863
FXUS63 KSGF 212210
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
510 PM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Heat Advisory and an Excessive Heat Warning are in effect
  until 7 PM today, with heat index values between 100 to 110
  degrees in the Heat Advisory area and in excess of 110 in the
  Warning areas. The hottest conditions will occur across
  extreme southern Missouri and southeast Kansas.

- Low-confidence thunderstorm risk this afternoon and early
  evening. The Storm Prediction Center has outlined portions of
  south- central Missouri and the eastern Ozarks in a Marginal
  Risk (Level 1 of 5) for an isolated wind gust up to 60 mph.

- Seasonable temperatures mid to late week, with rain chances
  returning late Thursday through Saturday morning.

- Heat is expected to return to the region early next week as
  the pattern looks similar to the start of this week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 1213 PM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026

A cold front was in the process of moving through the Ozarks
early this afternoon and will continue to make its way south
into this evening. Despite the frontal passage, temperatures
were in the upper 80s to middle 90s with dew points in the
middle to upper 70s. This has produced heat index values from
100 to in excess of 115 by noon. A Heat Advisory continues
through 7 pm this evening as a result and an Excessive Heat
Warning was issued earlier this morning for areas along far
southern Missouri and extreme southeastern Kansas where heat
index values in excess of 110 are expected.

Initial concerns were for increased cloud cover as the front
moves through the region. So far this has not materialized and
temperatures have been able to warm as the cooler and drier air
was lagging well behind the front, as was expected in previous
forecasts. However, forecast soundings showed strong mixing
behind the boundary. So, though temperatures will remain high
through the afternoon, heat indices should level off or even
slightly decrease.

With the high temperatures and dew points, ample instability
will develop this afternoon with as much as 3000-4000 J/kg
MUCAPE noted by CAMS. This in conjunction with weak lift from
the front and some meager shear in the eastern Ozarks, might be
enough to allow isolated storms to develop this afternoon and
evening. For the most part, these would be sub-severe, but if a
storms can become severe, damaging winds will be the primary
concern with the best potential where SPC has a Marginal Risk
for portions of Oregon, Shannon, and Howell.

Some relief from the heat will come tonight as temperatures
finally fall out of the 70s for most of the region though some
locations across far southern Missouri and southeastern Kansas
will linger around 70 degrees.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1213 PM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026

A cooler and less humid airmass will be in place across the
region Wednesday into Thursday thanks to todays cold front.
This will allow for afternoon highs to be more seasonable with
lower to middle 80s for central Missouri to the middle and upper
80s across southern Missouri with a few temperatures around the
90 mark. With dew points in the 60s, the overall conditions
will feel significantly more reasonable than today.

By Thursday night into Friday, global models flatten the ridge
as another shortwave trough moves through the area late
Thursday. This will bring the next chances for rain into Friday.
Rain chances continue to be between 30 to 70%, with the highest
potential across central Missouri. Additionally, a secondary
wave brings additional rain potential, from 20 to 60%, for
Friday night into Saturday morning continuing the cooler
forecast into the start of the weekend.

Synoptic and global models then begin to return the upper level
ridge to the region on Sunday and into early next week setting
up another round of heat potential. Some of the model 850mb
forecast temperatures are in the 26 to 28 degree C range for
next Monday and Tuesday. This is well in the future, though if
this were to pan out, highs could once again climb into the
middle to upper 90s to start next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 510 PM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026

VFR conditions will occur across the area this evening through
the day on Tuesday. A front will continue to move south of the
area this evening which will result in northerly winds
occurring through the TAF period.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for KSZ073-097.
     Extreme Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for KSZ101.
MO...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MOZ055>058-
     066>071-077>083-089>092-094.
     Extreme Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for MOZ088-
     093-095>098-101>106.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hatch
LONG TERM...Hatch
AVIATION...Wise