958
FXUS64 KSHV 111213
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
613 AM CST Wed Feb 11 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1221 AM CST Wed Feb 11 2026

 - A weak cold front continues to make slow but steady progress
   into the region this evening through the overnight hours.

 - Patchy light rain showers will expand SE with the cold front
   through late Wed morning with a brief post-frontal cooldown.

 - Temperatures will return well above average by Friday under
   increasing southerly flow, setting up an active day of showers
   and storms on Saturday as a potent upper-level trough arrives.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1221 AM CST Wed Feb 11 2026

Despite the arrival of a weak cold front this evening, convection
has remained light rain on rather light and patchy and generally
confined along and north of the I-30 corridor thus far. Looking at
our 00Z KSHV sounding, a fairly sizable layer of dry air remains
in place from around 3Kft up to roughly 12Kft so this largely
limited how much rainfall has occurred farther south and east
ahead of the front. As we move through the overnight hours and
into Wednesday morning, these pockets of patchy light rain should
likewise expand SE with the slowly advancing cold front. Overall,
rainfall amounts will be light where it does occur with many areas
likely seeing a trace of rain at best or even none at all given
the weak forcing and lack of deep layer moisture.

Any lingering showers should be ending by around midday or early
afternoon across our extreme SE zones with the front eventually
clearing the region late in the day on Wednesday. Cloud cover will
gradually follow suit through Wednesday evening with much cooler
post-frontal temperatures for lows by daybreak Thursday morning.
Expect a range of lows from the upper 30s in far northern zones
across parts of SE OK and SW AR while the 40s to near 50 degrees
will be common over the remainder of the region. A very pleasant
Thursday with slightly milder temperatures expected for one more
day before the frontal boundary now south along the coast begins
to retreat back northward as a warm front by late Thursday into
Friday.

Returning warm air and moisture advection will usher in higher
temperatures and increasing cloud cover once again for Friday
and through the first half of the weekend. Isolated to widely
scattered convection should remain largely confined to our NW
zones during the day on Friday with the warm front lifting as far
north as the Red River in NE TX, SE OK and eastward into SW AR.
Convection will likely expand a bit more through Friday night,
especially along and north of I-30 invof of the advancing warm
front.

Additional support for more widespread convection in the form of
a rather potent mid/upper-level trough will arrive on Saturday.
This trough will rapidly pivot across the Southern Plains by late
morning through the afternoon while the aforementioned sfc warm
front slowly lifts a bit farther north into our region, allowing
for at least some very low-end instability by the afternoon. As
the upper trough pivots eastward across TX and drives a cold
front into our region, some stronger thunderstorms may accompany
this increasing convection by mid to late afternoon and possibly
through early evening. While instability will be quite limited
overall, deep-layer shear will be much more robust so cannot rule
out at least a low-end severe threat across parts of our region.
For now, minor guidance discrepancies in the timing and track of
the upper trough continue to make this assessment more uncertain.
Future updates should bring more clarity in all aspects of this
forecast, especially with another weekend of planned Mardi Gras
parade activities.

Although the bulk of convection should be ending early on Sunday,
a slower progression of the trough with closed low as resolved by
the GFS could allow for some lingering convection Sunday. So for
now, NBM guidance is hedging that way before confidence increases
in a dry weather pattern returning by early next week.

/19/

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 603 AM CST Wed Feb 11 2026

For the ArkLaTex terminals, MVFR/VFR with weak fropa now past
KTXK/KSHV/KLFK. Small line of -SHRA over S AR, yet to swing over
KELD. Light SW wind is bcmg NW for this morning and N/NE for the
aftn5-10KT. Skies will generally clear from W to E across the
region and then SE winds return Thursday ahead of next wet fropa
late Saturday. NW winds slowly clear skies on Sunday with a few
afternoon showers with still above average heating and the
departing upper storm overhead. Warmer and dry to start next week.
/24/


&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1221 AM CST Wed Feb 11 2026

Spotter activation is not expected through Friday.

/19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  73  48  72  53 /  10   0   0   0
MLU  71  45  70  51 /  20   0   0   0
DEQ  68  38  67  45 /   0   0   0  10
TXK  69  43  70  50 /   0   0   0  10
ELD  67  40  68  46 /  20   0   0   0
TYR  71  49  75  56 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  73  47  74  53 /  10   0   0   0
LFK  77  52  76  56 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&


$$

DISCUSSION...19
AVIATION...24