Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA
436 FXUS61 KRNK 191723 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 123 PM EDT Sun Jul 19 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Severe Thunderstorm Watch 498 in effect for east of the Blue Ridge until 8pm EDT. Aviation updated for 18z. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) More strong thunderstorms are possible this afternoon, and additional storms could occur by late Tuesday into Wednesday. 2) Temperatures should turn more seasonable by the middle of the week after a frontal passage. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Severe storms possible mainly in the Piedmont this afternoon. More strong storms possible especially Tuesday. Elevated dewpoints in the upper 60s to mid 70s are in place across the Piedmont. Solar insolation increasing as earlier cloud debris erodes. Temperatures already in the lower 90s in the Piedmont will lead to SBCAPES over 3000 J/kg. Scattered storm development appears likely over the next few hours. Damaging downburst winds will be possible with this activity as low-level lapse rates continue to steepen. Morning observed soundings indicate poor mid-level lapse rates and strong mid- level flow will diminish with southward extent. Even so, storm coverage and potential clustering supports the severe thunderstorm watch this afternoon east of the Blue Ridge. Further west, a few strong storms possible with some higher DCAPE, but earlier clouds and more showers have cooled the lower levels briefly. Convection should wane after the frontal passage tonight, and there may be a lull in activity by Monday morning with some patchy fog in the mountains. Beside fog, smoke models also indicate wildfire smoke from Canada/MN could seep into the Alleghanys/Greenbrier Valley late tonight into Monday. Showers and thunderstorms appear more isolated by Monday afternoon as they will be confined mostly to the NC/VA border with the aforementioned cold front stalling across the Outer Banks. Another cold front should sweep southeastward from the Great Lakes by late Tuesday with the potential for more storms that could bring a damaging wind gust threat. This frontal boundary seems notably stronger and should pass across the Appalachian Mountains by Wednesday. KEY MESSAGE 2...Temperatures should turn more seasonable by the middle of the week after a frontal passage. After the frontal passage on Wednesday, a considerable upper level trough will reside across the Northeast to bring a notable cooling trend. Dewpoints should fall into the 50s along and west of the Blue Ridge and into the lower 60s across the Piedmont by Thursday as high pressure takes control. Look for low temperatures to fall close to these values during Thursday morning and Friday morning. It will be a notable break from the heat and humidity for the latter half of this workweek. Temperatures should trend upward towards the weekend with slightly higher chances of showers and thunderstorms from diurnal heating and orographical lift. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Storms this afternoon will be mainly scattered, but following radar/HRRR trends allows for some confidence in tempo groups at LYH/DAN/BLF and BCB, though BLF/BCB may have less thunder as airmass is not quite as unstable. Still mainly VFR then MVFR to IFR with any storms. As we head through this evening, showers fade, then stratus/fog look to form, with higher confidence in the mountains as some lingering mid/high level cloud cover could limit fog in the Piedmont. Confidence is higher for IFR or lower at LWB/BCB/BLF in the 08-12z time frame, with gradual improvement to VFR by 15z. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... VFR conditions should take place through most of Monday with only limited coverage of showers and thunderstorms by the afternoon across the NC/VA border. Another cold front should arrive by late Tuesday into Wednesday to provide the next notable chance of storms and MVFR/IFR ceilings. Frontal boundary stalls close enough Thursday-Friday to keep a few showers/storms in the forecast but lower confidence on sub-VFR, so mainly VFR late week, outside any fog late at night at the usual LWB/BCB terminals. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...PW/WP AVIATION...PW/WP