818
FXUS63 KSGF 071848
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
148 PM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- An Extreme Heat Warning is in effect through Tuesday evening
  for counties west of Highway 65. Maximum afternoon heat index
  values around 105+.

- Hot and dry conditions are worsening drought and increasing
  fire danger. Above average temperatures are likely most of this
  week with highs in the 90s to around 100 Tuesday and
  Wednesday. Additional heat headlines may be warranted.

- There is a 60-90% chance of showers and thunderstorms
  Wednesday evening into Thursday and includes a marginal risk
  for severe thunderstorms for areas north of Highway 60.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 1238 PM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026

An upper level ridge resides over the central CONUS, with an
upper level low situated over the Northern Rockies, and an upper
trough off the Eastern Seaboard. Midlevel heights continue to
range between 20-25C, leading to the extended period of extreme
heat continuing. As of 130PM, temperatures east of Highway 65
ranged between the upper 80s to low 90s, with areas west of
Highway 65 reaching the mid to upper 90s (even up to 100 in some
spots), especially closer to the I-49 corridor and westward.
Areas within the Extreme Heat Warning have already reached heat
index values up to 100-110+ degrees generally along/west of
I-49 as well. As the afternoon continues and peak heating is
realized, highs are expected to range between the low 90s
(eastern Ozarks) to low 100s (along/west of I-49).

A remnant MCV was making its way through northern/central
Missouri this morning and early afternoon, however with the
environment remaining capped, the morning activity has since
weakened and dissipated over our CWA. CAMs do hint at very
isolated showers/storms this afternoon over far southwest
MO, with satellite showing a developing cumulus field over
southwest MO, but any chances remain <20% due to a lack of
forcing and warm air aloft keeping things fairly capped.

Tuesday will be another hot day as temperatures climb into the
mid 90s to low 100s once again. We`ve extended the Extreme Heat
Warning through Tuesday for areas west of Highway 65 to account
for the dangerous heat. CAMs indicate some scattered
showers/storms during the afternoon on Tuesday, so we introduced
15-20% pops to account for this potential. We`re not expecting
any of this activity to reach strong to severe potential.


&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1238 PM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026

Starting midweek we`ll begin to see a pattern change as the
aforementioned upper Low progresses eastward, with the
associated upper shortwave trough flattening out the ridge by
Wednesday. At the surface, a cold front is progged to push
southeast through the area beginning late Wednesday afternoon
into Thursday. With a moist airmass out ahead of the front
(dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s) and moderate instability
(MLCAPE upwards of 1500-3000 J/kg), showers and thunderstorms
are likely (60-90+%) to develop along the front and push
southeast Wednesday evening into Thursday. Right now, models
show a linear storm mode, as bulk shear vectors (20-30kts) look
to be parallel to the front. This would lead to a Marginal risk
for damaging winds if any of these storms can become more
organized, though this remains lower confidence as there`s the
potential for convection to be undercut by the front (as
mentioned in SPCs discussion).

Before the frontal passage makes its way through the area late
Wednesday, the heat is expected to continue, with highs once
again reaching the mid 90s to low 100s and heat index values up
to 100-110. Due to some remaining uncertainty regarding the
timing of the front, decided to hold off extending the Heat
headlines into Wednesday, however if trends continue as-is,
we`ll likely need the heat headlines extended one more day.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1216 PM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the entirety of the TAF
period. There continues to be <20% chance of an isolated
shower/storm or two this afternoon across western Missouri,
however confidence in this occurrence remains too low to even
include in a PROB30 group. Otherwise, winds remain out of the
southeast generally below 10kts.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 245 AM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026

Record High Temperatures:

September 7:
KJLN: 101/1998

September 8:
KSGF: 98/1960
KJLN: 98/1955
KUNO: 99/1990

September 9:
KSGF: 98/1939
KJLN: 100/1947
KVIH: 97/1897
KUNO: 99/1980

September 12:
KJLN: 97/1956
KUNO: 96/1980

September 13:
KUNO: 96/1980


Record High Minimum Temperatures:

September 7:
KSGF: 77/1899

September 9:
KSGF: 75/1939

September 10:
KSGF: 74/1938

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Tuesday for KSZ073-097-101.
MO...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Tuesday for MOZ066-067-077-
     078-088-089-093-094-101>103.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Melto
LONG TERM...Melto
AVIATION...Melto
CLIMATE...Burchfield