109
FXUS61 KRNK 031032
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
632 AM EDT Wed Jun 3 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Aviation update.

Dry weather will remain through the end of the work week, with
warming temperatures each day through Friday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Dry weather with warming temperatures through
the rest of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Dry weather with warming temperatures through
the rest of the week.

An anticyclonic wave breaking event occurring over the eastern
conus will quickly eject the upper level trough currently over
the region south and east of the area. This will quickly rise
the 500mb heights over the region as the upper level ridge that
was over the central conus positions over the eastern conus by
Thursday. Surface high pressure looks to also remain overhead of
the region providing clear skies and light winds areawide. As
this aforementioned upper level ridge settles over the eastern
conus, temperatures will rise progressively each day across the
region, with 70s in the mountains and 80s in the Piedmont today
giving rise to mid to upper 80s in the mountains and low to mid
90s in the Piedmont by Friday. These hot temperatures look to
hang around the region through the end of the weekend until a
frontal boundary pushes through the region Sunday night.

This frontal boundary Sunday night into Monday morning looks to
bring the areas next rain chances. Global model guidance still
differs in the evolution of the upper level trough ejecting out
of the Great Lakes region late in the weekend, and how it
evolves as it progresses south; however, the ECMWF and GFS both
seem to have another anticyclonic wave breaking episode as
another high amplitude upper level ridge builds in behind this
upper level trough by the weekend. Overall confidence is low at
this time in the extended as these key features will determine
whether the region will enter into another wet pattern next
week, or remain semi-dry.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

IFR to LIFR VSBYs and CIGs have developed at several mountain
terminals to include BCB and LWB where it rained yesterday
evening. These restrictions due to ground fog development look
to remain through the early morning hours before dissipating
by the 13-14 UTC timeframe. Once this ground fog has
dissipated, VFR conditions are expected to remain at all
terminals through the remainder of the TAF period. Winds will
generally remain light and variable at around 5 knots or less
out of the north/northeast today.

Some river valley fog may impact LWB early Wednesday night into
Thursday morning; however, confidence is low at this time to
include much more than MVFR VSBYs at this time.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Predominantly VFR conditions will persist through at least
Saturday, with the only potential drop in flight conditions
being patchy nighttime fog, mainly for the mountain and river
valley terminals, though the dry airmass in place could keep
fog development limited. Sub-VFR conditions look to possibly
return to the area with the next system as it brings
showers/storms on Sunday.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for VAZ009>018.
NC...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for NCZ001-002.
WV...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for WVZ043-044-
     507.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...EB
AVIATION...EB