159
FXUS64 KSHV 030625
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1225 AM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1104 PM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

 - Patchy dense fog possible this morning, increasing chance of
   precipitation this evening/overnight.

 - Precipitation continues through Thursday and Friday, resulting
   in cooler temperatures.

 - Dry, warming conditions begin on Sunday and continue through
   the middle of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1104 PM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

A few things to note about the forecast for the rest of the night.
First, as mentioned in the discussion this afternoon, temperatures
tonight are going to be highly dependent on any cloud cover that
forms or continues. Right now, satellite imagery continues to
show low clouds across northeast and north central Louisiana. This
played a major role in temperatures this afternoon and will
continue to play a major role in temperatures tonight. Initial
thought is that we will see some additional cloud cover develop
which could impact our lows just like last night. Secondly, there
is some potential that some patchy dense fog could develop towards
morning across the majority of the region, with the best chances
across the central portion of our area from the Louisiana/Texas
line in deep east Texas northward into southwest Arkansas.

Regardless of how cool we get tonight, temperatures will rebound
quickly by this afternoon as high temperatures return to the lower
50s across our northern zones to around 60 degrees across some of
our far southern zones thanks to a transition to southerly winds
ushering in these "warmer" conditions. By this evening, we will
see an increase in moisture from the south, which will bring a
return of showers to the area Wednesday night and continuing
through Friday afternoon. One thing to note about the forecast for
Wednesday night, there is some potential that there will be
drizzle across some of our far northern zones, something I decided
not to mention at this time because confidence is not super high,
but worth a mention.

Things begin to dry out across the region on Sunday, a trend that
is expected to continue into the middle of next week. Something to
keep an eye on with the longer term of the forecast, the Climate
Prediction Center 6-10 day outlook indicates probabilities of near
normal temperatures and what I think is more concerning, higher
probabilities of below normal precipitation. Looking even further,
the 8-14 day shows higher probabilities of above normal
temperatures and continued below normal precipitation. So, while
it might be a nuisance, enjoy the rain while we can. /33/

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1220 AM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

For the 03/06z TAF period...VFR conditions at all sites, except
KMLU, where low cigs remain. Low cigs will start to return
westward overnight along with some fog development. This fog
should lift by mid-morning and cigs will start to scatter out.
However, low cigs and reduced flight categories will return
tomorrow afternoon, with some light rain and drizzle to follow by
the end of the TAF period. /20/

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1117 AM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  45  50  40  51 /  80  60  50  30
MLU  42  49  39  49 /  80  70  70  40
DEQ  36  45  31  49 /  10  20  30  10
TXK  40  47  35  50 /  30  30  40  20
ELD  37  45  32  47 /  60  40  50  20
TYR  45  50  39  53 /  60  50  30  20
GGG  43  50  37  52 /  70  50  40  20
LFK  47  53  40  53 /  90  80  50  40

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&


$$

DISCUSSION...33
AVIATION...20