Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 280040

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
740 PM CDT Wed May 27 2020

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 300 PM CDT Wed May 27 2020

The 12Z SGF sounding showed a deep low layer saturated column with
precipitable water values of 1.26", while water vapor imagery shows
well defined nearly stationary circulation over eastern Oklahoma.
Current radar showing scattered convection across the area, with a
better concentration on the periphery of the upper low, aided in
part by an upper level jet rotating around the low. The stronger
cells are producing locally heavy downpours with rainfall rates of 1
to 2 inches per hour. Will continue to see convection into the
evening hours as the upper low remains nearly stationary, and
with these rainfall rates and saturated soils localized flooding
is not out of the question. Look for lows tonight in the upper 50s
to lower 60s.

On Thursday, the upper low pulls into northern Arkansas and weakens
to an open wave by afternoon. Once again will see scattered
convection rotating around this low, with an increase in the
afternoon as instability builds. Not expecting any severe weather,
but again like today, localized areas of heavy rain and flash
flooding/flooding will remain possible. The better chances for rain
looks to be over southeast Kansas and the western Missouri on the
back-side of the low. The clouds and rain chances again will keep
highs just in the middle 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 300 PM CDT Wed May 27 2020

A 300mb Jet will begin to dive southward from the northern plains
Thursday night and this will finally dislodge the upper low from the
area and begin its eastward transition. This will set the stage for
northwest flow from Friday through the weekend as southeast Kansas
and the Missouri Ozarks will be between the trough over the eastern
conus and a building ridge across the Rockies. As a result, a
pleasant and mainly dry period is expected with highs in the mid
and upper 70s and lows in the 50s to around 60. Cannot totally
rule out the potential for some precipitation given the northwest
flow as any weak ripple could produce a few showers and a couple
of the medium range deterministic models is showing this for late
Saturday into Saturday night, but nothing widespread by any means.

Expanding upper level ride and height rises will keep the quiet
weather in tact from Monday through Wednesday. Temperatures will be
on the upswing with highs by Wednesday topping off in the middle and
perhaps upper 80s.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 717 PM CDT Wed May 27 2020

Widely scattered showers with some embedded thunder will continue
to lift northward out of Arkansas this evening. From now until
06z (1 AM), flight categories will largely remain VFR. The
exception for MVFR will be down at the BBG terminal, where
additional showers and thunderstorms would be more prevalent over
the next six hours.

Beyond 06z (1 AM), areas of dense fog are anticipated to develop,
especially across eastern Kansas and far southwestern Missouri.
Short term models are suggesting flight conditions will become
most poor at the JLN terminal, where visibility is expected to
drop below 1 statute mile with ceilings only a couple hundred
feet above ground, or lower. Such solution would put JLN in LIFR
through 12z (7 AM) on Thursday. Elsewhere, slightly better
conditions are forecasted at SGF and BBG; however, poor visibility
and low ceilings will still yield IFR/MVFR at these terminals by
12z (7 AM).

Surface winds will remain light and variable overnight into
Thursday morning.




SHORT TERM...Raberding
LONG TERM...Raberding
AVIATION...Albano is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.