753
FXUS63 KSGF 271030
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
530 AM CDT Sun Sep 27 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- An area of showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue to
  slowly move southeast through portions of the area this
  morning with coverage decreasing to the east and through the
  day. Rainfall amounts will generally be less than one half
  inch, with some areas staying dry especially further to the
  east. A few isolated showers and maybe a rumble of thunder
  could linger across the area this evening into tonight.

- A more widespread round of showers and thunderstorms (50-80%
  chances) looks to occur across portions of the region during
  the middle/end of the week and could occur into next weekend.
  There will be the potential for some locally heavy rainfall
  with this system.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 338 AM CDT Sun Sep 27 2026

An upper level shortwave trough is slowly moving through the
region early this morning. An area of showers and isolated
embedded thunderstorms have developed ahead of the shortwave
trough across northeastern Oklahoma, southeastern Kansas into
southwestern Missouri. The better instability is located in
Oklahoma and Kansas, clipping the far southwestern portions of
the area, where most of the lightning is occurring. But some
weak MUCAPE is in place along and west of Highway 63 where a few
rumbles of thunder will occur this morning. Instability weakens
through the day so coverage in this activity and the potential
for lightning will decrease through the day with the best
coverage from now through mid morning across extreme southeastern
Kansas and southwestern Missouri. Isolated light rain/sprinkles
may linger into tonight across portions of the area as the
trough slowly moves off to the east but not all locations will
be impacted.

Mid level clouds will remain in place through much of the day as
the trough moving through the area. Highs are expected to range
from the lower 70s across central Missouri to around 80 degrees
across extreme southeastern Kansas and far southwestern
Missouri this afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 338 AM CDT Sun Sep 27 2026

An upper level trough is located of the northwestern U.S. early
this morning and will dig south along the west coast today and
Monday closing into an upper level low. The upper level low will
then start to move east into the southern Plains where the
ensemble models showing remaining late week into the weekend
before being kicked off to the east.

As the trough digs into the southwestern U.S. an upper level
ridge will move over the region early this week, with highs in
the low to mid 80s and possibly upper 80s on Tuesday. The
ensemble model members continue to trend slower with this
system as the trough closes into an upper level low and digs
further to the south. Therefore, Monday and Tuesday are expected
to remain dry across the area.

The remnants of Hurricane Polo will move to the northwest early
this week and get absorbed into the upper level low. The upper
level trough will then move east into the southern Plains during
the middle of the week, then models show the low remaining over
the southern Plains into the weekend before another trough kicks
the low off to the east later this weekend. The upper level low
and associated front will bring better changes for widespread
rainfall to the area (50-80%) late Wednesday into Thursday with
rounds of rain remaining possible into the weekend at times as
the upper level low remains to the southwest of the area. The
low and the front will likely shift to the south and back to
the north at times and exactly where the rounds and bands of
rain setup will be dependent on exactly where the front is
located Friday into the weekend. When the front shifts further
south the better rain chances will be to the south, but if the
front can move back north into the area so will the rain
chances. Therefore, there will be the potential for heavy rain
on Wednesday into Thursday and possible late week into the
weekend, which will be dependent on exactly where the
front/upper level low are located.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 530 AM CDT Sun Sep 27 2026

An area of showers and isolated embedded thunderstorms continue
to slowly move southeast across extreme southeastern Kansas and
southwestern Missouri early this morning. Coverage in the
activity will gradually decrease later this morning. A few
isolated showers and maybe a rumble of thunder will remain
possible into this afternoon mainly west of Highway 65. There is
a low chance for a few isolated showers this evening into
tonight, but coverage will be limited if any showers can
develop.

South to southeasterly winds will continue through the morning
hours then will become more easterly to evening northeasterly
later this afternoon through tonight.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Wise