090
FXUS64 KSJT 071857
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
157 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

...New LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 108 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

The center of upper level high pressure will slowly move east,
bringing the region into weak southwest flow aloft Saturday. West
Central Texas, however, will still be dominated by the upper high
pressure with warm and dry conditions. Highs in the upper 90s to
102 are expected with the warmest temperatures in the Big
Country, Concho Valley, and around Junction. Dew points will not
be as high, Saturday, with 60s falling into the 50s in the
afternoon. This will keep heat indices mainly in the 90s.
Southerly winds will be breezy at times, particularly in the Big
Country, where gusts of 30 mph possible.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Friday)
Issued at 155 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

The upper level ridge responsible for our recent hot and dry pattern
will begin to break down late Saturday into Sunday and will shift
east into the Southeastern CONUS. A weak frontal boundary is
expected to drop into the Red River region by early Sunday. With
ample daytime heating, this front isn`t expected to make much in the
way of progress through the day but will begin to sag south into our
area late Sunday afternoon and evening. With an increase in upper
level support as shortwave impulses in the west to northwest flow
aloft pass overhead, showers and storms are expected to develop
generally along and north of the frontal boundary. The best rain
chances currently look to be between 00Z Monday and 06Z Tuesday for
the Big Country. There will be plenty of instability to work with
Monday afternoon with MLCAPE values over 1500 J/kg and effective
shear in the 30-40 kt range. Chances for showers and storms
continue into Tuesday but with the frontal boundary well to our
north and east by then, a lack of low level convergence makes
nailing down location of development a little more complicated.
Have kept PoPs largely confined to the Big Country and Heartland
where upper level support will be better. Temperatures will be
"coolest" on Monday with highs ranging from the mid 80s in the Big
Country to the mid 90s along the I-10 corridor. Temperatures will
be a touch higher for Tuesday but still comparable.

Moving into midweek, another upper level ridge begins to build into
the Southern Rockies, with its western periphery extending into West
Texas. This will work to limit/cut off rain chances through the end
of the work week and start us back on a warming trend. The end of
next week will be a similar pattern to what we`re currently seeing
with highs in mid 90s for our eastern counties thanks to mid 60+
dewpoints and 100-104 in our western counties with mid 50s to low
60s dew points.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1138 AM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

VFR next 24 hours. Gusty south winds this afternoon will weaken
early evening and shift southeast. South winds then increase and
and become gusty mid morning Saturday as the nighttime inversion
breaks.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     76  99  75  98 /   0   0   0  10
San Angelo  74 102  75 101 /   0   0   0  10
Junction    71 100  72 100 /   0   0   0  10
Brownwood   72  96  71  94 /   0   0   0  10
Sweetwater  76 101  75  99 /   0   0   0  10
Ozona       71  97  73  98 /   0   0   0   0
Brady       72  96  71  95 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....50
AVIATION...04