304
FXUS63 KSGF 302319
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
619 PM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5) for strong to severe thunderstorms
  east of Highway 65 Friday afternoon and evening. Damaging wind
  gusts will be the primary risk, with a secondary risk for
  hail and tornadoes.

- Unseasonably cool temperatures and windy conditions this
  weekend, especially Saturday, with highs in the upper 70s to
  lower/middle 80s and gusts up to 30 mph.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 254 PM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

Synoptic Overview:

An upper-level trough axis is set up over the east coast with a
broad ridge across the central and western CONUS. Water vapor
imagery shows the beginnings of a mid-level cyclone developing
over the Upper-Midwest this afternoon. On radar, residual
showers have lingered in the vicinity of a boundary stretching
southeast from the Midwest down to the Gulf states.

Showers and Storms Tonight into Friday:

Convection will come in two rounds as the aforementioned low
pushes through Missouri; the first will be with the warm front
after midnight. The greatest coverage with this round will be
along and north of the Highway 54 corridor within the zone of
stronger lift. Hazards with this round will be lightning and
periods of locally heavy rainfall producing totals around 1
inch.

The second round will manifest along and ahead of the trailing
cold front that moves through Missouri Saturday afternoon and
evening. It remains to be seen how distinct this second round
will be from the first if convection lingers through the morning
and early afternoon. That said, the second round will bring the
potential for strong to severe storms. Models depict the mid-
level low deepening during the day and becoming rather dynamic
for a late July system. MLCAPE values are progged to reach
between 1500-2000 J/kg with diurnal heating; however, there
will be some mid- level capping to overcome, particularly across
western Missouri, which will limit mid- level lapse rates and
overall severe potential for these locations. Coverage is also
in question here, but if storms do form, the primary hazard
would be hail to quarters. This is a very low-confidence risk
within SPC`s Marginal risk area.

As you look toward the eastern Ozarks and eastern Missouri,
this capping becomes less of a problem, allowing storms to be
more surface- based. Deep-layer shear magnitudes look fairly
marginal between 25-35 kt but are largely orthogonal to the
front. Therefore, convection may initially be semi- discrete
before conglomerating into loosely organized clusters and line
segments. As this occurs, damaging winds will become the primary
hazard. The 18Z CAM guidance seems to support this evolution. This
is also where forecast hodographs become rather curvy in the
low levels. If the progged 0-1 km SRH values of 250 m2s2 align
with pockets of sufficient low- level CAPE, then a tornado risk
may become apparent. The SPC Day 2 outlook was upgraded to a
Slight risk for eastern Missouri, primarily for the wind risk,
but it also includes a 2% tornado risk. The window of the
greatest severe thunderstorm risk is between 4pm-11pm.

Possible Heat Headlines on Friday:

Warm, moist air will continue to advect into extreme southwest
Missouri and southeast Kansas on Friday. Current deterministic
NBM heat indices are right around--or even slightly above--105
degrees for these locations. However, given the abundant cloud
cover and potential for pesky convection to linger into the
afternoon, confidence was not high enough to issue a Heat
Advisory with this afternoon forecast package. The overnight
update will be able to better assess this potential.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 254 PM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

A cooler and drier airmass will move in behind the
aforementioned cold front on Saturday. In fact, high
temperatures are only progged to reach the mid 70s to low 80s,
which is around 10 to 15 degrees below the climatological
average. A well mixed thermo profile and modest surface pressure
gradient will support breezy northerly winds as well, with
frequent gusts of 25 to 30 mph.

Ensemble clusters depict varying solutions in how quickly they
pivot Friday`s system through the northeastern CONUS;
regardless, it will largely be out of influence for our CWA. At
most, the eastern Ozarks could experience a few showers behind
the low on Monday and Tuesday should the slower solution pan out.
Out west, the flattened ridge will persist throughout much of
the week. This will keep precipitation chances low with no
obvious signal for widespread rainfall.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 605 PM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

Scattered showers are across western Missouri and eastern Kansas
at the start of the TAF period, though no impacts are imminently
expected at TAF sites. More widespread showers and possibly a
few rumbles of thunder are expected to develop and move across
the area after 09Z.

Southeasterly winds shift to southwesterly as showers and storms
push in around 12Z, with gusts up to 20 kts possible after 15Z
on Friday.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Didio
LONG TERM...Didio
AVIATION...Camden