652
FXUS63 KSGF 241837
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
137 PM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above normal temperatures likely for the next week. Highs in
  the middle 70s to around 80 and dry weather are expected
  through the end of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 130 PM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026

Current Conditions and Synoptic Overview: Water vapor and upper
air analysis shows a blocking pattern across the country. An
amplified ridge was in place over our area with troughs of low
pressure out west and out east. The ridge along with warm air
aloft has allowed for warm and dry conditions to prevail with
cool mornings and warm afternoons. As of early afternoon, temps
were already in the middle to upper 70s which is roughly 10
degrees above average for late October. Winds were light out of
the south.

Above Normal Temps and Dry Conditions: Other than some passing
high clouds, mostly clear skies will persist. Temps should rise
a few more degrees this afternoon with a few areas pushing 80
degrees. The airmass was dry with RH`s around 25-30% however the
light winds were keeping the fire risk/spread limited. Another
cool night is expected with lows in the 40s out east and the 50s
across the west. Persistence forecast for Sunday other than a
slight increase in high clouds.


&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 130 PM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026

Above Normal Temps and Dry Conditions: The upper low out west
will begin to shift northeast into the northern plains as
another low moves into the northwest US on Monday and Tuesday.
This low then moves into the northern plains mid week, placing
our area in more of a southwest flow. The lack of moisture and
lift should keep the persistence forecast going for much of next
week with highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s. The warmest
days of the week (higher chances of at least reaching 80) appear
to be around Thursday as even warm air aloft moves in ahead of
the next system. Precipitation chances remain less than 10
percent through Friday.

Rain Chances Next Weekend: While significant ensemble variance
remains, the southwest flow pattern aloft looks to allow for at
least some rain chances for next weekend. The main questions
center around the upper low out west and its path and timing.
Ensemble cluster analysis does suggest the rain potential
increasing and rain chances are now in the 30-50% range for next
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1142 AM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026

Confidence is high that VFR conditions will prevail through the
TAF period with passing high clouds at times. Winds will remain
out of the south at SGF and JLN and southeast to east at BBG
however speeds will generally remain at or below 10kts.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burchfield
LONG TERM...Burchfield
AVIATION...Burchfield