386
FXUS63 KSGF 061040
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
540 AM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- An Extreme Heat Warning remains in effect through Sunday
  evening. The extreme heat will continue into Monday over SE KS
  and Western Missouri with areas of central Missouri into the
  eastern Ozarks seeing lower temps.

- There is a 20-40% chance of scattered showers and
  thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. A few storms could
  produce wind gusts up to 60mph.

- Hot and dry conditions are worsening drought and increasing
  fire danger. Above average temperatures are likely this week
  with highs in the 90s to around 100 Tuesday and Wednesday.
  There is a 40-60 % chance of showers and thunderstorms
  Wednesday night into Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 245 AM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026

Current Conditions and Synoptic Overview: Water vapor and upper
air analysis shows the center of the mid level ridge continuing
to shift west over Kansas and Oklahoma. A slightly more
northwesterly flow aloft has allowed for some weak and subtle
disturbances to move towards the area. The 00z KSGF sounding
measured a 850mb temp of 25C which allowed for highs to reach
the low 100s across the area yesterday. A surface front was
analyzed to be very close to Rolla where winds had shifted to
the northeast. A few elevated showers have developed across
southwest Missouri. Temps were still warm with most areas in the
70s to around 80.

Hot Temperatures Today and Thunderstorm Chances: The surface
front will continue to slowly shift southwest into more of the
area during the day with an increasing cumulus field with day
time heating. Between the front and a weak upper level
disturbance, scattered pulse thunderstorms should form from
early afternoon into the evening. The Ozarks Pulse Thunderstorm
Index is showing the potential for a few thunderstorms to
produce downbursts with damaging winds to 60mph and the SPC has
a Marginal risk for severe storms across most of the area. This
is due to a corridor of 2000-3000j/kg of ML CAPE, PW values
around 1.75in and 0-3km theta e diffs around 25-30C. Not all
locations will experience this activity however those with
outdoor plans will need to remain weather aware during the
afternoon and evening hours. A few CAMS and even the RAP are
holding onto rain chances further after sunset across western
Missouri, perhaps as late as midnight. This may be due to a weak
disturbance moving through.

Outside of any thunderstorms, conditions will likely be similar
to yesterday with hot conditions. High temps in the upper 90s to
lower 100s will be common with heat indicies between 100 and
105. The Extreme Heat Warning remains in effect and some records
will again be challenged. Locations east of Springfield will
experience a drier airmass moving in and could keep highs and
heat indicies a little lower than previous days.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 245 AM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026

Above Average Temps This Week: The surface front and lower
dewpoints will create an airmass gradient over the area on
Monday. Locations west of Highway 65 will likely experience
highs in the upper 90s to low 100s with dews in the middle/upper 60s.
Areas further northeast towards Rolla will experience highs in
the lower to middle 90s with dews in the upper 50s to lower 60s.
There are some CAMS and short range models showing lower temps
and dews further west which is creating a little uncertainty.
We may need to extend the Extreme Heat Warning for locations
west of Springfield into Monday in future updates if confidence
in hotter temps increases.

Ensembles are then in strong agreement that the mid level ridge
will reassert itself over the area Tuesday and Wednesday. This
will allow for highs again to surge into the 90s to low 100s
with the hottest temps west of Springfield. Additional records
will be challenged. We will need to monitor for the potential
for more heat headlines. Surface low pressure across the plains
may set up a pressure gradient which would allow for southerly
wind gusts of 15-20mph during the afternoons. This would create
elevated fire conditions, especially west of Springfield and in
the worst drought areas.

Rain Chances Late Week: A stronger shortwave looks to move
through the northern plains on Wednesday, sending a front into
the area. Rain chances have now increased into the 40-60% range
into Thursday with this frontal passage. Lower mid level
heights should keep highs from reaching the record levels that
we have been experiencing however above average temps are still
expected late week. Ensemble variance then increases next
weekend as another disturbance moves into the Rockies.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 538 AM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026

Confidence is high that VFR conditions will prevail through the
TAF period. There is a 20 to 30 percent chance of scattered
showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening at the
sites and continued a prob30 group for now. Winds will start
out easterly with a slight turn to the northeast during the day
with speeds generally less than 10kts. Any locations that
experience afternoon thunderstorms could locally see higher wind
gusts over 30mph.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 245 AM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026

Record High Temperatures:

September 6:
KSGF: 100/1960
KJLN: 101/1954
KUNO: 101/1990

September 7:
KJLN: 101/1998

September 8:
KSGF: 98/1960
KJLN: 98/1955
KVIH: 100/1901
KUNO: 99/1990

September 9:
KSGF: 98/1939
KJLN: 100/1947
KVIH: 97/1897
KUNO: 99/1980

September 10:
KJLN: 96/2000

September 12:
KSGF: 97/1939
KJLN: 97/1956
KUNO: 96/1980


Record High Minimum Temperatures:

September 6:
KSGF: 76/1925

September 7:
KSGF: 77/1899

September 9:
KSGF: 75/1939

September 10:
KSGF: 74/1938

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ073-
     097-101.
MO...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for
     MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burchfield
LONG TERM...Burchfield
AVIATION...Burchfield
CLIMATE...Burchfield