringing wind, and triggering another round of snow
showers that will mainly impact the mountains, particularly the
higher mountains from southeast West Virginia through the High
Country of North Carolina. Another disturbance has the potential
to bring a mixture of mountain rain and snow on Friday,
followed by a strong cold front during the coming weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 300 PM EST Tuesday...

Key Messages:

1) A fast-moving cold front will bring wind and showers to the
area Wednesday with accumulating snow along the western slopes
of the Appalachians Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night.

2) Blizzard Warning issued for the WV Highlands...northwest of
Lewisburg, WV.  A Winter Weather Advisory issued for the
remainder of the WV/VA western slopes from Bluefield and
Tazewell to Mount Rogers.

3) Wind and/or Winter Weather advisories may be needed for the
NC High Country.

Confidence is increasing that a disturbance and associated cold
front will bring another round of snow Wednesday afternoon into
Wednesday night for the western parts of the forecast area.

Warmer air will arrive for Wednesday given windflow from the
southwest as our next cold front approaches. Latest forecast
data suggests that rain showers will make their way across the
mountains during the day Wednesday, with rain changing to snow
Wednesday afternoon as a strong cold front pushes rapidly east
across the mountains. Latest data supports snowfall totals of
1" to 3" falling from Wednesday evening through Thursday morning
from Bluefield WV to Boone, NC., with amounts of 4 to 8 inches
in the mountains northwest of Lewisburg WV. Winds are forecast
to gust between 30-50 mph, so this is what is driving the need
for a Blizzard Warning for parts of WV, and also contributing to
the decision to go with Winter Weather Advisories farther south
where blowing snow will also be part of the equation. Will also
be closely assessing need to expand the advisory farther south
into the NC High Country...combination of wind, snow and blowing
snow being the primary focus.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 PM EST Wednesday...

Key Messages:

1) Mountain snow Wednesday night into Thursday morning.

2) Better chance of snow along/northwest of I-81 on Friday.

A low pressure system over the northeastern US will drag a cold
front through the area Wednesday night. This front will cause
rain/snow showers to occur west of the Blue Ridge, with dry weather
expected across the Piedmont. Snow totals will remain light, from a
dusting to at most a half inch. However, for the higher elevations,
1-3" can be expected, and for the mountain tops and Western
Greenbrier County, 4-8" is possible. Wednesday night will also be
very windy, with northwest winds of 15-25 mph along/west of the Blue
Ridge, gusting to 35-45 mph at times, which combined with the snow,
could see blizzard-like conditions. Snow continues into Thursday
morning, with flurries possible through midday.

Thursday afternoon will be quiet, with no precipitation expected.
The break is brief, as the next system will move into the area from
the northern Great Plains. Cold air will already be in place, and
the disturbance will track across the mountains, bringing a chance
of snow Friday morning to a good chunk of the area. Light snow is
possible anywhere north of the NC/VA state line, but the best chance
will be, per usual, along/west of the Blue Ridge. The system moves
through quickly and is gone by Friday night. Accumulations will
again be light, with a dusting to a few tenths possible along I-81,
with the higher totals being in WV, where 1-3" is possible. Western
Greenbrier will again be the hot spot, with 3-5". Friday night will
see quiet and dry weather return to the area.

Temperatures remain below normal, with highs in the 30s/40s each
day. The higher elevations will likely not get out of the 20s on
Thursday. Lows remain consistent, in the 20s to low 30s each morning
due to increased cloud cover.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 300 PM EST Tuesday...

Key Messages:

1) Another storm system possible on Sunday, but confidence is low.

2) Quiet weather for early next week, but it remains chilly.

Saturday looks to be a quiet day, but there is some uncertainty in
the forecast for the late weekend, as models diverge on the location
and strength of a potential system moving through the area Saturday
night into Sunday. Rain/snow will be possible as a front and upper-
level trough move through. Due to the discrepancy amongst models,
PoPs are kept around 30-40%, mainly for west of the Blue Ridge. If
the system remains weak, then there will be little impacts to our
area, but if it strengthens, snow totals could rise. Upslope snow
behind the front will continue for the western facing mountains,
particularly in WV through Monday morning. Models do agree that
behind the Sunday system, high pressure will build into the Mid-
Atlantic Region and keep dry and quiet weather in place for early
next week, though it will be cold. Skies finally clear out for the
first time in nearly a week area-wide, with a good chance of seeing
a strange yellow ball in the sky we call the sun.

Temperatures will be well below normal once again through the
period, at least behind the front. Saturday will have highs in the
40s/50s, with some 30s in the higher elevations. The FROPA on Sunday
will cause temperatures to fall drastically for the mountains, with
highs in the 20s/30s, and 40s for the Piedmont. By Monday, highs
will be in the 20s/30s area-wide, somewhat recovering into the
30s/40s for Tuesday. Overnight lows will also widely vary, in the
20s/30s ahead of the front, but plummeting into the single digits
and teens for Monday morning, before recovering into the Teens/20s
for Tuesday morning. Wind chills Monday morning will be in the
single digits west of the Blue Ridge, with below zero wind chills
for the highest elevations.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 300 PM EST Tuesday...

MVFR/IFR ceilings remain in place near the Blue Ridge. Models
have insisted the cloud layer will dissipate but confidence
remains low as to when this will take place. Models had the
cloud layer going away before noon, but now think it holds into
early tonight before southwest winds can get strong enough to
to promote mixing. The subsidence inversion along with the cold
ground due to the snow cover will be tough to overcome until
southwest winds can promote warm air advection.

For the remainder of the afternoon/evening will be amending
TAFs as needed to account for the sluggish improvement to the
cigs.

Concern later tonight and early Wednesday once the low clouds
clear is the development of LLWS. Winds just above the surface
are forecast to increase out of the southwest at 50kts.

.EXTENDED AVIATON OUTLOOK...

VFR conditions are likely through Wednesday. Sub-VFR
conditions return by Wednesday evening into Thursday for the
mountains with upslope clouds and snow showers, which will
likely last on and off into the coming weekend.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...Winter Weather Advisory from 1 PM Wednesday to 10 AM EST
     Thursday for VAZ007-009-015.
NC...None.
WV...Winter Weather Advisory from 1 PM Wednesday to 10 AM EST
     Thursday for WVZ042-043.
     Blizzard Warning from 10 AM Wednesday to 10 AM EST Thursday
     for WVZ508.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NF
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...PM