Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 080755
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
255 AM CDT Sat May 8 2021

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 255 AM CDT Sat May 8 2021

Regional and local radar was showing a band of convection
developing over northeast KS into southeast KS and southwest MO
early this morning. This area of convection was occurring as the
low level jet increases in an area of higher moisture with PW
values of 1.0-1.25 in. All of this activity is elevated with
basically no surface based instability and fairly low MU CAPES
right now. Mainly expecting very heavy rain with high pw values,
and possibly some small hail with the stonger cores along with
lightning. This area will gradually shift eastward overnight and
into Saturday morning into the eastern Ozarks.

Surface low pressure will strengthen today over Kansas as an upper
level shortwave begins to push east out of the Rockies. A warm
front will lift north through the area during the day today,
setting up in central/northern MO. A tight pressure gradient ahead
of the surface low will promote gusty south winds today and could
see some gusts of 30 to 40 mph. Will hold off on a wind advisory
for now, but day shift will want to monitor in our western
counties.

Instability will increase over the western CWA today as we warm up
into the upper 70s to around 80 degrees out there south of the
warm front. Eastern sections may have more cloud cover to deal
with and temperatures will be in the low to mid 70s there. While
surface based CAPES will be over 1500 j/kg in the western CWA by
the late afternoon, there will be a significant thermal cap
between 800mb and 700 mb within this warm sector. So once the
convection from this morning pushes out of the area, the remainder
of the daytime hours will likely be dry.

Convection will develop closer to the low and frontal system today
to the west of the area and eventually form into a thunderstorm
complex during the evening to our northwest and eventually shift
southeast into central MO overnight. The northeast half of the CWA
will likely see the best chances for convection with the best
chances of severe thunderstorms early on as the complex pushes
into central MO. The main severe risk will be with damaging
straight line winds. Additionally, heavy rain and high PW values
may lead to some localized excessive rainfall.


.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 255 AM CDT Sat May 8 2021

The cold front will track southeast through the area on Sunday
with some limited instability along the front as it pushes
through. Most of the convection should be out of the area by 18z
as the front moves out of the area prior to the peak heating of
the day and better instability potential. May have a marginal-
slight risk of storms over the southeast CWA towards the late
morning as it moves out.

High pressure will build into the area behind the front during the
afternoon and into Sunday night and lows will likely dip down into
the 40s as the cooler and drier air mass moves in.

Models have varying solutions for the upcoming work week with the
GFS showing more energy and precipitation, while the ECMWF keeps a
stronger ridge of high pressure over the area and the main area of
precipitation further south of the region. Will continue with the
NBM guidance due to uncertainties and differences in deterministic
models at this time. Cooler than normal temperatures can be
expected for the first half of the week with highs in the 60s and
lows in the 40s, with a warming trend for the latter half of the
week as highs eventually climb back into the 70s by Friday.



&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1152 PM CDT Fri May 7 2021

Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop in the next
couple of hours (a couple already have west of the area). Greatest
probabilities for seeing showers and storms is at KSGF, so
included thunder there. At KJLN and KBBG, included vicinity
showers or tempo showers.

Winds fields will increase tonight, resulting in LLWS at all
sites. That transforms to gusty surface winds on Saturday, which
will persist into Saturday night.

Another round of showers and thunderstorms will be possible
Saturday night into Sunday. Details with this are still uncertain.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Titus


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