301
FXUS64 KSJT 020628
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
1228 AM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

...New LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Chances are increasing for a line or broken line of showers and
  thunderstorms to develop from late Monday afternoon through
  Monday night, with the highest chances east of an Abilene to
  Big Lake line. Large hail and damaging winds will be the main
  concerns.

- Drier weather for the rest of the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 115 PM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

Mild temperatures are forecast overnight with lows in the
low to mid 60s. These temperatures are 10 to 15 degrees above
seasonal normals. On Monday, a large upper level trough across the
western CONUS will track east toward the Great Plains. Ahead of this
feature, surface moisture will quickly increase with dewpoints well
into the 60s and even approaching 70 on Monday. Morning clouds will
give way to mostly sunny skies in the afternoon allowing
temperatures to warm into the low to mid 80s. This will result in an
increasingly unstable environment ahead of a dryline that will be
located just west of the forecast area by late afternoon. A Pacific
front will approach our western counties late Monday afternoon or
early Monday evening, eventually overtaking the dryline. High
resolution models indicate isolated showers and thunderstorms
developing by early evening along the front/dryline, mainly across
our western counties. Eventually a line, or broken line of showers
and thunderstorms is forecast to track east across the area. The
highest rain chances will be across our southeast counties where
medium to high (70-90%) rain chances are forecast. Low to medium (15-
60%) rain chances are forecast elsewhere. A few strong to severe
thunderstorms are possible, with damaging wind being the main
concerns although some hail is possible. In addition, brief heavy
rainfall is possible.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 1227 AM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

Looks like a dry and quiet weather pattern this week through next
weekend as additional storm systems are not expected until after
the long term period. A low chance of rain returns next weekend.
Highs will be in the upper 60s and 70s with overnight lows in the
40s to lower 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1109 PM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

VFR conditions will begin to detoriate into MVFR to IFR Monday
morning, with MVFR to IFR ceilings and some patchy fog expected to
develop between 10Z to 12Z Monday morning. Expect ceilings to
begin improving to VFR and MVFR by late Monday morning into the
early afternoon hours. Some gusty southerly winds are expected to
redevelop mid to late Monday morning, around 10 to 15 kts and
gusts up to 25 kts. There is some potential for showers and
thunderstorms at the tail end of the TAF package near KBBD, where
a preliminary PROB30 group was included to show for the start of
storms and shower development.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     84  55  73  50 /  30  50   0   0
San Angelo  82  54  73  47 /  20  40   0   0
Junction    82  57  72  46 /   0  90   0   0
Brownwood   84  56  73  47 /  10  80   0   0
Sweetwater  84  54  72  51 /  20  20   0   0
Ozona       79  55  71  49 /  10  60   0   0
Brady       82  57  71  49 /   0  80   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Daniels
LONG TERM....21
AVIATION...TP