Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 021125
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
525 AM CST Thu Feb 2 2023

Key Messages:

1. Colder conditions tonight into Friday. Wind chill values in
the single digits will occur Friday morning.

2. Gusty southerly winds will usher a warmer air mass into the
area this weekend into early next week.

3. Rain chances return early to middle next week.

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1253 AM CST Thu Feb 2 2023

An upper level shortwave will move through the region by this
evening. Cloud cover will move south of the region allowing for
some sunshine this afternoon with highs in the middle 40s.

Behind the shortwave, high pressure will make its way into the
area and bring a colder airmass with overnight lows falling into
the teens.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 1253 AM CST Thu Feb 2 2023

Friday will be on the cool side as high pressure moves over the
region only warming into the 30s.

A tight pressure gradient develops across the area for Saturday.
This will lead to gusty southwesterly winds with gusts from 30 to
40 mph at times mainly along and north of the plateau.

A warm up then will occur this weekend into next week as an upper
level ridge builds over the region. Highs in the 50s will occur
this weekend with highs in the 50s for much of next week and even
the lower 60s on Monday.

An upper level trough may then impact the region early to the
middle of next week. The ensemble models continue to differ on the
track and timing of this system. With a warmer air mass across the
area and precipitation would likely be rain but there are questions
on when and where rain will develop.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
Issued at 517 AM CST Thu Feb 2 2023

Flight conditions will be VFR through the forecast period for the
Ozarks regions terminals. Calm winds early will become northerly
overnight with some gusts for the KJLN terminal.

Similar flight conditions can be expected for Friday and through
the weekend, however, winds will be gusty through the day on
Saturday.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hatch
LONG TERM...Hatch
AVIATION...Hatch


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