Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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256
FXUS63 KSGF 191740
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1240 PM CDT Sat Oct 19 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 152 AM CDT Sat Oct 19 2019

Upper level short wave energy will track east across the region
today bringing rain showers and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm.
The leading edge of the precipitation will enter western Missouri
around 09Z in association with weak isentropic upglide and
positive vorticity advection.

This activity will then shift east across the Ozarks this morning
with perhaps a slight decrease in coverage. A secondary area of
showers is then expected to develop across eastern Kansas this
morning in association with a weak surface front. These showers
will also track east across the Ozarks from late this morning into
this afternoon.

We tinkered with the idea of removing thunder potential today,
however SREF MUCAPE plumes still indicate high enough percentages
(especially over southern and western Missouri) to carry a slight
chance for a thunderstorm.

Highs today will be somewhat variable due to decent amounts of
cloud cover and that precipitation. The coolest readings should be
across central Missouri with highs in the lower to middle 60s
expected. Areas down around West Plains should push the 70 degree
mark.

Confidence is then increasing in low cloud and fog potential for
tonight as weak surface high pressure settles right over the
Missouri Ozarks. At the very least, confidence is high in the
development of low clouds tonight, especially along and north of
the Ozark Plateau. Lapse rates in the low levels are not
necessarily ideal for a classic dense fog setup. However, there is
plenty of support from both a raw model and MOS guidance
standpoint. It may be one of those situations where stratus
builds down and visibilities vary over short distances. For
starters, we have introduced areas of fog overnight.

One other consideration for tonight was the potential for drizzle.
Some model soundings indicate a near-saturated layer getting deep
enough to support at least a patchy drizzle mention. With
moisture depth still in question and no real areas of low level
upward omega advertised by short term models, will not include
drizzle at this time.

Went with the model consensus for lows tonight with most areas
falling into the middle and upper 40s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 152 AM CDT Sat Oct 19 2019

The low clouds and fog may be a bit slow to dissipate Sunday
morning, especially across central Missouri. Otherwise, we should
see a decrease in clouds during the day on Sunday with dry
conditions expected. Southeasterly surface winds will begin to
increase ahead of the next approaching storm system. High
temperatures should warm into the lower to middle 70s as long as
clouds do not hang around too long.

An upper level low will then track east across the northern and
central Plains with short wave energy rounding the base of this
low across Kansas and northern Oklahoma Sunday night. At the
surface, an occluded front and cold front will trail a surface low
that will slowly track east across South Dakota and into southern
Minnesota from Sunday night into Monday morning. That trailing cold
front will track east into western Missouri Sunday evening and
will likely clear the eastern Ozarks by mid-morning on Monday.

Showers and thunderstorms are initially expected to develop along
that cold front Sunday evening near the I-35 corridor as strong
height falls overspread the region. This activity will quickly
shift east into the Missouri Ozarks later Sunday evening and then
into the eastern Ozarks overnight on Sunday. There is low
potential that storms could also fire out in the warm sector
ahead of the front due to the shear amount of synoptic scale lift
overspreading the region.

Questions still remain regarding the potential for strong to
severe storms. Deep layer and low level shear will certainly be
supportive of severe storms. However, instability still appears
as if it may remain limited as Gulf moisture return will be
tempered. Inspection of SREF plumes and probabilities indicate
that there is a high likelihood that MLCAPE values will remain
below 500 J/kg, with the highest values occurring across south-
central Missouri right ahead of the front Sunday night. Questions
also remain regarding whether or not storms would be able to
become surface based with forecast soundings indicating
substantial capping.

Overall, agree with the Marginal Risk for Sunday night per the
new Day 2 SPC outlook. Locally damaging wind gusts would be the
primary potential severe weather concern. If confidence increases
in higher amounts of instability and/or the potential for surface
based storms, the severe risk may need to be bumped up.

Once that front clears the eastern Ozarks Monday morning, dry
conditions are expected through midweek. Monday and Tuesday look
rather blustery as brisk and gusty west winds wrap around that low
pressure system across the Great Lakes. Cooler temperatures can be
expected for your Monday and Tuesday before a warmup for
Wednesday.

Global models then depict upper level energy digging southeast
across the central U.S. sometime in the later Wednesday into
Thursday time frame. This may bring us our next shot at rain
showers along with another autumn cold front.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1226 PM CDT Sat Oct 19 2019

After ongoing showers near KSGF exit the area, attention will turn
to fog developing across the entire area tonight. Expect LIFR
conditions at all sites, with potential for VLIFR conditions at
KSGF and KJLN. Conditions will probably be slow to improve Sunday
morning.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Schaumann
LONG TERM...Schaumann
AVIATION...Titus



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