989
FXUS61 KRNK 230706
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
206 AM EST Sun Nov 23 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will allow for dry conditions through Monday.
Another weather system moves through the area during the middle
of next week, with a big cooldown expected for Thanksgiving and
beyond.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 200 AM EST Sunday...

Key Message:

A drier and cooler air mass builds in through Monday.

Upper level troughing is crossing the area this morning, and
will put the region in NW flow through Monday. At the surface, a
pre-frontal trough was moving in from the OH Valley, and ahead
of it we had a mix of low level stratus and stratocumulus, as
well as intermittent cirrus and even some areas of clear skies.
Where skies were clear, fog was developing.

Clouds will scatter out by mid morning as high pressure builds
in. Expect a mostly sunny day with temperatures ranging from
the low to upper 50s in the mountains, and the low to mid 60s
for the Piedmont. Winds pick up a little in the mountains, with
gusts to 20-25 mph at times. It will feel much drier with dew
points dropping 10 to 15 degrees compared to yesterday.

Tonight, mostly clear skies, light winds, and a dry air mass
will support lows in the 20s and 30s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 200 AM EST Sunday...

Key Messages:

1) Warming trend towards the middle of the week.

2) Frontal systems to bring rain to the area and a drop in
temperatures by Thanksgiving Day.

Active weather period heading into Thanksgiving week as frontal
systems bring a rollercoaster of temperature changes and
precipitation for the region. A surface high pressure system to our
east continues to move east and into the Atlantic Ocean. A weakening
shortwave will bring a chance of showers by Tuesday. A strong front
supported by an pronounced mid-level low will follow shortly after
it and continue precipitation chances into Wednesday morning. At
this moment, rain looks possible for all counties during this
period. The location of where the most rain can be expected keeps
shifting so it will be best to wait for the short term models before
making any official estimates.

Before the front arrives, winds will become southwesterly. Stronger
winds at 850mb will advect moisture and warmer air from the south
resulting in a wet, warm, and relatively humid Wednesday. When the
cold front passes, the winds will shift from the northwest and gust
to about 25-30 mph along and west of the Blue Ridge. Colder and
drier air will rush in by the morning of Thanksgiving Day. To put it
into perspective, Wednesday morning will be in the 50s and in the
60s and potentially lower 70s in the afternoon. By Thursday morning,
low temperatures will be in the 20s and 30s. Dew points will also
tank into the teens and 20s.


&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 200 AM EST Sunday...

Key Message:

1) Cold and dry conditions to dominate the long term forecast.

In comparison to the short term forecast, the long term forecast is
rather benign. Cold and dry air will dominate the region as a
surface high pressure system moves through the area later this week.
Winds will be much calmer as the surface high`s center passes
through but conditions will still be chilly. Early morning
temperatures post-Thanksgiving may be in the 20s across the region
with highs in the 40s. Dew points may remain in the teens and 20s.
Another frontal system may approach by early next week and a small
warm/moist trend may begin before it crosses. It is too early to
know of any impacts from this system.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 200 AM EST Sunday...

A mix of MVFR to VFR conditions were affecting area terminals,
except for DAN, which was seeing IFR conditions. Stratus,
stratocumulus, and some cirrus were impacting the region, due to
a departing front and the approach of a pre-frontal trough from
the OH Valley. LYH and BLF have the highest likelihood of seeing
IFR ceilings and visibilities, while other terminals should stay
MVFR. Clouds scatter out later this morning with the passage of
a pre-frontal trough. Moisture drops off during the day, so it
will be harder to get fog tonight, and stratus is not expected.

Light NW winds will become gusty by mid morning. Winds should
slowly diminish through the evening hours.


.Extended Aviation Outlook...

Expect VFR conditions Monday and Monday night. The next system
arrives Tue to Wed evening with rain chances and sub-VFR
conditions, with VFR returning Thursday.

Monday through Tuesday, winds turn southerly, then veer SW
Tuesday night, and become westerly and gusty Wednesday into
Thursday.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SH
NEAR TERM...SH
SHORT TERM...CG
LONG TERM...CG
AVIATION...SH