601
FXUS64 KSJT 172248
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
548 PM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Low to medium chances for showers and thunderstorms on
  Saturday, mainly over the Big Country.

- Elevated fire weather conditions this weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 210 PM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025

High-res CAMS continue to indicate a few thunderstorms developing
in the higher terrain to our west late this afternoon and trying
to sneak into our western counties. Will keep any mentionable
PoPs out of the forecast given the low confidence but will
continue to monitor through the remainder of the afternoon and
evening. Better rain chances will arrive tomorrow morning. A
shortwave trough over southern Arizona is forecast to swing
eastward into New Mexico and the Texas Panhandle by Saturday
morning. Increasing large scale ascent in tandem with a surface
trough/dryline will lead to the development of scattered showers
and thunderstorms in the morning hours. The highest PoPS will be
in the Big Country and northern Concho Valley, with rain chances
tapering off further south toward the I-10 corridor. Severe
weather is not expected, and rainfall amounts will remain
relatively light given the progressive nature of this system.
Storms should clear our area by the early afternoon as the trough
exits off to the east. Much drier air will filter into the region
behind the front, with dewpoints dropping off into the 30s and
40s. Highs will climb into the upper 80s and lower 90s with
westerly downslope winds and mostly sunny skies in the afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Friday)
Issued at 128 PM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025

A roller-coaster temperature forecast appears in store for the early
to middle part of next week.  Starting with Saturday night into
Sunday, a cold front will move quickly southward through Texas.
Behind the front a surface high will move through central Texas and
lower the high temperatures to around 80 degrees.  These cooler
conditions will be short-lived, however, as the surface high will
quickly depart to the east by Sunday night.  Strong southerly return
flow will set up for Monday as an upper-level trough deepens over
the northern Plains.  Westerly low-level (850-950mb layer) winds of
30-40KTs look to develop for much of Monday, which should result in
winds close to 20 MPH when mixed down to the surface.  Some gusts
near 25 MPH could occur.  The strong return flow should also advect
a warm airmass back in to the region and push high temperatures into
the low to mid 90s.

For Tuesday and Wednesday, models are in good agreement that another
southward-moving cold front will drop down through Texas.  This one
will be dry this time and should lower high temperatures to around
80 degrees for Tuesday.  Temperatures are likely to warm back up to
the upper 80s on Wednesday as another disturbance looks to roll into
the southern Plains.  This system may provide the next best chance
for rain but model consensus shows most of west central Texas in a
dry slot.  For now, overall chances were kept to less than 15% for
Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 541 PM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025

Band of showers and isolated thunderstorms will be affecting KABI
and KSJT towards 14Z Saturday morning, moving east 17Z. South
winds will shift west as storms move through. Could see temporary
reductions to MVFR visibilities in rain and gusty winds to 20 KTS,
particularly at KABI. MVFR stratus otherwise will move northwest
into KBBD and KJCT late tonight, and KSOA toward daybreak,
scattering out mid/late morning.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     67  89  54  79 /  20  50   0   0
San Angelo  63  89  54  81 /  10  30   0   0
Junction    63  92  55  84 /   0  10  10   0
Brownwood   64  89  53  79 /  10  40  10   0
Sweetwater  65  87  53  79 /  30  40   0   0
Ozona       63  89  55  82 /  10  10   0   0
Brady       65  89  56  79 /   0  20  10   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...42
LONG TERM....SK
AVIATION...04