136
FXUS63 KSGF 191108
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
608 AM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Heat Advisory remains in effect through 8 PM tonight. Highs
  near 100 with heat index values of 100-105 degrees can be
  expected. Daily records may continue to be tied or broken.

- Rain and storm chances (15-40%) return late tonight,
  increasing to 40-80% Sunday and lingering into Monday with a
  cold frontal passage.

- If several factors align properly, strong winds 50-60 mph and
  large hail up to the size of quarters could be possible
  Sunday afternoon (Marginal/Level 1 of 5 Risk for severe
  weather).

- Return to seasonal temperatures behind the cold front by
  Tuesday, with near-normal temperatures through the work week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 230 AM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

Current Conditions and Synoptic Overview:
00Z upper air analysis depicts broad ridging still firmly in
place across most of the country east of the Rockies, while a
trough aloft sits across the Great Basin. Weak low pressure is
in place from western Iowa/eastern Nebraska extending southwest
into western Kansas, and a cold front has become more well-
established along this corridor of lowered pressure over the
last few hours. This cold front will be the focus for convective
development this afternoon and evening across portions of
central and northeast Kansas, generally staying to the north and
west of our area today.

Heat Continues Today:
With the cold front staying north and west of our area today,
very little relief is in sight in terms of the heat.
Temperatures in the upper 90s continue, with heat indices again
between 100 and 105 degrees this afternoon. As such, the Heat
Advisory continues through 8 PM tonight. The potential continues
for additional temperature records to be broken again today.

Shower/Thunderstorm Chances Today and Tonight:
The afternoon pop-up shower and thunderstorm chances are lower
today than previous days, with marginal to no instability to
work with (<500 J/kg of SBCAPE across most to all of the area
this afternoon). The best rain chances (15-40%) come after
midnight tonight as the cold front approaches the northwest
portions of our area, with a line of storms organized along the
front.

Most 00Z CAM reflectivity fields suggest the storm complex(es)
will weaken so much by the time they reach the fringes of our
area that most, if not all, storms will dissipate as they reach
our counties as they lose access to sufficient instability.
Additionally, the front does not appear to be particularly
quick-moving, with the fastest solution bringing the front as
far south as I-44 by 7AM Sunday, and most models suggesting the
front is somewhere between our CWA line and I-44. As such, rain
chances would not extend south of I-44 tonight regardless of
the persistence of existing convection as it moves into our
area.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 245 AM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

Shower and Storm Chances Continue Sunday Into Monday:
As the cold front continues pushing through the area from
northwest to southeast through the day on Sunday, shower and
thunderstorm chances will continue. Moisture will be best
furthest to the west even as the front progresses, so the best
instability (>1500 J/kg CAPE) will also likely remain in the
western portions of our area for storms to tap into. The
questions regarding extent of ongoing showers/storms and
residual cloud cover Sunday morning does translate into some
questions surrounding location and timing of storms, greatest
extent of coverage, and just how intense storms could get.
Regardless, with temperatures still in the 90s ahead of the
front and dew points increasing by 10+ degrees with frontal
passage, re-initiation of storms is expected to some degree by
the afternoon as a reinforcing vort max from the upper trough
pushes across the region. Once storms re-initiate Sunday
afternoon, rainfall will likely continue overnight into Monday
as the front slowly slides further southeast out of the area.

Vertical wind profiles are generally unimpressive, with upper-
level impulses generally restricted to shortwave intrusions
along the northern periphery of the ridge that flattens into Ark-
La-Tex through the weekend rather than the support of an
organized jet streak. However, remnant enhancements from
nocturnal low-level jet streak activity may locally enhance
shear to 30-40kts as the jet streaks are advected into our
area, increasing shear enough that organized cold pools could
briefly develop and support severe winds to 60 mph. If shear >40
kts can overlap with areas where MUCAPE >2000 J/kg AND storms
form within that overlap, elevated storms would have the
potential to produce hail up to quarter to ping pong sized, but
this risk appears more conditional at this time. The most likely
time period for this overlap would be Sunday afternoon into
early evening.

Convection still appears to not be continuous in time or space
throughout the day Sunday, with all-day washouts still appearing
unlikely; it appears more likely that multiple rounds of
strengthening and diminishing showers and storms will occur
throughout Sunday and even into Monday. Most areas are expected
to see between 0.25-0.75", with low end (10th percentile)
amounts of 0-0.1" and high end amounts (90th percentile) of
1.25-2" in most areas (per NBM). Highly localized bullseyes of
2+ inches seem plausible in areas that see strong storms or
repeated rounds of rainfall, with 00Z HREF LPMMs further
indicating very localized pockets of 2+ inches could occur
somewhere. Even so, considering recent drought, soils will be
capable of soaking up 2" easily, so flash flooding is not
expected with these storms. Highest rainfall totals are still
anticipated to align with areas of highest overall moisture
north of I-44.

Heat Sunday, But Then It`s Done:
As the cold front moves through on Sunday, it will finally start
cooling things off. However, far southern and eastern portions
of our area may not see the front until Sunday night, so
depending cloud cover, moisture return, and frontal progression
by Sunday morning, temperatures on Sunday may remain in the 90s
for a final day in some areas. Due to this uncertainty, opted
not to extend the Heat Advisory into Sunday at this time, but it
still remains a possibility, depending on how the situation
evolves over the next 24 hours.

However, Monday finally brings temperatures back down below 90
degrees, with a temperature gradient ranging from upper 70s in
west-central and central Missouri to mid- to upper 80s in
south-central Missouri as the frontal influence lingers across
the eastern Ozarks. Tuesday has seasonally appropriate
temperatures in the mid- to upper 70s areawide, with lows in the
50s. These temperatures look to continue through the work week,
with PoPs remaining below 20% through Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 604 AM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

VFR conditions expected to prevail through the TAF period, with
southwesterly winds gusting up to 20-24kts between 15Z-23Z at
KSGF and KJLN. Clouds will begin to increase as the period
progresses and a cold front approaches the region from the
northwest. Showers and storms will start to approach KJLN and
KSGF after 06Z with the front, but decreasing coverage in
activity as it moves southeast makes it appear unlikely that
precipitation will impact TAF sites before 12Z.



&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 309 AM CDT Fri Sep 18 2026

Record High Temperatures:

September 19:
KSGF: 96/1954
KJLN: 99/2024
KUNO: 97/1954
KVIH: 100/1954

September 20:
KSGF: 97/1954
KJLN: 99/1954
KVIH: 95/1954
KUNO: 97/1954


Record High Minimum Temperatures:

September 19:
KSGF: 73/1931
KJLN: 77/2005
KUNO: 71/2018
KVIH: 74/1978

September 20:
KSGF: 74/2018
KJLN: 75/1980
KUNO: 74/2018
KVIH: 73/2018

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ073-097-101.
MO...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for MOZ055>058-
     066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Camden
LONG TERM...Camden
AVIATION...Camden
CLIMATE...Camden