909
FXUS63 KSGF 160745
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
245 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and a few thunderstorms likely (60-90% chance) through
  this morning. Marginal risk for severe storms across southern
  Missouri this afternoon. Additional rain chances tonight
  through Friday (60-90% chance).

- Total rainfall amounts through Friday range between 0.5 to 2
  inches with the highest amounts south of Interstate 44.
  Localized flooding may occur across the area.

- Above normal temperatures are expected this weekend into early
  next week with near record temperatures Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 245 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024

This Morning: Scattered showers and thunderstorms are ongoing
across portions of southeast Kansas and southwest Missouri this
morning. This is being supported by shortwave energy sliding
through the region in the vicinity of a frontal boundary.
Moisture advection into the area with a building low-level jet
to the south continues to support efficient rainfall rates
around a 0.5-1.0 inch per a hour. An analysis depicts an
elevated instability axis into the area, with MUCAPE around 500
to 1000 J/kg. In general, the environment is rather unimpressive
when it comes to supporting severe thunderstorms, though a low
(marginal) risk still persists into the area through this
morning for isolated activity. The primary risks will be
damaging wind gusts up to 60 mph and hail up to the size of
quarters. This morning`s batch of showers and thunderstorms is
expected to gradually weaken as it moves east towards the
Highway 65 corridor. HREF highlights the heaviest rainfall
amounts through across southeast Kansas into far southwest
Missouri, with a quick 0.5 to 1.5 inches. This may support a
localized flooding threat.

This Afternoon-Evening: By this afternoon, the remnants of the
overnight cluster of activity and embedded MCV (mesoscale
convective vortex) translates across the Missouri Ozarks.
Guidance has varied of how this feature evolves this afternoon,
as subsidence accompanies the dissipation of the morning
convection. Nonetheless, the latest hi-res guidance hint at mid-
afternoon destabilization across the portions of the area. The
main focus for redevelopment of scattered showers and
thunderstorms this afternoon will be across portions of south
central into southeast Missouri. An isolated strong to severe
thunderstorm is possible in this area, with a SPC Marginal (1/5)
Severe Weather Outlook. Damaging wind gusts up to 60 mph and
hail up the size of quarters are the primary risks. Additional
localized heavy rainfall may accompany this activity through the
afternoon and evening. Elsewhere, periods of dry time can be
expected this afternoon with isolated showers or a rumble of
thunder. Despite the cloud cover and rain chances, highs reach
into the middle 70s.

Tonight-Friday: By tonight, additional shortwave energy slides
south of the region. An associated low-level jet south of the
are will support the development of widespread showers and
a few thunderstorms across northern Oklahoma and Arkansas into
tonight, with southern Missouri on the northern side of the rain
shield into Friday morning. This is reflected with the highest
rain chances across portions of southern Missouri. Rain chances
gradually decrease to north and west of Interstate 44. Expect
this activity to persist through Friday morning into the
afternoon, before slowly sliding east of the area in the
evening. While there is no severe weather expected on Friday,
there continues to be the potential for localized flooding. This
is characterized by PWAT values around 1.2 to 1.5 inches,
supporting efficient rainfall rates. Any areas that see repeat
activity track over the same areas in short periods of time may
be susceptible to flash flooding. HREF Probability Matched-Mean
(PMM) highlights a corridor along the MO/AR border for localized
rainfall amounts pushing 1 to 1.5 inches. Highs on Friday top
out in the lower to middle 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 245 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024

Saturday-Sunday: Ensemble guidance depict rising heights
associated with a building ridge over the central CONUS this
weekend. This shift in the pattern will support a substantial
warm up and drier conditions. On Saturday, highs reach into the
lower to middle 80s. Further strengthening of the ridge into
Sunday supports 850mb temperatures around 18-22C, correlating to
highs soaring into the middle to upper 80s. Rain chances remain
limited to 20 percent or less this weekend.

Next Monday-Wednesday: The warmest day of the forecast period
is expected next Monday as 850mb temperatures reach around
21-23C, supporting widespread highs in the upper 80s to near 90.
Confidence is high given the minimal spread in NBM maximum
temperatures, with the potential for near record highs (see
Climate section below). By Tuesday and Wednesday, the pattern
begins to shift with the potential for a more active stretch of
weather returning to the region. This is reflected with
increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms on Tuesday and
Wednesday. As mentioned in the previous AFD, there is a signal
amongst the CIPS analogs and CSU Machine Learning for a pattern
that may be conducive for severe weather, though the finer
details will be better resolved over the coming days.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1215 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024

Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue to move through the
area through tonight into Thursday morning. Periods of MVFR to
IFR flight conditions expected, with reduced visibilities to 4
miles and ceilings as low as 1500 to 2500 feet. Rain chances
become more sparse through late Thursday morning into the early
afternoon. Winds light and variable overnight, becoming more
south-southwest on Thursday morning. By the afternoon, winds
turn more west-southwest around 5 to 10 knots.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 100 PM CDT Wed May 15 2024

Record High Temperatures:

May 20:
KSGF: 90/1964
KJLN: 92/1956
KUNO: 89/1964

May 21:
KSGF: 91/1987
KJLN: 91/1987


Record High Minimum Temperatures:

May 20:
KSGF: 71/1902

May 21:
KSGF: 70/1902

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Perez
LONG TERM...Perez
AVIATION...Perez
CLIMATE...Burchfield