567
FXUS63 KSGF 052345
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
645 PM CDT Sat Sep 5 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- An Extreme Heat Warning remains in effect through Sunday. The
  extreme heat will continue into Monday over the west with
  areas of central Missouri into the eastern Ozarks seeing some
  modification.

- Hot and dry conditions are worsening drought and increasing
  fire danger. There is a low chance (20% or less) for scattered
  showers and thunderstorms both this afternoon/evening and
  again Sunday afternoon/evening. However many locations will
  remain dry.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 330 PM CDT Sat Sep 5 2026

Extreme heat to remain the concern this weekend as the center of
a 593dm upper ridge is centered over KS into OK remains the
dominant weather feature. A short wave riding the top of the
ridge will push a backdoor front moving northeast to southwest into
the region Sunday providing a bit of relief to some but not
all. Confidence is highest that heat indices on Sunday will
again top 105 over southeast KS into western and far southwest
Missouri. As the advance and influence of the boundary is better
determined, there will be a likelihood that the Extreme Heat
Warning will need to be extended.

The 12z SGF RAOB depicted a bit more moisture...with early
afternoon cumulus reflecting this increase. The HRRR has
maintained the development of isolated to widely scattered
showers between 3 and 6 PM...mainly to the south of I-44
today...and there is similar expectations on Sunday. Due to
skinny CAPE/poor lapse rates and the amount of dry air that will
be quickly entrained...any storms that are realized will be
limited and short lived. Severe weather is not expected.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 330 PM CDT Sat Sep 5 2026

Any degree of relief will be short lived Sunday and Monday as
the upper ridge rebounds with heights likely climbing to 596dm
Monday into Tuesday and 850 mb temperatures warming to around 25
degrees. This will lead to temperatures and heat indices to
once again climb back to near or around triple digits CWA-wide
Tuesday.

A more significant shortwave moving along the Canadian border
will flatten the ridge Wednesday with a frontal boundary
expected to descend into Missouri. Better rain chances will be
over central Missouri with decreasing coverage farther south.
Amounts are expected to be limited to a tenth to a quarter inch.

Falling heights will lead to moderating temperatures following
the front into next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 645 PM CDT Sat Sep 5 2026

Current radar data shows a few isolated showers and
thunderstorms east of the TAF sites. A few of these may come
within the vicinity of SGF and BBG between 00-04Z, though
coverage and size of these cells are so limited, that confidence
in any impacts is too low to include in the TAFs at this time.

Otherwise, winds will be light and variable, somewhat dominant
out of the east-northeast after 12Z. Skies will be mostly clear
save for a cu field between 5-7 kft before 04Z and after 15Z.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 245 PM CDT Sat Sep 5 2026

Record High Temperatures:

Springfield:
9/5: 99(1990)
9/6: 100(1960)
9/7: 104 (1947)
9/8: 98(1939)
9/9: 98 (1939)

Joplin:
9/5: 103(1998)
9/6: 102(1947)
9/7: 105(1947)
9/8: 101(1947)
9/9: 100(1947)

West Plains:
9/5: 97(1998)
9/6: 95(1998)
9/7:99(1998)
9/8:91(2005)
9/9:94(2013)

Vichy/Rolla:
9/5: 104(1899) 9/6: 105(1899) 9/7: 101(1899) 9/8: 100(1901) 9/9:
97(1897)

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Sunday for KSZ073-097-101.
MO...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Sunday for MOZ055>058-
     066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Runnels
LONG TERM...Runnels
AVIATION...Price
CLIMATE...Burchfield