Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
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796 FXUS63 KSGF 162338 AFDSGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 638 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Potential for a couple strong to marginally severe storms near and southeast of West Plains this afternoon/evening. - Decreasing chances for widespread rain on Friday. - Above normal temperatures are expected this weekend into early next week with near record temperatures Monday. - Monitor for active weather in the early to middle part of next week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 134 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024 The forecast for this afternoon and evening has been tricky given morning MCV activity that moved through, leaving lingering cloud cover, and addition widespread strong to severe convection that has been occurring over Texas. The Texas convection has resulted in small waves of energy that have been difficult for models to properly resolve, including a couple of MCVs over southeastern Oklahoma. What does this mean for our area? Reduced chances for showers and storms across most of the area this evening, with isolated to scattered convection still possible. The severe threat has shifted southeast from the original area, with the primary concern for a couple strong to marginally severe storms being near and southeast of West Plains. That area has seen plenty of sunshine today and temperatures are near 80. MLCAPE in the warmer are are around 1,000 J/kg with 0-6km shear around 30-35 kts. Primarily severe risks are 1 inch hail and 50-60 mph winds. Tonight may see additional rounds of showers and non-severe thunderstorms, mainly over the southeastern CWA. For Friday, models have backed off of precip chances and amounts. Greatest precip chances are southeast of I-44 at 30-50%, but if the trend continues those may still be too high. Look for highs in the 70s. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 134 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024 A warming trend starts this weekend with highs forecast to be in the 80s starting Saturday. Could see mid to upper 80s for highs Sunday into Tuesday, but that will be dependent on any convection and resulting cloud cover as models hint at storms west of and maybe into the CWA. Attention then turns to potential for severe weather in the Tuesday to Tuesday night time period as models show a strong cold front moving through the region. CIPS analogs and CSU Machine Learning both highlight potential for severe weather, though the finer details will be better resolved over the coming days. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 634 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024 Scattered showers and potentially some thunder will continue to be possible this evening, especially near KBBG. Additional rain is expected to develop tonight, with the greatest chances for persistent rain at KBBG. Fog will be present at all the terminals tonight into Friday morning, however there still remains some uncertainty in how dense it will become. Therefore, continued to include the lower visibilities in Prob30 groups for now until confidence increases. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 100 PM CDT Wed May 15 2024 Record High Temperatures: May 20: KSGF: 90/1964 KJLN: 92/1956 KUNO: 89/1964 May 21: KSGF: 91/1987 KJLN: 91/1987 Record High Minimum Temperatures: May 20: KSGF: 71/1902 May 21: KSGF: 70/1902 && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Titus LONG TERM...Titus AVIATION...Melto CLIMATE...Burchfield