


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX
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601 FXUS64 KSJT 172248 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 548 PM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Low to medium chances for showers and thunderstorms on Saturday, mainly over the Big Country. - Elevated fire weather conditions this weekend. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Saturday) Issued at 210 PM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025 High-res CAMS continue to indicate a few thunderstorms developing in the higher terrain to our west late this afternoon and trying to sneak into our western counties. Will keep any mentionable PoPs out of the forecast given the low confidence but will continue to monitor through the remainder of the afternoon and evening. Better rain chances will arrive tomorrow morning. A shortwave trough over southern Arizona is forecast to swing eastward into New Mexico and the Texas Panhandle by Saturday morning. Increasing large scale ascent in tandem with a surface trough/dryline will lead to the development of scattered showers and thunderstorms in the morning hours. The highest PoPS will be in the Big Country and northern Concho Valley, with rain chances tapering off further south toward the I-10 corridor. Severe weather is not expected, and rainfall amounts will remain relatively light given the progressive nature of this system. Storms should clear our area by the early afternoon as the trough exits off to the east. Much drier air will filter into the region behind the front, with dewpoints dropping off into the 30s and 40s. Highs will climb into the upper 80s and lower 90s with westerly downslope winds and mostly sunny skies in the afternoon. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through next Friday) Issued at 128 PM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025 A roller-coaster temperature forecast appears in store for the early to middle part of next week. Starting with Saturday night into Sunday, a cold front will move quickly southward through Texas. Behind the front a surface high will move through central Texas and lower the high temperatures to around 80 degrees. These cooler conditions will be short-lived, however, as the surface high will quickly depart to the east by Sunday night. Strong southerly return flow will set up for Monday as an upper-level trough deepens over the northern Plains. Westerly low-level (850-950mb layer) winds of 30-40KTs look to develop for much of Monday, which should result in winds close to 20 MPH when mixed down to the surface. Some gusts near 25 MPH could occur. The strong return flow should also advect a warm airmass back in to the region and push high temperatures into the low to mid 90s. For Tuesday and Wednesday, models are in good agreement that another southward-moving cold front will drop down through Texas. This one will be dry this time and should lower high temperatures to around 80 degrees for Tuesday. Temperatures are likely to warm back up to the upper 80s on Wednesday as another disturbance looks to roll into the southern Plains. This system may provide the next best chance for rain but model consensus shows most of west central Texas in a dry slot. For now, overall chances were kept to less than 15% for Thursday. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 541 PM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025 Band of showers and isolated thunderstorms will be affecting KABI and KSJT towards 14Z Saturday morning, moving east 17Z. South winds will shift west as storms move through. Could see temporary reductions to MVFR visibilities in rain and gusty winds to 20 KTS, particularly at KABI. MVFR stratus otherwise will move northwest into KBBD and KJCT late tonight, and KSOA toward daybreak, scattering out mid/late morning. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 67 89 54 79 / 20 50 0 0 San Angelo 63 89 54 81 / 10 30 0 0 Junction 63 92 55 84 / 0 10 10 0 Brownwood 64 89 53 79 / 10 40 10 0 Sweetwater 65 87 53 79 / 30 40 0 0 Ozona 63 89 55 82 / 10 10 0 0 Brady 65 89 56 79 / 0 20 10 0 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...42 LONG TERM....SK AVIATION...04