336
FXUS64 KSHV 052303
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
503 PM CST Fri Dec 5 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 955 AM CST Fri Dec 5 2025

 - Damp and dreary conditions will stick around until sunshine
   returns on Sunday.

 - A warming trend will bring temperatures back into the mid and
   upper 60s by the middle of next week.

 - The next earliest opportunity for cool temperatures and rain
   may come late next week or early next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 955 AM CST Fri Dec 5 2025

The final areas of light rain or drizzle in our far southeastern
zones should end this evening as the forecast period begins,
leaving the region chilly and dry through the overnight hours. The
recent rainfall and already moist air mass present will create a
risk for fog early tomorrow morning, especially for the western
half of the CWA. As of now, the fog is expected to remain patchy.
However, the evening forecast package may update the fog coverage
or intensity depending on future model runs. The region will
remain cloudy until a drier airmass moves in from the northwest on
Sunday.

A wintertime northwest flow pattern will help keep conditions dry
and clear for next week. Afternoon high temperatures will be near
average for the first part of the week-- mostly in the upper 50s
to low 60s. The combination of clear skies, subsidence, and a
southerly wind shift will begin a warming trend midweek and bring
unseasonably warm temperatures back to the area. Much of the
region could see temperatures in the mid to upper 60s by Wednesday
or Thursday. Long range models are beginning to hint at a low to
mid-level boundary moving through the Four State Region during the
day on Friday, which will likely be the earliest that we could see
cooler air and rain chances return.

57

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 457 PM CST Fri Dec 5 2025

Prevailing VFR conditions across most of our airspace attm but
MVFR ceilings were still noted near and northwest of the I-30
Corridor in the VCTY of the TXK terminal and also across portions
of Central LA. In addition, mid and high clouds were plentiful
across our airspace with ceilings near or above 10kft as well.

As we go through the night, model time height cross sections are
supportive of patchy fog across most of our airspace after
midnight and the development of IFR or LIFR ceilings as well. Not
sold on just how dense this fog will become so for the 00z TAF
package, have introduced lower end IFR VSBYs to go along with LIFR
ceilings after 06z and prevailing those conditions through 15z Sat
Morning before VSBYs improve and ceilings as well. We should
return to VFR conditions across all but the TXK and ELD terminals
where MVFR ceilings may be stubborn to lift and/or scatter out
through the end of the TAF period.

13

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 553 AM CST Fri Dec 5 2025

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  39  61  50  64 /  10   0   0  10
MLU  38  58  45  62 /  10   0   0  20
DEQ  31  54  38  58 /   0   0   0   0
TXK  35  58  44  61 /   0   0   0  10
ELD  31  56  42  58 /  10   0   0  10
TYR  39  63  47  62 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  37  63  47  64 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  40  66  50  69 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&


$$

DISCUSSION...57
AVIATION...13