104
FXUS63 KSGF 300350
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1050 PM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above normal temperatures will occur across the area today and
  Wednesday, and across the eastern portions of the area on
  Thursday. Highs will warm into the mid to upper 80s with
  highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s on Wednesday. Some record
  highs may be approached on Wednesday.

- Rounds of showers and thunderstorms (70 to 95% chances) are
  expected Wednesday night into Friday. There will be the
  potential for some locally heavy rainfall with this system.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 115 PM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026

High pressure will stick around the area through the next couple
of days. This will allow our daytime high temperatures to reach
the mid 80s today, and upper 80s to lower 90s tomorrow with
partly sunny skies. A few record highs may be broken over the
next couple of days. A drier than expected air mass is in place
again today with dewpoints in the upper 40s to lower 50s and
min RH with the 20-30% range over the eastern Ozarks and 40-50%
out west. Clouds start to build in this afternoon ahead of the
incoming system. Lows tonight will be warm due to the cloud
cover with temperatures in the upper 60s to lower 70s.
Southeasterly winds will gust up to 25 mph ahead of the low
pressure system. They will briefly drop to 10 mph overnight,
then increase back to 25 mph for Wednesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 115 PM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026

The digging trough that`s currently over the west coast will
merge with the remnants of Hurricane Polo and bring us some much
needed rain to end the week. Timing for the rain has once again
been pushed back. We now don`t have rain entering most of the
area until Thursday afternoon. There are a couple of general
thunder outlooks from SPC for the next couple of days. The
strongest part of the trough will move through Thursday
afternoon and could bring us a few rumbles of thunder and maybe
a few isolated thunderstorms. Moisture and lift and low-level
bulk shear (~30 kts) will be there, but instability is in
question as MUCAPE values are ~500 J/kg. The trough over the
area will be impacted by another trough moving through the
northern Plains bringing us a cold front for the weekend. A
northerly wind shift will occur during the day Friday, but the
dewpoint drop won`t occur until Sunday until a secondary front
moves through. The first front could sweep through rather
quickly and clear out the rain by Saturday morning, or it
sticks around and stalls out over southern MO bringing the area
more rain until that secondary front moves through on Sunday.
Right now, we are going with the stalled front scenario with
rain continuing through Saturday morning (30-50% chance of
rain) and ending north to south Saturday evening.

Flooding: There is a flooding threat mainly west of Highway 65
where the higher axis of forecasted rainfall totals are
situated. Though, rainfall totals continue to decline as they
have been over the past few forecast cycles. The trough will
move into KS/OK and take its time moving east. It seems to
become elongated and string out over the Central Plains. This
system will be tropical-like and bring an abundance of moisture
with it. Model PWATs with this system are record- breaking with
values for this time of year near 2". Our daily max right now is
1.49", so this clearly will be a moist airmass moving in.
Expect the rainfall to occur in bands. This also means there may
be sharp cut offs in rainfall amounts if you are located just
outside of or too far to the east of these bands. We are in a D2
to D3 drought, which indicates that our soils could use the
moisture. Even with that information, we still may issue a Flood
Watch for counties at least west of I-49 due to the possibility
of training heavy bands of rain for 24-48 hours. Showers over
in that area will be efficient rainfall producers and will
likely have high rain rates. Areas in drought could still see
flash flooding from this activity if the rain rates are high
enough.

Temperatures: The rain will take its time spreading west to
east on Thursday which will give us a 10-15 degree spread in
temperatures across the area. Where the clouds and rain are,
highs will stay in the lower 70s. Out over the eastern Ozarks
where most of Thursday will be dry for them, they will be in the
mid to upper 80s. By Friday, everyone will experience the
cooldown with highs in the 70s. Those highs stick around through
the weekend and into the start of next week with lows in the
50s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1048 PM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026

Confidence is high that VFR conditions will prevail through the
TAF period with mid level clouds at times. There is a low chance
for some light rain at JLN towards the end of the period otherwise
dry conditions are expected. Winds will start out south to
southeasterly with a gradual turn to due south Wednesday morning
and afternoon. Wind gusts on Wednesday will likely reach 20kts,
especially at JLN and SGF. Low level wind shear is possible at
the sites early Wednesday morning and again Wednesday night
however speeds are too low to include at this time.


&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 350 AM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026

Record High Temperatures:

September 30:
KSGF: 91/1979
KJLN: 93/1952
KVIH: 93/2023
KUNO: 92/1952

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Soria
LONG TERM...Soria
AVIATION...Burchfield
CLIMATE...Wise