786
FXUS64 KSJT 111916
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
116 PM CST Tue Nov 11 2025

...New SHORT TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Critical fire weather conditions this afternoon. A Red Flag
  Warning is in effect for all of West Central Texas until 6 PM
  today.

- Unseasonably warm temperatures return for the middle to latter
  part of the week.

- Cooler temperatures and low probability rain chances (20%-30%)
  return this weekend into early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 115 PM CST Tue Nov 11 2025

Our area is currently under west-northwest flow aloft, with an upper
ridge over the southwestern CONUS. Gusty south-southwest winds are
occurring today with a lee surface trough to our west and an
increased pressure gradient. With a combination of the gusty winds
and dry air (relative humidity values 15-20 percent), a Red Flag
Warning is in effect until 6 PM. Winds will decrease tonight, but
will stay high enough to limit overnight lows to the 40s. Skies will
be clear.

On Wednesday, a weak cold front will sag south into our northern
counties. The main effect of this front will be a wind shift to
north and northeast winds, and highs for that area will be similar
to today. Farther south across the rest of our area, temperatures
will be warmer than today with highs in the upper 70s and lower 80s.
For these areas, south-southwest winds will continue but wind speeds
will be weaker than today. Expect sunny skies for Wednesday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 1251 PM CST Tue Nov 11 2025

Upper level ridging will move in on Wednesday, eventually
transitioning to southwesterly flow by Friday afternoon. Under
this ridging, temperatures will warm significantly, into the 80s,
and even close to 90 degrees Thursday and Friday. Forecast highs
Thursday and Friday are near or warmer than current record highs
at Abilene and San Angelo, so records could be tied, or set at
either location. Abilene has the best chance of new records being
set, particularly on Friday when the forecast is 87, and the
current record is 84, set in 1989.

An upper level low is expected to approach the southwestern U. S.
this weekend, maintaining southwest flow through the weekend.
There is also a low (20%) probability for some showers and a few
thunderstorms, mainly from Sunday into early next week. As the
upper low lifts to the northeast and moves over the Four Corners
region, it will open up into a wave. With the low that far north,
models have trended slightly drier for our area, which makes
sense, as most of the lift associated with the low will be farther
north. However, the low will lower mid and upper level heights in
our area, which should moderate temperatures, cooling us down
into the 70s early next week, which will still be several degrees
warmer than normal highs, generally in the upper 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1114 AM CST Tue Nov 11 2025

VFR conditions and clear skies are expected through the next 24
hours. Gusty south-southwest winds will continue through this
afternoon, with gusts 25-30 knots. For KABI, winds will decrease
but remain somewhat gusty tonight before decreasing to 5-10 knots
late (after 09Z). For KSJT/KBBD, south-southwest winds will
decrease to 10-12 knots this evening, and then drop off to 5-10
knots in the post-Midnight hours. Our southern terminals (KJCT and
KSOA) can expect south-southwest winds dropping off to 5 knots or
less later this evening and overnight. The KABI terminal may have a
wind shift to north winds with a weak frontal passage by or shortly
after 18Z Wednesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     49  80  51  83 /   0   0   0   0
San Angelo  46  83  48  83 /   0   0   0   0
Junction    44  83  49  83 /   0   0   0   0
Brownwood   44  80  48  83 /   0   0   0   0
Sweetwater  49  78  51  83 /   0   0   0   0
Ozona       43  80  48  80 /   0   0   0   0
Brady       47  82  51  82 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 6 PM CST this evening for Brown-Callahan-
Coke-Coleman-Concho-Crockett-Fisher-Haskell-Irion-Jones-Kimble-
Mason-McCulloch-Menard-Nolan-Runnels-San Saba-Schleicher-
Shackelford-Sterling-Sutton-Taylor-Throckmorton-Tom Green.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...19
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...19